Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#2927 Texas Rangers vs.
#2928 Seattle Mariners
Wednesday, September 28, 2022 at 9:40pm EDT
Written by The Admiral

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Texas Rangers (65-87) vs. Seattle Mariners (83-69)

The Texas Rangers meet the Seattle Mariners for the second of a three-game series at T-Mobile Park in Seattle, so here’s the best Rangers vs. Mariners betting pick for Wednesday night with the first pitch at 9:40 PM ET. 

It’s Game 18 of their 19-game AL West regular-season set. Tuesday’s clash from T-Mobile Park hasn’t been included in the analysis, while the Mariners have won 12 of their first 16 encounters with the Rangers in 2022.

The Rangers are eager to play the spoiler

The Texas Rangers are eliminated from the playoff race, but they have a nice opportunity to ruin the Mariners’ season, so there’s something to play for in this matchup. The Rangers entered Tuesday’s battle against the M’s riding a three-game losing streak and have dropped six of their previous eight contests overall. 

Texas is slashing an underwhelming .234/.289/.408 in the last couple of weeks and 363 at-bats. The Rangers’ bullpen hasn’t impressed either, tallying a 4.50 ERA in its last 44 innings of work. 

Martin Perez will get the nod Wednesday and face the Mariners for the fourth time this season. The 31-year-old southpaw hasn’t been involved in the decision in his previous three dates with Seattle, posting a sturdy 2.12 ERA and a troublesome 1.47 WHIP across 17 innings pitched. 

Perez is 12-6 with a 2.90 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 164/61 K/BB ratio in 30 starts (183.1 innings pitched) in 2022. He’s pitched well through his four showings in September, notching a 2.96 ERA and 2.46 FIP. Last Thursday, Perez tossed six frames of a three-run, five-hit ball in a no-decision against the Los Angeles Angels (Texas eventually won 5-3 at home).

The Mariners are fighting through the injury crisis

The Seattle Mariners held the final wild card in the American League on Tuesday, trailing the Tampa Bay Rays by half a game. The M’s were three games behind the Toronto Blue Jays and three and a half games ahead of the Baltimore Orioles, so they have to finish strong in order to avoid a late upset.

However, Seattle has struggled with injuries of late and misses outfielder Julio Rodriguez, who’s been their best player this season. Both Cal Raleigh and Jesse Winker are listed day-to-day, while Eugenio Suarez returned to the lineup on Tuesday after missing ten days with a finger injury. 

George Kirby will take the mound Wednesday. The 24-year-old right-hander is 7-4 with a solid 3.30 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 124/18 K/BB ratio in 23 starts (120 IP) in his rookie campaign. Kirby will try to bounce back from a rough outing at Oakland this past Thursday, as he was shelled for five earned runs on seven hits across just 2.1 frames of work in a no-decision against the Athletics. The talented rookie is 1-0 with a 2.16 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in three starts (16.2 IP) against the Rangers.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

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In his lone home encounter with the Rangers, George Kirby tossed five scoreless innings and yielded just two hits and a walk. Texas prefers to hit the lefties and holds a 93 OPS+ against the right-handed pitchers in 2022. On the other side, the injury-depleted Mariners will have a difficult job against Martin Perez, and I’m expecting their bullpen to make the difference down the stretch. 

Seattle’s relievers have registered a 3.49 ERA and 2.76 FIP in the last ten days and 28.1 innings of work, surrendering zero home runs in the process. Also, Eugenio Suarez’s return is a huge boost for Seattle’s offense. He’s 2-for-5 with a home run against Perez and holds a 157 OPS+ versus the lefties in 2022.

Prediction: Take the Seattle Mariners ML

Full-Game Total Pick

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The starting duo should fare well in this clash. I’ve mentioned how good Martin Perez and George Kirby have been against these two teams so far. T-Mobile Park is a pitcher-friendly ballpark and ranks 29th in ESPN’s MLB Park Factors, so give me the under on the totals. 

The under is 10-3-1 in Seattle’s previous 14 outings at home. On the other side, eight of the Rangers’ last ten showings on the road have gone under the total. Texas has scored three or fewer runs in five of its last eight visits to T-Mobile Park. It’s hard to expect fireworks given the Rangers’ and Mariners’ recent form at the plate.

Prediction: Go under
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Written By Admir Aljic , "The Admiral"

You want someone to show you how to make some money, then talk to the Admiral, because he is your man. He has been handicapping for many years, so heal knows a thing or two on how to beat the spread and get your pockets loaded with cash. He has lined his own pockets for years as a betting expert. The Admiral has brought his talents to StatSalt & Winners & Whiners and will always find the best pick for you.