Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#2955 Los Angeles Dodgers vs.
#2956 San Diego Padres
Thursday, September 29, 2022 at 9:40pm EDT
Written by Chris King

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It’s a battle of the top two teams in the National League West as they finish up a series on the diamond in southern California looking to pick up a victory. The Los Angeles Dodgers are on the road as they close out a three-game set with the San Diego Padres Thursday night. In the opening game of the series Tuesday night, it was the Padres picking up a 4-3 victory in 10 innings to try and help their playoff hopes. Will the Dodgers earn the victory in the finale of this series or can the Padres earn another victory to take another step toward a postseason berth? This article was published prior to the conclusion of the middle game of the series Wednesday night at Petco Park.

Los Angeles Dodgers Readying for the Postseason

Los Angeles is just cruising toward the playoffs as they have locked down the top record in the National League, giving them home-field advantage for the entirety of the NL playoffs as long as they are in it. The Dodgers own a 20-game lead over the Padres entering Wednesday despite losing four of their last seven games. On Tuesday night, Los Angeles finished with six hits with Trea Turner (two runs) recording three of them while no other player had more than one. Tyler Anderson didn’t factor in the decision as he threw six innings, allowing two runs on three hits with no walks and three strikeouts. Craig Kimbrel (6-7) took the loss in relief as he allowed one run (none earned) on no hits with three walks and one strikeout in one-third of an inning.

The Dodgers are going with an opener for this contest but the bulk innings guy is slated to be Andrew Heaney, who logs his 15th appearance of the season in this contest. He comes in 3-3 with a 3.06 ERA, a 1.082 WHIP, 18 walks and 97 strikeouts over 64.2 innings of action this year. Heaney took the loss in his last start, which came against the Cardinals at home Friday. He threw 3.2 innings, allowing four runs on four hits with two walks and five strikeouts in a game the Dodgers lost 11-0. In his last three starts, Heaney is 1-1 with a 3.55 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, five walks and 19 strikeouts over 12.2 innings of work. Heaney makes his fifth career start against the Padres in this contest. He comes in 2-0 with a 1.13 ERA, a 0.833 WHIP, six walks and 21 strikeouts over 24 innings of work against them. Heaney is 1-0 with a 2.19 ERA, a 0.811 WHIP, three walks and 12 strikeouts over 12.1 innings in two career starts at Petco Park.

San Diego Padres Trying to Lock Down Wild Card Berth

San Diego won their third straight and their eighth in the last 10 games as they took the opening game of this series against the Dodgers Tuesday night. The Padres entered Wednesday second in the NL West, 20 games behind the Dodgers for the top spot. They held the second wild card spot in the National League and had a magic number of four to clinch a playoff spot. On Tuesday, San Diego finished with six hits with no player having more than one in the contest. Wil Myers drove in a pair of runs while Jorge Alfaro drove in the winning run on a bases-loaded walk in the 10th inning. Blake Snell didn’t factor in the decision as he threw five scoreless innings, allowing one hit with three walks and six strikeouts. Pierce Johnson (1-1) threw a scoreless 10th, allowing no hits or walks while striking out one, to earn the victory in relief.

Sean Manaea is expected to get the call for his 29th appearance, 28th start, of the season for the Padres in this contest. He comes in 7-9 with a 5.23 ERA, a 1.358 WHIP, 49 walks and 147 strikeouts over 148 innings of work on the year. Manaea didn’t factor in the decision in his last outing, which came against the Rockies on the road Friday. He threw 3.2 innings, allowing three runs on six hits with three walks and two strikeouts in a game San Diego lost 4-3 in 10 innings. In his last three starts, Manaea is 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA, a 1.692 WHIP, four walks and nine strikeouts over 13 innings of work. Manaea makes his eighth career appearance and seventh start against the Dodgers in this contest. He comes in 0-5 with a 9.88 ERA, a 1.976 WHIP, 10 walks and 28 strikeouts over 27.1 innings of work against them. Manaea is 6-3 with a 3.69 ERA, a 1.245 WHIP, 26 walks and 65 strikeouts over 70.2 innings in 13 career appearances, 12 starts, at Petco Park.

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The Padres are still trying to lock down their playoff spot while the Dodgers are on cruise control as they try to sort out their pitching staff for the postseason. Manaea has had major issues of late and has been lit up by the Dodgers on a regular basis in his career. He didn’t look sharp against Colorado in his previous outing, failing to make it through the fourth inning. Heaney has had his issues in recent starts but has been very good at whiffing opposing hitters this season. The Dodgers still have a deep lineup to work with, which makes them dangerous on a night in, night out basis. It’s hard to trust San Diego given Manaea’s issues. Take the Dodgers on the road on getaway day as their organizational depth carries them to a victory.

Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers ML

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Los Angeles has been an under machine throughout the season as the under is 76-65-13 in their games entering Wednesday. The Dodgers are first in the majors entering Wednesday with 5.29 runs per contest, though that inches up slightly to 5.30 runs per game on the road. Los Angeles has an average total of 8.50 runs per game, a number that slips slightly to 8.25 runs a game on the road. San Diego entered Wednesday having seen the under hit in 78 of their 154 games on the season with four pushes. The Padres put up an average of 4.43 runs per game, which is 12th in the league. They average just 3.81 runs per game at home this season, which is 25th in the majors. San Diego has an average total of 8.54 runs per game on the year, a number that drops to only 7.56 runs per game at home this season. With Manaea sputtering and the Dodgers likely rotating a bunch of arms through, look for this game to end up over the number.

Prediction: Over

Written By Chris King , "Chris King"

Chris King has been immersed in the world of professional and collegiate sports for more than three decades. Whether it's playing pickup games or being involved in organized sports to being a fan, he's checked all the boxes. From the NFL to arena football, the NHL to the KHL, the NBA to the WNBA to college hoops, and even MLB to the KBO.  If it's out there, he's covered it and bet on it as well, as Chris has been an expert bettor in his career.  Before joining Winners and Whiners back in 2015, his work appeared around the internet and in print. He's written books for Ruckus Books about college basketball, the NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, golf, and the World Cup. If you're looking for the inside track on hitting a winner, do yourself a favor and read what Chris has to say.