Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#2969 Texas Rangers vs.
#2970 Seattle Mariners
Thursday, September 29, 2022 at 9:40pm EDT
Written by The Admiral

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Texas Rangers (66-87) vs. Seattle Mariners (83-70)

Thursday’s MLB betting action brings the AL West showdown from T-Mobile Park in Seattle with the first pitch at 9:40 PM ET. The Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners wrap up their 19-game regular-season set with a three-game series finale, so let’s take a closer look. 

The Rangers have won just five of their first 17 contests against the Mariners including a 5-0 victory in the opening clash of this set. Wednesday’s middle game has been excluded from the analysis, while the Mariners open as slim -118 money line favorites for Thursday’s battle.

The Rangers blanked the M’s on a bullpen day

The Texas Rangers kept the Mariners scoreless last Tuesday despite opting for a bullpen day. Six guys combined for seven strikeouts and yielded just five hits and five walks, while third baseman Josh Jung went 3-for-4 with a couple of homers and five RBI. 

The Rangers have struggled at the plate for most of September, racking up a .229/.291/.383 slash line with 28 home runs and 38 extra-base hits across 804 at-bats. On the pitching side of things, they’ve amassed a troublesome 4.78 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, and .263 opposing batting average through 209 innings of work this month. 

Jon Gray will toe the rubber Thursday at T-Mobile Park. The 30-year-old righty is 7-7 with a solid 3.64 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and 126/36 K/BB ratio in 22 starts (116.1 innings pitched) in 2022. He hasn’t emerged victorious since July 21, posting a 0-3 record with a 4.35 ERA and 3.80 FIP in his last five starts. 

After spending six weeks on the IL, Gray rejoined the Rangers’ rotation on September 12. Last Friday, he pitched very well in a no-decision against the Cleveland Guardians, allowing one unearned run on a hit and a walk across five frames of work.

The Mariners hope to clinch the playoff berth as soon as possible

The Seattle Mariners recorded their third straight loss to the Rangers last Tuesday. Robbie Ray fanned eight across 5.2 innings and yielded a pair of runs on six hits, but the Mariners’ offense struggled mightily and their bullpen didn’t help a lot. 

It was Seattle’s eighth defeat in 11 games. The Mariners still held the bottom wild card in the American League, three and a half games ahead of the Baltimore Orioles, who lost 13-9 at the Boston Red Sox on Tuesday. Seattle owns a decent .731 OPS in its last 390 at-bats despite missing Julio Rodriguez, but the Mariners’ pitching staff hasn’t impressed in the last couple of weeks, posting a 4.90 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. 

Marco Gonzales will toe the slab Thursday, and the 30-year-old left-hander is 1-2 with a 5.16 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in three starts against the Rangers this season. He’s yielded five earned runs in two of those three contests. 

Gonzales will try to snap his two-game skid. After surrendering five runs in a 5-1 defeat at the Los Angeles Angels, Marco gave up four runs (three earned) in a 5-1 loss at the Kansas City Royals this past Friday. Gonzales is now 10-15 with a 4.05 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and 94/47 K/BB ratio in 30 starts (171 IP) in 2022. 

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

Insiders Status:


Jon Gray is enjoying a nice season, but he’s 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA in a couple of dates with Seattle in 2022. The current Mariners lineup is 19-for-83 with four home runs and 13 RBI against Gray. On the other side, the current Rangers are 47-for-180 with 14 doubles, five no-doubters, and 28 RBI versus Marco Gonzales, so the starting duo will have a difficult job in this matchup. 

In the last ten days of action, the Rangers’ bullpen has recorded a 4.19 ERA and 3.50 FIP in 34.1 innings of work, while the Mariners’ bullpen has registered a 4.25 ERA and 3.32 FIP through 29.2 frames pitched. It’s hard to separate these two teams at the moment, and I’m backing the Mariners only because they have a huge motive to come out on top. Seattle hasn’t appeared in the postseason since 2001 which is the longest active drought in baseball.

Prediction: Seattle Mariners (-118)

Full-Game Total Pick

Insiders Status:


I’m looking for both teams to hit well, so give me the over on the totals. They have a strong record against Marco Gonzales and Jon Gray, while the Rangers are way more dangerous when hitting the lefties (110 OPS+ in 2022, 93 OPS+ against the righties). 

The Mariners failed to score in Tuesday’s opener, and that won’t happen again. Eight of the previous 12 encounters between the M’s and Rangers have produced more than seven runs in total, and Seattle has accounted for four or more runs eight times in that stretch. 

Prediction: Go over 7.0 runs (-115)

Written By Admir Aljic , "The Admiral"

You want someone to show you how to make some money, then talk to the Admiral, because he is your man. He has been handicapping for many years, so heal knows a thing or two on how to beat the spread and get your pockets loaded with cash. He has lined his own pockets for years as a betting expert. The Admiral has brought his talents to StatSalt & Winners & Whiners and will always find the best pick for you.