Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#567 Miami Heat -1 vs.
#568 San Antonio Spurs 221
Sunday, January 19, 2020 at 3:05pm EST
AT&T Center, San Antonio
Written by Chris Kubala

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#567 Miami
#568 San Antonio
29-12
17-23
23-16-2
14-24-2
25-15-1
24-14-2
111
113
107
114

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It’s an interconference matchup on the pro hardwood down in the Lone Star State. The Miami Heat is on the road as they make the trip to face the San Antonio Spurs Sunday afternoon. Miami knocked off Oklahoma City 115-108 on the road Friday night in their last contest. San Antonio was upended 121-120 at home by Atlanta in their previous contest Friday night. The Spurs lead the all-time regular season series between the teams 43-21 but the Heat has taken the last three meetings. That includes a 106-100 home win in the first meeting this season, which came Wednesday night.

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Miami Heat Cruising in Southeast Division Race

Miami earned their second straight win as they took down Oklahoma City on the road Friday night. The Heat entered Saturday with a 9.5-game advantage on the Magic in the Southeast Division race. In the Eastern Conference playoff picture, Miami is second, seven games behind the Bucks for the top spot. Miami ran to a 40-26 lead after the opening quarter and wasn’t threatened the rest of the way. The Heat didn’t see their lead trimmed below six over the final three quarters en route to the win. Miami shot 48.8 percent from the field, including 14 of 36 from three-point range, and won the rebounding battle 45-35. Kendrick Nunn led the Heat with 22 points in the win.

The Heat enters this one 12th in the league in scoring offense with 111.6 points per game this season. Miami is 16th in the league in rebounding with 45.5 boards a contest while the team stands 11th in assists by dishing out 25.2 dimes a night. The Heat stands 11th in the league in scoring defense as they allow 107.8 points per game. Jimmy Butler leads the team with 20.3 points, seven rebounds and 6.4 assists per game this season. Goran Dragic contributes 15.4 points, 2.9 rebounds and five assists per contest while Kendrick Nunn chips in 16 points a night. Justise Winslow adds 11.3 points, 6.6 rebounds and four assists per night. Bam Adebayo chips in 15.9 points, 10.4 rebounds plus 4.6 assists a game while Tyler Herro (13.4 points, 4.4 boards) and Duncan Robinson (11.8 points) are all putting together solid numbers so far this season. Miami is tied for 3rd in the league in field goal percentage as they shoot 47.2 percent from the floor this season. The Heat stands tied for 7th in threes per game by draining 12.5 triples per contest and the team is second in three-point shooting by hitting 37.8 percent from beyond the arc. Winslow is going to be re-evaluated in two weeks as he is dealing with a back injury. Herro is battling a knee injury that had him out of Friday’s contest.

San Antonio Spurs Try to Gain Ground in Western Conference Race

San Antonio lost for the third time in four games as they blew a fourth-quarter advantage to lose to the Hawks at home Friday night. The Spurs entered Saturday fourth in the Southwest Division, nine games behind the Rockets for the top spot. In the Western Conference playoff picture, San Antonio was ninth, two games behind the Grizzlies for the final playoff spot. The Spurs trailed by two after one quarter and by nine at the half before outscoring the Hawks 41-21 in the third quarter to lead by 11. San Antonio led 120-114 with 1:25 to play but was outscored 7-0 the rest of the way to end up with the loss. The Spurs shot 45.9 percent from the field, including eight of 29 from three-point range, and allowed the Hawks to shoot 50 percent in the contest. LaMarcus Aldridge led the Spurs with 30 points in the loss before fouling out with 1:09 to play.

The Spurs are average offensively this season, ranking 8th in scoring offense with 113.8 points per game. San Antonio is 6th in rebounding with 46.6 boards a contest while the team is 12th in assists with 24.8 dimes per game. San Antonio is 26th in the league in scoring defense as they allow 114.9 points a game. DeMar DeRozan leads the team with 22.7 points per contest this season. LaMarcus Aldridge (19.1 points, 7.5 rebounds), Bryn Forbes (11.3 points) and Derrick White (9.5 points) are solid contributors as well on the offensive end. Dejounte Murray (10.2 points, six rebounds, 4.1 assists), Patty Mills (11.8 points) and Rudy Gay (10.7 points, 5.8 rebounds) are solid secondary scoring options. The Spurs are tied for 3rd in the league by shooting 47.2 percent from the field. San Antonio is 28th in three-point field goals per game with 10.2 per contest. The Spurs are 7th in the league by knocking down 36.5 percent of their long-range attempts.

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Full-Game Side Bet

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Miami has struggled a bit on the road this season as they come in 11-11 as the visiting team this season compared to their 18-1 home mark. The Heat beat the Spurs earlier this week at home and we just saw San Antonio blow a double-digit lead after three quarters against the lowly Hawks. The Spurs beat the Bucks, Celtics and Raptors recently but the loss to Atlanta shows how inconsistent they are. Gregg Popovich didn’t mince words about Friday’s loss saying that “People should have left and asked for their money back after the first half.” That’s the inconsistency of the Spurs in a nutshell. Miami is a deep rotation and their talent carries them to the road win here to sweep the season series.

Prediction: Miami Heat +1

Full-Game Total Pick

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San Antonio just saw Atlanta hang 121 points on them Friday night in their last contest. The Spurs are eighth in the league in scoring offense while the Heat is 12th in that department. San Antonio has serious issues on the defensive end of the floor as they are 26th in the league in field goal percentage defense (46.3 percent) and 20th in three-point field goal percentage defense (36.7 percent) this season. Miami is going to test the Spurs as the Heat is eighth in field goal percentage defense (44.5 percent) and lead the league in three-point field goal percentage defense (32.8 percent) this season. After seeing Atlanta torch San Antonio Friday night, this one ends up over the total.

Prediction: Over 221

Half-Time Side Pick

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The Heat is seventh in the league in first half scoring offense as they put up an average of 58 points per game this season. Miami is third in the league in first half scoring differential with a +4.3 ppg margin though that number drops to +0.9 ppg on the road this season. San Antonio is tied for 15th in scoring offense with 55.3 points per game on the year. The Spurs are 19th in scoring margin with a -0.7 ppg margin in the first half this season. That number drops to -2.5 ppg at home. Based on that, give the edge to Miami at the half here.

Prediction: Miami Heat 'Em

Half-Time Total Bet

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Miami is 11th in the league in first half scoring defense as they allow 53.7 points per game on the year. That gives the Heat an average of 111.7 points per game in the first half of their games this season. San Antonio stands 17th in the league in first half scoring defense as they allow 55.9 points per half on the year. That gives the average first half of San Antonio's games as having an average of 111.2 ppg this season. Given that both teams have an average total close to this mark, look for one or both teams to get an extra bucket to push this one over the total.

Prediction: Over 113.5
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Written By Chris Kubala

Christopher Kubala has been crunching stats and following sports for over 30 years. His in-depth analysis and passion for sports have led him to writing books about sports, regularly being featured on sports talk radio and as the go-to person for any obscure trivia. Now he is writing for our team here at Winners @ Whiners. Chris keeps an eye on transactions and statistics like a hawk, especially when it comes to football, both the NFL and college. He is also very knowledgeable in the NHL, the NBA, college basketball and MLB. If you want consistency, then be sure and check out Chris’ content daily.