Miami Marlins (67-71; 69-61-8 O/U) vs. Atlanta Braves (60-76; 70-62-4 O/U)
MLB: Thursday, September 7, 2017 at 7:35pm
Total: Miami -115/Atlanta +105
The Miami Marlins and the Atlanta Braves will kick off a four game divisional series Thursday night from SunTrust Park. The Marlins will give the nod to 28-year old right-hander Dan Straily, and the Braves will turn to 24-year old left-hander Sean Newcomb. The Braves own a 7-4 lead in the season series.
Straily Strives for Third Win Over Braves this Season
Dan Straily will get the nod for the 29th time of the season, aiming for win number ten. Straily didn’t have his best stuff in his previous start, allowing four runs including two homers in five innings to the Phillies, and was still able to collect the win. The veteran right-hander is having a strong season, posting a 3.91 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in 156.2 innings of work. The Braves have not been able to generate many runs against him as he has only conceded five runs (four earned) in 17 innings this season, and he now sits at 2-2 with a 4.22 ERA in four career starts. Matt Adams is 1 for 7 against Straily, while Freddie Freeman is 3 for 8, and Nick Markakis is 3. for 12 with four RBI’s. Marcell Ozuna is off to a good start to September, driving in four runs in five games. The 26-year old slugger is having a monster season, now hitting .308 with 32 home runs and 107 RBI’s. Ozuna has recorded four home runs along with 11 RBI’s against the Braves this season.
The Marlins are scoring an average of 4.62 runs per game, ranking them 17th overall, and are hitting .263 as a team. The Miami pitching possesses a 4.61 team ERA, placing them 19th in the Major Leagues.
Newcomb K’s Seven in Loss to Cubs
Sean Newcomb will take the mound for the 16th time of the season, looking to get back into the win column. Newcomb allowed three runs (two earned) in five innings to the Cubs last time out and was charged with the loss to drop his record to 2-8. The rookie right-hander has shown strong potential in his first taste of the Majors, posting a 4.31 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP in 79.1 innings of work. He made his lone career start against Miami in June and conceded three runs in six innings and took the loss. Newcomb’s control has been getting him into trouble, walking a total of 47 batters this season. Nick Markakis has enjoyed success against the Marlins pitching this season, notching a hit in 14 of 42 at bats with 10 RBI’s. The career .288 hitter is having a solid season, currently hitting .284 with eight home runs and 68 RBI’s. Markakis has driven in three runs over his last seven games.
The Braves are scoring an average of 4.57 runs per game, ranking them 19th in the Majors, and are hitting .264 as a team. The Atlanta pitching is carrying a 4.78 team ERA, placing them down at 24th in the Major Leagues.
The Miami Marlins are:
- 4-1 in Straily’s last 5 starts in the first game of a series.
- 4-1 in their last 5 games against a team with a losing record.
- 8-3 in Straily’s last 11 starts against the NL East.
The Atlanta Braves are:
- 2-9 in Newcomb’s last 11 starts.
- 1-5 in Newcomb’s last 6 home starts.
- 2-10 in their last 12 home games against a team with a losing road record.
I am siding with the Marlins in this matchup. Straily has silenced the Braves this season, limiting them to only five runs (four earned) in three starts, and he has been very consistent, conceding three or fewer runs in six out of his last seven starts. Furthermore, Newcomb owns a rough 1-6 record with a 4.75 ERA at home this season, and he continues to have issues with his control, so Miami should be able to plate enough runs to get the win.