Philadelphia Phillies (53-85 SU, 73-65 RL, 63-65-10 O/U) vs Washington Nationals (84-54 SU, 69-69 RL, 62-68-8 O/U)
When: 7:05 PM EDT, Thursday, September 7, 2017
Where: Nationals Park in Washington D.C.
Lines: Washington -165/ Philadelphia +155
Major League Baseball action on Thursday night and the Philadelphia Phillies will square off with the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park in Washington D.C. in game one of their four-game series. Pitching Probables: Aaron Nola (10-10, 3.72 ERA) will get the nod for the Phillies in this one and the Nationals will counter with Tanner Roark (11-9, 4.48 ERA).
Offense Explodes In New York
The Phillies have been a very bad offensive team for the last few year, but they have been showing promise of late that gives their fans hope for the future. This offense had been really bad all year, but then the call-up of Rhys Hoskins happened and the offense has really taken off as they have averaged 4.77 rpg in his 26 games played so far, including 5.82 rpg in his last 17 games. The Phillies just took on the Mets and while they split the first two games of that series, they scored 16 runs in those two games. On Tuesday night they faced Jacob deGrom, who has been the Mets’ best starter by far this year, and the Phillies tagged him for nine runs (six earned) on 10 hits in just 3.2 innings of work. Very impressive. Hoskins was two-for-three in the game and is now hitting .319 on the year with 12 homers and 27 RBIs. Ben Lively allowed just on ER on four hits in 7.0 innings of work to get the win and is now 3-5 with a 3.92 ERA on the year. Philly is 25-48 on the road. Taking the hill for the Phillies in this one will be Aaron Nola and he has gone 10-10 with a 3.72 ERA in 23 starts on the year, including 1-1 with a 6.87 ERA in his last three starts and 3-6 with a 4.30 ERA in 12 starts on the road. Nola has gone 1-2 with a 5.18 ERA in six starts in Sept/ Oct in his career and he is 1-3 with a 4.85 ERA in eight starts against the Nationals, including 0-1 with a 2.18 ERA in four starts here at Nationals Park.
The Phillies have been a bad offensive team so far as they come in ranked 28th in the league in scoring, putting up 4.14 rpg, while also ranking 20th in hitting at .250 and 27th in homers with 144. On the mound, they have been poor as they come in ranked 23rd in the league in ERA at 4.71, while also ranking 24th in WHIP at 1.41.
Strasburg Has Been Dominant Of Late
The Washington Nationals started the year going just 5-6 in their first 11 games against the Marlins, but since then it has been all Washington as they have won their last seven games against the Fish, after topping them 2-1 on Tuesday evening. Washington has outscored them 45-12 in the seven games. On Tuesday night, the Nationals got a very solid start from Stephen Strasburg, who allowed no ERs and six hits in 6.0 innings of work. He has really been strong in his four starts since coming off the DL and is now 2-1 with a 0.67 ERA in those starts and he hasn’t allowed an ER in his last three starts now. Having him pitch well in the postseason is a must for their chances of making it to the World Series. Strasburg is now 12-4 with a 2.78 ERA on the year. The Nationals have gone 40-27 here at home and they have averaged 5.42 rpg and have allowed 4.12 rpg in those games. Getting the nod for the Nationals will be Tanner Roark and he has gone 11-9 with a 4.48 ERA in 27 games (26 starts) on the year, including 2-1 with a 2.89 ERA in his last three starts and 4-6 with a 5.07 ERA in 14 games (13 starts) here at home. Roark has gone 8-9 with a 2.63 ERA in 22 career starts in Sept/ Oct and he is 25-19 with a 3.32 ERA in 71 games (51 starts) here at Nationals Park, while against the Phillies he has gone 5-5 with a 3.47 ERA in 15 games (13 starts).
Washington has been a very good offensive team this year so far as they come in ranked 2nd in the league in scoring, putting up 5.20 rpg, while also ranking 3rd in hitting at .268 and 13th in homers with 189. On the mound, they have been solid so far this year as they come in ranked 6th in the league in ERA at 3.82, while also ranking 4th in WHIP at 1.24.
- 11-23 in their last 34 during game one of a series
- 4-12 in Nola’s last 16 starts with four days of rest
- 70-34 in their last 104 vs. the National League East
- 9-2 in their last 11 during game one of a series
The Nationals are well on their way to the playoffs, while the Phillies are just thinking about next year. The Phillies will send out Aaron Nola in this game and he has really struggled of late with a 7.32 ERA in his last four starts and will be taking on a Washington team that can do a lot of damage against him. He is 0-1 with a 2.18 ERA in this park in his career, but I feel the Nats will get to him in this one. Washington will counter with Tanner Roark and he has pitched very well of late as he is 3-2 with a 3.08 ERA in his last six starts. The Nationals are 7-2 their last nine home games in this series and I look for that to continue in this one.
Pick: Washington -165
Aaron Nola has a 2.18 ERA in this park in his career, while Tanner Roark has a solid 3.08 ERA in his last six starts and a 3.47 ERA in his career against the Phillies. Looks like a low scoring game, right? Not so fast. The Phillies offense has been very hot of late as they have averaged 5.82 rpg in their last 17 games and I look for them to have a good offensive showing in this one, while the Nats’ 2nd ranked offense should be able to tee off on Aaron Nola, who has a 7.32 ERA in his last four starts, with those last four starts averaging 13.75 rpg. Roark has a 5.07 ERA at home and his home starts have averaged 9.21 rpg. I will look for a high-scoring Washington win in this one, especially since the Over is 20-7-1 in Nola’s last 28 starts with four days of rest and 27-11-3 in Washington’s last 41 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.