Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#2953 Miami Marlins vs.
#2954 Milwaukee Brewers
Thursday, September 29, 2022 at 7:40pm EDT
Written by Mason Folz

This article covers a past game!

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This Thursday, the (64-90) Miami Marlins and the (82-72) Milwaukee Brewers will play game one of this four-game series. The first pitch will be thrown out at 7:40 PM EST inside American Family Field. The last time these two teams matched up, the Brewers ended up stealing two of three games.

The Miami Marlins are coming into this one after a tough two-game series against the New York Mets. They did win game one, though. Miami looked great at the dish, as they were able to score six runs. They will need to keep their bats hot in this one if they want to challenge the Brewers on the road.

The Milwaukee Brewers are entering this one after a grueling two-game series with the St. Louis Cardinals. The Brewers struggled at the plate in game one. They only scored two runs, as they will need their bats to heat up if they want to take care of business at home against the Marlins.

Looking for my Best Bet?

My MLB Best Bet came up short yesterday, as the Orioles didn't show up at the plate against the Red Sox. I am now looking to turn the page and put all of my focus into this Thursday night football game between the Dolphins and the Bengals. I have been killing it in these primetime football games, as we called the under in Sunday night's game and the Cowboys to win on Monday. I'm looking to stay hot and I know who is going to win this one. Buy my Best Bet and I will see all of you back in the GREEN! Let's get hot!

Can the Marlins Cause Anarchy?

The Miami Marlins are currently 5-5 in their last 10 games played, as their average play has kept them out of the NL Wild Card race. They are 20.5 games back from the Philadelphia Phillies for the third and final NL Wild Card spot. Miami is also stuck in fourth place in the NL East, as they trail the Braves and the Mets by 32.5 games. The Marlins will most likely miss the playoffs this season.

At the plate, the Marlins are scoring 3.65 runs per game and they are hitting .231 as a team. This is the third least amount of runs scored per game and the 25th highest overall team batting average. They have struggled to consistently make contact with the ball, which has made it much more difficult to score. They have also realized that they don't have a crazy amount of power hidden inside of their lineup. They are only hitting .90 home runs per game, which is the 24th most in the MLB. They have had to string together multiple base hits to create a big inning. Miami has already stolen 117 bases, as well. They are very aggressive once they reach base safely, as this has been the easiest way to move base runners into scoring position.

According to MLB.com, the Marlins will be starting Braxton Garrett on the mound. He is currently 3-6 with a 3.52 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. In his last start, he pitched for 6.0 innings and he only allowed five hits and one earned run. He hasn't been as solid on the road, though. He is currently 2-4 with a 4.40 ERA outside of his home ballpark. The Marlins bullpen I also allowing the 21st most runs per game and Miami is allowing 4.30 runs per game, which is the 12th least in the league.

Can the Brewers Make a Run?

The Milwaukee Brewers are 6-4 in their last 10 games, but they are only 1.5 games back from the Philadelphia Phillies for the third and final NL Wild Card spot. They are so close, as they have to go on a run if they want to slip into the postseason. Milwaukee is also 7.5 games back from the St. Louis Cardinals in the NL Central, as they will not be winning the division this season.

At the plate, the Brewers are scoring 4.60 runs per game and they are hitting .235 as a team. This is the 10th most runs scored per game, but only the 22nd highest overall team batting average. They have struggled to consistently reach base safely, but luckily the Brewers have found multiple different ways to score. They are also hitting 1.41 home runs per game, which is the third most in the league. They have multiple players that can change this game with one swing of the bat. I would watch for Rowdy Tellez at the dish in this one, as he leads the team with 34 home runs this season. I would also expect the Brewers to stay aggressive once they have reached base safely, as well. They have already swiped 89 bases this season, which is the 13th most in the MLB.

According to MLB.com, the Brewers will start Eric Lauer on the mound. He is currently 10-7 with a 3.96 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP. The last time he was on the mound, he pitched for 2.2 innings and he gave up two earned runs, as he will be looking to bounce back in this one. He is also 5-2 at home this season with a 2.98 ERA. The Brewer's bullpen has also been solid this season. They are allowing the 16th most runs per game. As a team, the Brewers are surrendering 4.38 runs per game, which is the 18th most in the MLB.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

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I will be riding with the Brewers (-1.5) in this matchup against the Marlins. The Brewers are currently 1.5 games back from the Philadelphia Phillies for the third and final NL Wild Card spot, as they can't let these games slip away against the Marlins. Milwaukee will also start Eric Lauer on the mound, as he is 5-2 at home this season. Lauer will be able to come into this one and pitch deep into this game, as he will be looking to bounce back in this one. He has a great matchup, as the Marlins are scoring the third least amount of runs per game and they have the 25th highest overall team batting average. Miami will fail to consistently reach base safely and they won't score enough runs to keep this game within the spread. The Brewers are the better overall team and they have way more to play for. I don't trust Braxton Garrett on the mound either. He is 2-4 on the road this season and his ERA jumps up to 4.40. Milwaukee is scoring the 10th most runs per game, as I see them finding multiple different ways to score throughout this one. Garrett will leave the ball over the middle of the plate and the Brewers will make him pay.

Hammer the Milwaukee Brewers and lay the run line spread (-1.5).

Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers -1.5

Full-Game Total Pick

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I will be taking the over (8) runs in this matchup between the Marlins and the Brewers. I don't see Miami scoring many runs in this game, but I still expect them to score enough to push this total over the number. They scored six runs against the Mets on Tuesday, as they have shown that they are still trying near the end of the season. The Brewers will do the majority of the scoring in this game, as I see them exploding at the plate. The Marlins are starting Garrett on the mound and he has struggled on the road this season. He has a 4.40 ERA and the Brewers will be looking to score in this one. They need this game if they want to make a run at the postseason, as they will show off their power. They are hitting the third most home runs per game and the Miami bullpen has also struggled this season. The Brewers will consistently score throughout this game and do their part in pushing this total over (8) runs. If your book doesn't have the total set at this number, then I would recommend buying it. The Brewers will do the majority of the scoring in this game and the Marlins will also put a few insurance runs up on the board.

Take the over (8) runs and trust the Brewers' bats in this one.

Prediction: Over 8
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Written By Mason Folz , "Mason Folz"

Mason graduated from the University of Colorado, Boulder and he has been watching SportsCenter since before he could walk. He has been crunching numbers since he could learn to count and nothing makes Mason happier in this world than talking sports, unless he is on the golf course! We are very happy to have added Mason to our team at StatSalt and you will be glad as well. Let's win some money!