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Rockies vs. Dodgers,
9-7-2017 - Expert Prediction

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#911 Colorado
Rockies
#912 Los Angeles
Dodgers

Thursday, September 7, 2017 at 10:10pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

Colorado Rockies

-

W's
L's
0
ERA
0
WHIP

Los Angeles Dodgers

-

W's
L's
0
ERA
0
WHIP

Betting Trends

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Colorado Rockies (74-64 SU, 69-69 RL, 55-77-6 O/U) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (92-46 SU, 72-66 RL, 66-68-4 O/U)

MLB: Thursday, September 7, 2017, Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, California, 10:10 pm ET

Lines: Los Angeles -290, Colorado +255; Over/Under: 6.5

A pair of NL West rivals trying to snap out of a slump meet up in the City of Angels. The Colorado Rockies are on the road to play the first of four against the Los Angeles Dodgers Thursday night. Colorado finished up a three game series at home against San Francisco Wednesday looking for a sweep after winning 9-6 Tuesday. Los Angeles looked to avoid a sweep at home against the Diamondbacks after falling 3-1 in 10 innings in Tuesday’s middle game of the set. The Dodgers swept the last series between the teams, which came here June 23-25.

Colorado Rockies Fighting to Hold Wild Card Position

Don’t let the last two games fool you: Colorado has been in freefall. The Rockies entered Wednesday night with a three game lead for the second wild card spot but they have gone just 14-18 since August 1. Nolan Arenado (two runs, RBI) led the Rockies with three hits while DJ LeMahieu (two runs, RBI), Mark Reynolds (run, RBI) and Jonathan Lucroy (RBI) each had two hits. Tyler Chatwood recorded a no-decision after throwing three scoreless frames: he allowed four hits with three walks and three strikeouts but only 28 of 61 pitches were strikes. Chris Rusin (4-0) picked up the win after allowing a run on three hits with no walks and four strikeouts in 1.2 innings. Greg Holland pitched the ninth for his 37th save of the year.

Jon Gray is on track to make his 16th start of the year for the Rockies. He missed two and a half months earlier in the season with a stress fracture in his left foot. He is 6-4 with a 4.26 ERA, a 1.432 WHIP, 26 walks and 79 strikeouts over 80.1 innings of work. Gray took the loss in his last outing, which came at home against the Diamondbacks Saturday night.  He threw five innings, allowing three runs on five hits with three walks and six strikeouts in a 6-2 Colorado loss. Gray is 1-2 with a 2.55 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, six walks and 19 strikeouts over 17.2 innings in his last three starts. He is 2-3 with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.389 WHIP over 36 innings in seven career starts against the Dodgers. Gray is 0-3 with a 5.52 ERA and a 1.568 WHIP over 14.2 innings in his three starts at Dodger Stadium in his career.

Los Angeles Dodgers Look to Stop the Bleeding

Los Angeles, who has had the best record in baseball for much of the season, is ice cold right now. Their loss Tuesday marked their fifth straight and 10th in the last 11 games. After being shut down in the opener, Los Angeles mustered only six hits in Tuesday’s defeat with no player recording more than one. Yasmani Grandal accounted for the lone Dodgers’ run with his 19th homer of the season. Hyun-Jin Ryu recorded a no-decision despite a quality start: he allowed one run on three hits with five walks and seven strikeouts over six innings. Pedro Baez (3-4) took the loss in relief after allowing two runs (none earned) on no hits with two walks in one-third of an inning.

Clayton Kershaw gets the call for the Dodgers as he makes his 23rd start of the season. He is 16-2 with a 1.95 ERA, a 0.862 WHIP, 24 walks and 175 strikeouts over 147.1 innings of action. Kershaw picked up the victory in his last start, which came Friday on the road against the Padres. In his first start since July 23, he threw six scoreless innings, allowing two hits with no walks and seven strikeouts in a 1-0 Los Angeles win. Kershaw is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA, a 0.73 WHIP, two walks and 16 strikeouts over 15 innings in his last three starts. He makes his 37th career start against the Rockies here: he is 21-6 with a 3.05 ERA and a 1.113 WHIP over 227.1 innings of work. Kershaw is 79-30 with a 2.02 ERA and a 0.946 WHIP over 1,016.1 innings in 149 career starts at Dodger Stadium.

Trends:

Colorado

  • Rockies are 1-5 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15
  • Rockies are 1-5 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600
  • Rockies are 1-7 in their last 8 vs. a team with a winning record

Los Angeles

  • Dodgers are 44-8 in Kershaw’s last 52 starts
  • Dodgers are 43-8 in Kershaw’s last 51 starts on grass
  • Dodgers are 45-9 in Kershaw’s last 54 home starts

The Dodgers are reeling but they have their ace on the mound. Kershaw picked up where he left off in his last start. It’s important to note that he has the only Dodger win in the last 11 games. Colorado won two straight over the Giants but they still are struggling over the last couple months. Their lead on the second wild card has dissipated and they need to get something going. Unfortunately, this isn’t the way to get something started: look for the Dodgers to pick up the win here.

Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers -290

Both teams could really use a win to jumpstart their stretch run. The Rockies need one more than Los Angeles as the Dodgers still own baseball’s best record and are pretty much a shoo-in for the postseason. Colorado has fallen well off the pace for the first wild card spot and now is fighting just to ensure they return to the postseason at all. Kershaw was solid in his return from the disabled list after missing close to six weeks. He is the lone Dodgers pitcher with a win in the last 11 games: sooner or later the bats have to wake back up as well.

The under is 6-1-2 in the Rockies’ last 9 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600, 6-1 in their last 7 during game 1 of a series, 20-6-1 in their last 27 vs. a team with a winning record and 9-3 in their last 12 road games. Los Angeles has seen the under go 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter, 4-1 in their last five at home and 19-6-1 in their last 26 at home against teams with a winning record. Kershaw is shutting teams down of late and the Dodgers haven’t been hitting much: look for this to stay under the already low total.

Under 6.5

4

Chris Kubala

Christopher Kubala has been crunching stats and following sports for over 30 years. His in depth analysis and passion for sports have led him to writing books about sports, regularly being featured on sports talk radio and as the go-to person for any obscure trivia. He keeps an eye on transactions and statistics like a hawk, especially when it comes to football, both the NFL and college, the NHL, the NBA and college basketball and MLB.

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