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Rays vs. Yankees,
9-28-2017 - Expert Prediction

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#961 Tampa Bay
Rays
#962 New York
Yankees

Thursday, September 28, 2017 at 7:05pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

Tampa Bay Rays

-

W's
L's
0
ERA
0
WHIP

New York Yankees

-

W's
L's
0
ERA
0
WHIP

Betting Trends

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Tampa Bay Rays (76-81 SU, 74-83 RL, 77-77-3 O/U) vs New York Yankees (88-69 SU, 86-71 RL, 82-72-3 O/U)

When: 7:05 PM EDT, Thursday, September 28, 2017

Where: Yankee Stadium in The Bronx, New York

Lines: New York -190/ Tampa Bay +177

Total: 9.5

MLB action within the American League East this evening as the Tampa Bay Rays invade Yankee Stadium in The Bronx, New York to grapple with the New York Yankees in the final game of their three-game series. The Yankees lead the season series 11-6. Pitching Probables: Jake Faria (5-4, 3.33 ERA) gets the nod for the Rays in this one and he will be opposed by Sonny Gray (10-11, 3.31 ERA).  

Blake Snell Struggles In Game One

The Tampa Bay Rays have nothing left to play for this year, except for maybe keeping the Yankees from moving closer to the Red Sox in the American League. Well, in game one of this series on Tuesday, they did not do a good job as they lost by a score of 6-1. That loss eliminated them from playoff contention. Blake Snell has not pitched all that well this year for the Rays and he only lasted one inning in his loss against the Yankees. Snell allowed four ERs on four hits and four walks in that inning to fall to 4-7 with a 4.27 ERA on the year. The Rays are now just 6-11 in their last 17 games as they continue to slide down the stretch of the season. They were in the race for a playoff spot for much of the year, but just simply ran out of gas. Tampa Bay has gone 37-42 on the road and have averaged 4.30 rpg and have allowed 4.72 rpg in those games. Getting the nod for the Rays will be Jake Faria and he has gone 5-4 with a 3.33 ERA in 15 games (13 starts) in this his first year in the league, including 0-3 with a 4.67 ERA in his last three starts and 2-2 with a 3.56 ERA in eight games (seven starts) on the road. He faced the Yanks once this year and allowed three ERs on three hits and five walks in 4.0 innings of work in the game. The Rays won the game 5-3 and he got a no-decision. Faria was 6-1 with a 3.07 ERA in 11 starts at Durham (AAA) this year.   

Tampa Bay has been a bit below average on offense this year as they come in ranked 26th in the league in scoring, putting up 4.25 rpg, while also ranking 26th in hitting at .244 and 7th in homers with 220. On the mound, they have been solid so far as they come in ranked 10th in the league in ERA at 4.02, while also ranking 7th in WHIP at 1.27.

Yankees Inch Closer To Red Sox

The New York Yankees will be in the postseason this year, no matter what, but they would love to get there by winning the American League East than to have to play the wildcard game. The Yanks are still a longshot to win the division as they are three games out with just three games to go after this one. Their last series of the year will be at home against the Blue Jays, while the Red Sox have four games at home against Houston to end their season. The Yanks got to three games out thanks to their 6-1 win in game one of this series, while the Red Sox lost to Toronto on the same night. Jordan Montgomery allowed just one ER on six hits in 6.0 innings of work to improve to 9-7 with a 3.96 ERA on the year, while Starlin Castro hit his 15th homer of the year in the win. If the Yanks have to play the wildcard game, they will get it here at home where they have gone 48-28 on the year, averaging 5.68 rpg and allowing 3.97 rpg in those games. Toeing the rubber for the Yankees in this one will be Sonny Gray and he has gone 10-11 with a 3.31 ERA in 26 starts on the year overall, including 4-6 with a 3.12 ERA in 10 starts as a member of the Yankees and 1-2 with a 4.00 ERA in his last three starts. Gray has gone 8-8 with a 3.94 ERA in 22 starts in Sept/ Oct and he is 2-2 with a 4.35 ERA in five starts in his career here at Yankee Stadium, while against the Rays in his career he has gone 4-3 with a 2.47 ERA in eight starts.

The Yankees have been a strong offensive team so far as they come in ranked 2nd in the league in scoring, putting up 5.34 rpg, while also ranking 7th in hitting at .262 and 2nd in homers with 232. On the mound, they have been very solid as well as they come in ranked 5th in the league in ERA at 3.76, while also ranking 3rd in WHIP at 1.22.

Trends

Tampa Bay is:

  • 17-40 in their last 57 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600
  • 3-7 in their last 10 road games

New York is:

  • 10-1 in their last 11 home games
  • 12-3 in their last 15 games vs. a right-handed starter

The Blue Jays are really struggling down the stretch as they seem to have run out of gas. The Yankees still have a shot at the division title, but still, no matter what happens the rest of the way, they at least know that they have a home game in the wildcard game in their back pockets. Sonny Gray has pitched very well for the Yankees this year, but still he doesn’t have a great record as his team has failed to hold leads for him or just failed to give him much run support. I see the offense waking up some for him in this game as the Yankees really need this game in the worst way and they have been playing far better than the Rays of late. Big win for the Yankees in this one, especially since the Rays are 7-22 in their last 29 games here in New York.

Pick: New York -190

The New York Yankees have been very hot on offense of late and they average 5.68 rpg at home, while the Tampa Bay Rays are a team that hits a lot of homers and Yankees Stadium is a hitters park, but can all that continue in this one? The Yankees have Sonny Gray on the mound and while he has a 3.12 ERA with the Yankees, he also has a 3.12 ERA in those games, plus he has a 2.47 ERA in eight career starts against the Rays. Jake Faria has pitched well for the Rays this year as he has a 3.33 ERA overall, including a 3.56 ERA on the road and his road starts have averaged just 7.71 rpg. HIs last nine starts have all put up nine or less runs while his last three starts have averaged just 4.00 rpg.  I sense a low-scoring game in this one.

Pick: Under 9.5

Confidence: 4

David Hess (@DavidHess311)

I have always had a fascination with numbers and sports, so I combined the two to become a handicapper and a blogger. I love sports and I love writing about them and all the info I put in my blogs is well-thought-out and well-researched. I am a big fan of all the major sports and the colleges, plus I know golf pretty well, tennis and the WNBA. I am very versatile. Hope you enjoy my content.

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