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Reds vs. Mets,
9-7-2017 - Pick and Prediction

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#905 Cincinnati
Reds
#906 New York
Mets

Thursday, September 7, 2017 at 7:10pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

Cincinnati Reds

-

W's
L's
0
ERA
0
WHIP

New York Mets

-

W's
L's
0
ERA
0
WHIP

Betting Trends

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Cincinnati Reds (60-79; 75-59-5 O/U) vs. New York Mets (59-79; 78-49-11 O/U)

MLB: Thursday, September 7, 2017 at 7:10pm EST

Line: Cincinnati -115/New York +105

Total: 9

The New York Mets will host the Cincinnati Reds as the clubs open a four game series Thursday night from Citi Field. The Reds will give the start to 22-year old right-hander Tyler Mahle, and 28-year old right-hander Matt Harvey will take the mound for the Mets. The Reds took two of three against the Mets last week.

Mahle Shines in Second Career Start

Tyler Mahle will make his third career start, hunting for his first career victory. Mahle was outstanding in his previous start, hurling six scoreless innings against the Pirates, but received no run support and finished with the no decision. The rookie right-hander also faced the Pirates in his Major League debut and conceded three runs in five innings. Mahle was terrific in the Minors this season, posting a 2.06 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP in 144.1 innings of work. Scooter Gennett continues to drive in runs with regularity, collecting another nine RBI’s over his last nine games. The career .282 hitter is having a career-year, sporting a .299 average with 24 home runs and 85 RBI’s. Gennett has a strong season against the Mets last week, driving in four runs in three games.

The Reds are scoring an average of 4.78 runs per game, ranking them 23rd overall, and are hitting .255 as a team. The Cincinnati pitching continues to struggle, posting a Major League worst 5.24 team ERA.

Harvey Rocked by Astros in Return to Action

Matt Harvey will take the mound for the 15th time of the season, looking to rebound from a terrible outing. Harvey made his return from a long absence five days ago and served up seven runs on eight hits in 2.2 innings to the Astros, and was charged with the loss. The young right-hander was having a rough season before his injury and owns a poor 5.97 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP to go with a 4-4 record in 72.1 innings of work. He has yet to face the Reds this season and features a stifling 2.48 ERA and a 3-0 record in five career starts against Cincinnati. Zack Cozart is 6 for 11 against Harvey, while Joey Votto is 5 for 12 with two RBI’s, and Adam Duvall is 0 for 6. Asdrubal Cabrera is one of the Mets hottest hitters, belting three home runs along with ten RBI’s over his last 10 games. The career .268 hitter is having an inconsistent season and is now hitting .259 with 12 home runs and 46 RBI’s. Cabrera has collected four hits in 11 at bats with three RBI’s against the Reds this season.

The Mets are currently averaging 4.59 runs per game, ranking them 18th in the Majors, and own a .248 team batting average. The New York pitching is having a rough season, posting a 4.92 team ERA, positioning them 28th in the Major Leagues.

Trends:

The Cincinnati Reds are:

  • 4-0 in their last 4 games in the first game of a series.
  • 4-0 in their last 4 Thursday games.

The New York Mets are:

  • 3-9 in Harvey’s last 12 starts.
  • 1-5 in their last 6 games against a right-handed starter.
  • 4-13 in their last 17 home games.

I am siding with the Reds in this matchup. Harvey surrendered seven runs in his return to action five days ago and overall he is having a terrible season. He owns an abysmal 6.47 ERA at home this season, so I am staying away from him. In addition, Mahle has looked good in his first two career starts, he just tossed six shutout innings against the Pirates and allowed only three runs in his debut, plus the Mets have a very thin lineup right now due to trades and injuries.

Pick: Cincinnati Reds -115

Adam Rauzino

Adam has been a sports fanatic his entire life, closely following hockey, baseball, basketball and football. Adam enjoys analyzing various stats, as well as studying Sabermetrics and analytics to take his picks to a whole new level. Adam has a passion for writing about about various sports as well as personal finance. He graduated with a diploma in business marketing and business finance.

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