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Reds vs. Brewers,
9-28-2017 - Pick and Prediction

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#951 Cincinnati
Reds
#952 Milwaukee
Brewers

Thursday, September 28, 2017 at 4:10pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

Cincinnati Reds

-

W's
L's
0
ERA
0
WHIP

Milwaukee Brewers

-

W's
L's
0
ERA
0
WHIP

Betting Trends

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Cincinnati Reds (66-91; 81-70-6 O/U) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (83-74; 67-83-7 O/U)

MLB: Thursday, September 28, 2017 at 4:10pm EST

Line: Milwaukee -155/Cincinnati +140

Total: 9.5

The Milwaukee Brewers will host the Cincinnati Reds as the NL Central rivals close a three game series Thursday afternoon from Miller Park. The Reds will give the call to 23-year old right-hander Sal Romano, and the Brewers will turn to 28-year old left-hander Brent Suter. The Brewers lead the season series 10-7.

Romano Looks to Avoid Third Loss to Brewers this Season

Sal Romano will make his 16th start of the season, looking to rebound from a rough outing. Romano was hit-hard in his latest start, allowing five runs in four innings to the Red Sox, and was charged with the loss. The rookie right-hander has posted some performances starts this season, and is carrying a 4.43 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP to go with a 5-7 record in 81.1 innings pitched. He has struggled against the Brewers, allowing two runs in three innings in the first meeting, and served up seven runs (six earned) in five innings in the second meeting, and took the loss in both outings.  Ryan Braun is 3 for 4 with three RBI’s against Romano, and Domingo Santana has also driven in three runs against Romano. Scooter Gennett continues to drive in runs at a rapid pace, smashing three homers along with nine RBI’s over his last nine games. The career .283 hitter is having a tremendous season, sporting a .297 average with 27 home runs and 94 RBI’s. Gennett is 11 for 42 with nine RBI’s against the Brewers this season. 

The Reds are currently averaging 4.69 runs per game, ranking them 14th in the Majors, and are hitting .253 as a team. The Cincinnati pitching is carrying a weak 5.21 team ERA, placing them down at 29th in the Major Leagues.

Suter Stifles Cubs in No Decision

Brent Suter will make his 22nd appearance and 14th start of the season, looking to continue his strong pitching. Suter was very sharp in his previous start, limiting the Cubs to only one run in 5.1 innings and finished with the no-decision. The young right-hander is having an outstanding season, sporting a 3.29 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP accompanied with a 3-2 record in 76.2 innings logged. He has conceded five runs in seven innings against the Reds this season and has now allowed five runs in 10.1 career innings against Cincinnati. Travis Shaw is finishing his season off on a strong note, driving in nine runs over his last 10 games. The 27-year old third baseman is having a career-year, posting a .273 average with 31 home runs and 99 RBI’s. Shaw owns a .316 average with 10 RBI’s against the Reds this season. Milwaukee is still alive in the Wildcard race, sitting 1.5 games back of the Rockies heading into Wednesday’s action.

The Brewers are scoring an average of 4.51 runs per game, ranking them 21st overall, and are hitting .249 as a team. The Milwaukee pitching is sporting a 3.99 team ERA, good for eighth in the Major Leagues.

Trends:

The Cincinnati Reds are:

  • under is 6-1 in their last 7 games in the third game of a series.
  • under is 4-0 in Romano’s last 4 starts on five days of rest.
  • under is 5-1 in Romano’s last 6 starts against the NL Central.

The Milwaukee Brewers are:

  • under is 5-1-1 in Suter’s last 7 home starts.
  • under is 4-0 in Suter’s last 4 starts overall.
  • under is 9-2-1 in their last 12 home games.

I am taking the under in this matchup. Suter has been outstanding on the mound, allowing only three runs in his 17.1 innings pitched this month, so I am very confident he can shut down the Reds bats. Furthermore, Romano has also been solid as he owns a terrific 2.95 ERA over his last seven starts. Both clubs have not been scoring many runs as of late, giving me more confidence in the under.

Pick: Under

Adam Rauzino

Adam has been a sports fanatic his entire life, closely following hockey, baseball, basketball and football. Adam enjoys analyzing various stats, as well as studying Sabermetrics and analytics to take his picks to a whole new level. Adam has a passion for writing about about various sports as well as personal finance. He graduated with a diploma in business marketing and business finance.

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