New York Yankees at Seattle Mariners
When and Where: Saturday, Sept. 8, Safeco Field, Seattle, Wash., 10:10 p.m. EDT.
A pair of struggling pitchers looking to right themselves square off in Seattle, where Felix Hernandez leads the Mariners into the middle game of their series Saturday night against Lance Lynn and the New York Yankees.
Lynn out to re-discover sharp form from first appearances with Yankees
Lynn (8-10, 5.10 ERA), who allowed one run over 16 1-3 innings in his first two starts and three overall appearances after being acquired from the Minnesota Twins on July 30, has looked awful in going 0-2 in his last four starts.
The right-hander has a 9.16 ERA in that span, getting tagged for 19 runs and 31 hits in 18 2-3 innings while opponents are hitting a torrid .356. Lynn was drilled for six runs and nine hits over 3 2-3 innings of an 11-7 loss to Detroit on Sunday.
His road form all season has also been poor, entering this game with a 3-7 record and 6.42 ERA in 13 starts. Lynn has given up five or more runs in six of those road outings and has also walked 33 in 67 1-3 innings, contributing to a 1.63 WHIP on the road.
If there is a silver lining for Lynn, it is that he has never faced the Mariners previously since he spent his entire career in St. Louis before signing as a free agent with Minnesota this season. Jean Segura fared well against Lynn in their National League days, going 10 for 29.
Hernandez looks to avoid career high-tying 14th loss for M’s
Hernandez (8-13, 5.55 ERA) has lost 14 games twice in his career, going 12-14 in 2006 and 14-14 in 2011. The veteran right-hander is on pace to have his worst single-season winning percentage and has never finished worse than two games below .500.
His personal losing streak hit seven games Sunday after being reached for four runs and four hits in five-plus innings of an 8-2 loss to Oakland. Hernandez had allowed only a solo homer in the first five innings before running into trouble in the sixth and failing to retire any of the three batters he faced.
Hernandez has posted a 6.46 ERA in eight starts and nine overall appearances during his career-high losing streak. He has pitched slightly better at home on the season, entering this game 4-5 with a 4.18 ERA in 13 starts at Safeco Field.
One of his better outings this season came at New York on June 20 when he yielded two runs and six hits in five innings, not getting a decision in Seattle’s 7-5 walk-off defeat. Hernandez is 10-7 with a 3.00 ERA in 22 career starts versus the Yankees but 3-5 against them at Safeco Field, where he has not beaten them in three starts since a win in 2012.
Brett Gardner is 13 for 36 with a homer versus Hernandez, and Giancarlo Stanton is 3 for 7 with a solo homer. Didi Gregorius, who was activated from the disabled list Friday after missing more than two weeks with a bruised heel, has only a double in 12 at-bats in their matchups.
The Mariners are:
- 1-7 in Hernandez’s last eight starts.
- 2-5 in Hernandez’s last seven starts vs. above-.500 teams.
- 1-4 in Hernandez’s last five home starts vs. the Yankees.
- The over is 12-3-1 in Hernandez’s last 16 starts vs. above-.500 teams.
- The over is 5-1 in Hernandez’s last six starts.
- The over is 3-1-1 in Hernandez’s last five home starts.
The Yankees are:
- 9-3 in their last 12 road games vs. right-handed starters.
- 16-6 in their last 22 games vs. right-handed starters.
- 37-15 in their last 52 games vs. starters with a WHIP above 1.30.
- The over is 13-6 in their last 19 during game 2 of a series.
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
With both pitchers severely struggling, the lean goes to the Yankees as they have scored five or more runs in four of their last seven games. They also outscored the Mariners 18-10 in a three-game sweep in the Bronx in June.
Prediction: Pick: Yankees -123
Full-Game Total Pick
Neither Lynn nor Hernandez can be trusted to turn in a dominant outing, and Gregorius’ return also brings a major piece of New York’s offense back into the fold. Teams have combined to score nine or more runs in Lynn’s last four starts for New York and reached double figures in five of Hernandez’s last six starts for Seattle.
Prediction: Pick: OVER 8.5 runs
Full-Game Prop Bet
The struggles for both pitchers leans towards a slugfest. The combined totals have been 27 or higher in each of Lynn’s last four starts and 28 or higher in two of Hernandez’s last four.
Prediction: Pick: OVER 27 Runs+Hits+Errors (-115)
First Five Innings Side Pick
The Yankees offense coupled with Hernandez’s struggles are enough to take a flyer on them covering after five innings. New York also has led after five innings in three of its four games with Seattle this year.
Prediction: PICK: Yankees -0.5 runs (+120)
First Five Innings Total Bet
Lynn has not lasted longer than 5 2-3 innings while yielding three or more runs in each of his last four starts, giving up 11 runs in the first five innings in those outings. Hernandez has also give up at least two runs in the first five innings in eight of his last nine starts.
Prediction: PICK: OVER 4.5 runs (-120)
First Five Innings Prop Prediction
Sticking with the trend of aggressively playing for runs, Hernandez has an 8.10 ERA in the first inning. Lynn is not much better at 6.23 ERA and has given up first-inning runs in two of his last four starts.
Prediction: Pick: YES to 1st-inning run (-105)