Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#969 Chicago White Sox vs.
#970 Seattle Mariners
Monday, September 5, 2022 at 6:40pm EDT
Written by Mason Folz

This article covers a past game!

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This Monday, the (67-66) Chicago White Sox and the (75-58) Seattle Mariners will play game one of this three-game series. The first pitch will be thrown out at 6:40 PM EST inside T-Mobile Park. The last time these two teams matched up the White Sox won two of three games, as they had it working on the mound.

The White Sox are coming into this one after winning their previous series against the Minnesota Twins. Chicago won the first two games, as they were seeing the ball great at the plate. They scored 17 combined runs in those two games, as they will need to stay hot at the plate in this one.

The Seattle Mariners are entering this one after a tough series with the Cleveland Guardians. Seattle also won the first two games, as they looked great at the plate and on the mound. They scored 10 combined runs and only allowed one in the first two games of that series.

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The White Sox Need Wins

The Chicago White Sox are currently 5-5 in their last 10 games, but they have won four in a row. Unfortunately, they are still 6.0 games back from the Toronto Blue Jays for the third and final AL Wild Card spot. Chicago is also only 2.0 games back from the Cleveland Guardians for first place in the AL Central. They can still win their division.

At the plate, the White Sox are scoring 4.31 runs per game and they are hitting .261 as a team. This is the 19th most runs per game, but the highest overall team batting average. They have shown that they can consistently reach base, but they haven't been able to show up when they have men in scoring position. The White Sox have also realized that they have very little power littered throughout their lineup. They are being forced to string together multiple base hits to score, as their power just hasn't been there. They are currently hitting .89 home runs per game, which is the 26th lowest average in the MLB. I also expect the White Sox to say conservative once they have reached base safely. They have only stolen 41 bases this season, which is the 26th most in the league.

According to MLB.com, the White Sox will be starting Lance Lynn on the mound. He is currently 4-5 with a 4.70 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP. In his last start, he pitched for 7.0 innings and only gave up one earned run against the Royals. He did lose back-to-back starts before that game, though. Lynn has also been bad on the road this season, as he is 0-3 with a 5.59 ERA outside of their home ballpark. The White Sox bullpen has the 19th lowest bullpen ERA, as well. As a team, the White Sox are allowing the 18th most runs per game.

The Mariners are Hot!

The Seattle Mariners are currently 8-2 in their last 10 and they have won six games in a row. Their strong play has launched them into second place in the AL West and they are now holding the second AL Wild Card spot. They have a 2.0-game lead over the Toronto Blue Jays, as they can't risk losing many more games if they want to remain in the Wild Card hunt.

At the plate, the Mariners are scoring 4.22 runs per game and they are hitting .231 as a team. This is the 21st most runs scored per game and they have the 25th lowest overall team batting average. They have struggled to consistently reach base, but their power has come up big for them this season. They are averaging 1.18 bombs per game. This is the 11th highest average in the MLB, as they have multiple guys that can change the game with one swing of the bat. This has been the easiest way for them to score runs, as they have also struggled with men in scoring position. Expect the Mariners to stay aggressive once they have reached base safely, as well. They have already stolen 68 bases this season, which is the 15th most in the league.

According to MLB.com, the Mariners will be starting Marco Gonzales on the mound. He is currently 10-12 with a 3.99 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP. In his last start, he pitched for 6.0 innings and he only allowed three earned runs to the Tigers. Gonzales has been better at home, though. Inside T-Mobile Park, he is 6-5 with a 3.46 ERA. The Seattle bullpen has also been great this season, as they have the seventh lowest bullpen ERA in the league. They are allowing 3.31 runs per game. As a team, the Mariners are allowing 3.74 runs per game, which is the fourth lowest average in the league.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

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The Seattle Mariners have now won six games in a row, as they are feeling it at the plate and on the mound. I also see the White Sox having a very difficult time scoring against Marco Gonzales. He has been solid at home this season and he looked great in his last start. The White Sox have also struggled to drive in men all season, as I see them having issues in this one again. The White Sox are scoring the 19th most runs per game and they are hitting the 26th most home runs. They have very little power inside of their batting lineup and they won't score enough runs to challenge the red-hot Seattle Mariners. Seattle is scoring 4.55 runs per game in their last 10 and I see them continuing to see the ball well against Lynn. I've bet against Lance Lynn all season, as he has continued to struggle. He is currently 4-5 with a 4.70 ERA, as he has shown that he can blow up in these games. He has also been horrible on the road this season, as he is 0-3. I don't have a ton of faith in the White Sox bullpen either, as they have the 19th lowest bullpen ERA. The Mariners will consistently score throughout this game and the White Sox won't be able to keep up. Seattle is allowing the fourth least amount of runs as a team, as the White Sox will continue to struggle to drive in men when they are in scoring position.

Seattle is smoking hot right now. Take them money line.

Prediction: Seattle Mariners -120

Full-Game Total Pick

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I will be taking over 7 runs in this matchup, as this is my favorite play for this game. Lance Lynn has struggled all season and I see him getting hit early and often against the Mariners in this one. Seattle looked great at the plate in their last series against the Guardians and they will keep it rolling in this one. Seattle is scoring 4.55 runs per game over the last 10 and I love their matchup in this one. Lynn is 0-3 on the road this season and he has a 5.59 ERA. He continues to get lit up away from his home ballpark, as I don't see him shutting down the Mariners in this one. Seattle can score multiple different ways and I expect them to hit a few bombs in this one. They are hitting the 11th most home runs per game this season, as they have multiple guys that can change this game with one swing. Now, I also see the White Sox helping push this total over 7, as they will be facing Marco Gonzales in this one. He has been better at home, but the White Sox still have the highest overall team batting average in the MLB. They will consistently reach base and they will also drive in a few extra insurance runs. I don't see the White Sox scoring enough runs to win this game, but they will do their part in pushing this total over the number. Both of these starting pitchers have shown that they will give up runs and each team's batting lineup will take advantage.

Take the over 7 runs and trust that each starting pitcher will struggle at different points in this game.

Prediction: Over 7
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Written By Mason Folz , "Mason Folz"

Mason graduated from the University of Colorado, Boulder and he has been watching SportsCenter since before he could walk. He has been crunching numbers since he could learn to count and nothing makes Mason happier in this world than talking sports, unless he is on the golf course! We are very happy to have added Mason to our team at StatSalt and you will be glad as well. Let's win some money!