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Astros vs. Red Sox,
9-28-2017 - Expert Prediction

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#963 Houston
Astros
#964 Boston
Red Sox

Thursday, September 28, 2017 at 7:10pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

Houston Astros

-

W's
L's
0
ERA
0
WHIP

Boston Red Sox

-

W's
L's
0
ERA
0
WHIP

Betting Trends

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Houston Astros (97-60 SU, 83-74 RL, 78-70-9 O/U) vs Boston Red Sox (91-66 SU, 82-75 RL, 68-83-6 O/U)

When: 7:10 PM EDT, Thursday, September 28, 2017

Where: Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts

Lines: Boston -113/ Houston +103

Total: 9.5

Thursday evening bases and the American League West will grapple with the American League East as the Houston Astros take on the Boston Red Sox in game one of their four-game series from Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts. Pitching Probables: Brad Peacock (12-2, 2.98 ERA) will toe the slab for the Astros in this one and he will be opposed by Eduardo Rodriguez (6-6, 3.91 ERA).

The Astros Have Been Crushing The Ball Of Late

The Houston Astros are heading to the postseason and they still have a shot at grabbing the best record in the American League. They come into this series off a three-game set with the Rangers and they really had some fun at the plate in that series. The result of game three is not known as of this writing, but the Astros pounded the Rangers 11-2 in game one and then followed that up with a 14-3 win in game two. They have now averaged 6.20 rpg in their last 10 games. The pitching has been solid this year, but even better of late as they have allowed just 2.80 rpg in their last 10 games. This is a team that is heading to the postseason with plenty of momentum. They can pitch, they can hit and they play very well on the road as they have gone 49-27 away from home this year and have averaged 6.14 rpg and have allowed 4.71 rpg in those games. The Astros will trot out Brad Peacock in this one and he has gone 12-2 with a 2.98 ERA in 33 games (20 starts) on the year overall, including 2-0 with a 2.55 ERA in his last three starts and 5-2 with a 3.16 ERA in 17 games (nine starts) here at home. Peacock has gone 7-2 with a 2.69 ERA in 20 games (19 starts) in Sept/ Oct and he is 0-2 with a 12.38 ERA in three career starts against the Red Sox, including 0-1 with an 11.74 ERA in two starts here at Fenway Park.

Houston has been a strong offensive team this year so far as they come in ranked 1st in the league in scoring, putting up 5.49 rpg, while also ranking 1st in hitting at .281 and 4th in homers with 230. On the mound, they have been solid so far as they come in ranked 11th in the league in ERA at 4.15, while also ranking 9th in WHIP at 1.28.

Red Sox Look To Win The Division

Just like the Astros, who are playing for homefield advantage in the American League playoffs, the Red Sox have plenty to play for in this series as they are looking to win the American League East. It is the only division in baseball that has yet to be decided. As of this writing, the Red Sox had a three-game lead over the Yankees, with both teams having just five games left. Boston just took on the Toronto Blue Jays at home and lost the first two games in that series, which did not help at all, but they still have a great shot at winning the division. Despite the two losses, the Red Sox are 14-5 in their last 19 games and if the playoffs were to start today, then they would face these same Houston Astros. That would be a fun series and would pit the great pitching of the Red Sox against the best offense in the league. Boston has gone 46-30 at home for the year and they have averaged 4.79 rpg and have allowed 4.21 rpg in those games. Eduardo Rodriguez will toe the slab for the Red Sox in this one and he has gone 6-6 with a 3.91 ERA in 24 games (23 starts) on the year, including 2-1 with a 1.40 ERA in his last three starts and 2-1 with a 3.81 ERA in 10 starts here at home. Rodriguez has gone 5-3 with a 2.50 ERA in 14 career starts in Sept/ Oct and he has gone 8-7 with a 4.46 ERA in 31 career starts in this park, while against the Astros he has gone 0-0 with a 1.80 ERA in one start.

The Red Sox have been a solid offensive team so far as they come in ranked 10th in the league in scoring, putting up 4.85 rpg, while also ranking 14th in hitting at .258 and 27th in homers with 163. On the mound, they have been very strong so far as they come in ranked 3rd in the league in ERA at 3.66, while also ranking 5th in WHIP at 1.24.

Trends

Houston is:

  • 5-1 in their last six vs. a team with a winning record
  • 19-7 in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600

Boston is:

  • 1-4 in Rodriguez’s last five starts with four days of rest
  • 1-6 in Rodriguez’s last seven starts during game one of a series

This has a chance to be a dynamite series and it could very well be a preview of the ALDS, especially if the Sox play well in this series. That Astros are rolling right now on offense and Brad Peacock has been very solid on the mound for them. Eduardo Rodriguez has been solid for the Red Sox, but does Boston have enough offense to win this one. They have been a decent offensive team this year, but the Astros are the best offensive team in the league and just scored 25 runs in their first two games with the Rangers. The Red Sox need this game more, but I feel they are at a disadvantage on the mound and at the plate in this one. Take the Astros to grab a big win in game one.  

Pick: Houston +103

David Hess (@DavidHess311)

I have always had a fascination with numbers and sports, so I combined the two to become a handicapper and a blogger. I love sports and I love writing about them and all the info I put in my blogs is well-thought-out and well-researched. I am a big fan of all the major sports and the colleges, plus I know golf pretty well, tennis and the WNBA. I am very versatile. Hope you enjoy my content.

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