Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox
When and Where: Tuesday, Sept. 4, Guaranteed Rate Field, Chicago, Ill., 8:10 p.m. EDT.
Having overtaken the Detroit Tigers for third in the American League Central, the Chicago White Sox look to further their solid play of late as they continue their three-game series Tuesday night.
Liriano again tries for first win since late April
This could be Francisco Liriano‘s last start on the season as the Tigers are calling up younger pitchers to get a look at what they have ahead of the 2019 season. Liriano (3-9, 4.96 ERA), who is a free agent at season’s end, did not sound thrilled about the impending move as he was hoping to use September to raise his profile to potential suitors.
“It will help me decide what I’m going to do next year,” he told the Detroit News regarding whether he stays in the rotation. “It will help if I can finish strong and find a way to go deeper into these games. I want to just keep working until the end. I’ve been through worse before and I got out of it.”
Liriano has gone 16 starts since his last victory April 28, compiling an 0-8 record and 5.71 ERA in that lengthy stretch. He avoided losing a fifth consecutive start Thursday after getting reached for five runs and 10 hits over 4 1-3 innings against the New York Yankees in Detroit’s eventual 8-7 victory.
Most of Liriano’s starts during his winless drought have been on the road, where he is 0-5 with a 4.98 ERA in 12 outings. He has allowed three or more runs in eight of them, which is a problem since the Tigers have backed him with more than three runs just once in those starts.
The left-hander’s lone start versus Chicago was one to forget as he was tagged for three homers while giving up five runs and six hits in five-plus innings of an 8-4 defeat May 26. That dropped him to 6-5 with a 5.05 ERA in 13 career starts against the White Sox, though it was also his first one since 2015.
White Sox catcher Wellington Castillo, who made his return Monday and went 1 for 4 after serving an 80-game suspension for violating the league’s PED policy and a stint on the disabled list, is 7 for 22 with a pair of homers versus Liriano.
Giolito looks to continue breakout season for ChiSox
Lucas Giolito (10-9, 5.66 ERA), who leads the White Sox in wins, has lowered his earned run average more than one-half run in his last four starts as he also attempts to record his fourth consecutive victory in this game.
The right-hander had nothing to show for a solid outing Thursday against Boston after limiting the Red Sox to one run and two hits over 6 1-3 innings before the White Sox absorbed a 9-4 loss. Giolito has yielded three or fewer runs in each of his last four starts, his longest such run of the season.
The third-year pitcher has yet to find a comfort level on the South Side of Chicago as he enters this contest 3-5 with a 7.52 ERA in 13 home starts on the season. Thursday’s start marked only the fourth time he held a team to three or fewer runs at home.
Giolito is 2-1 with a 5.25 ERA in four starts against the Tigers this year, winning the last two while pitching in Detroit. He allowed a solo homer and two other hits over seven innings in a 6-1 victory at Comerica Park in the most recent matchup Aug. 25.
The White Sox are:
- 6-0 in Giolito’s last six starts vs. sub-.500 teams.
- 4-1 in their last five games vs. starters with a WHIP above 1.30.
- 4-0 in Giolito’s last four starts vs. AL Central teams.
- The over is 10-4-1 in their last 15 games vs. AL Central teams.
- The over is 3-1-1 in Giolito’s last five starts.
- The over is 4-0 in Giolito’s last four starts.
The Tigers are:
- 1-7 in their last eight games vs. starters with a WHIP above 1.30.
- 0-6 in their last six games vs. AL Central teams.
- 1-6 in Liriano’s last seven starts vs. sub-.500 teams.
- The over is 8-3-1 in their last 12 games.
- The over is 7-3-1 in their last 11 road games.
- The over is 9-3-2 in their last 14 games vs. AL Central teams.
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
Giolito appears to have found something based on his recent improvement and effectiveness, and the White Sox also have been playing better baseball over the past three weeks, winning 14 of their last 20 games after Monday’s 4-2 victory. Liriano’s struggles appear to be too much for the Tigers to overcome in this contest.
Prediction: Pick: White Sox -162
Full-Game Total Pick
Even with Giolito’s improved pitching of late, the chance to jump on this game at single digits is simply too good to pass up, more so with the line having moved down one full run since its open at 9.5 runs. Both pitchers still have astronomical WHIPs, with Giolito entering this contest at 1.41 and Liriano at 1.54. There will be plenty of opportunities to score in this game and both teams likely will do enough to hit the over easily.
Prediction: Pick: OVER 8.5 runs
Full-Game Prop Bet
The RHE total has been 27 or higher in four of Giolito’s last six starts and 31 or higher in Liriano’s last three. The total has also been 31 or better in four of Liriano’s last six road starts, making the over a strong play.
Prediction: Pick: OVER 27 Runs+Hits+Errors (-125)
First Five Innings Side Pick
Giolito has been ahead or tied in five of his last six starts after five innings, and the White Sox have led after five in nine of their last 12 overall. Chicago also was on top at the halfway point in three of the four games at Detroit in its most recent series.
Prediction: Pick: White Sox -170
First Five Innings Total Bet
The over is a better play at 4.5 runs in large part because Liriano has not had a lights-out start since mid-May and has not lasted more than 5 1-3 innings while giving up at least three runs in each of his last four outings. Again, both pitchers allow opponents to get on base, so the scoring opportunities will be there.
Prediction: Pick: OVER 4.5 runs (-130)
First Five Innings Prop Prediction
This pick is worth a flyer because both pitchers have an inflated first-inning ERA — Giolito checks in at 7.67 while Liriano’s is not much better at 6.43. Additionally, the White Sox have scored in the opening frame in four of their last five games.
Prediction: Pick: YES to 1st-inning run (-110)