Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#2563 Denver Nuggets vs.
#2564 Milwaukee Bucks
Wednesday, January 25, 2023 at 8:10pm EST
BMO Harris Bradley Center, Milwaukee
Written by Mason Folz

This article covers a past game!

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This Wednesday, the (33-14) Denver Nuggets will travel to Milwaukee, WI to take on the (30-17) Milwaukee Bucks. Tipoff will be at 8:00 PM EST inside the Fiserv Forum. This will be the first time that these two teams have matched up this season, as I am expecting a battle in this one!

The Denver Nuggets are coming into this one after falling to the OKC Thunder, 101-99. The Nuggets also battled with the Pelicans on Tuesday night. They struggled on the offensive end of the floor, as they will have to heat up in this one if they want to challenge the Bucks on the road.

The Milwaukee Bucks are entering this game after taking down the Detroit Pistons, 150-130. They were great on the offensive end of the floor, as they shot 56.1% from the field. They will have to stay efficient in this one if they want to take down the Nuggs at home.

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This game was written/published before last night's results.

Can the Nuggets Bounce Back?

The Denver Nuggets currently sit at the top of the Western Conference standings, as they have a 2-game lead over the Memphis Grizzlies. On offense, they are scoring 117.2 points per game and they have shot 51% from the floor. This is the fifth most points scored per game and the highest team shooting percentage. According to dunksandthrees.com, the Nuggets have an adjusted offensive rating of 117.8, which is the second-highest rating in the NBA. Nikola Jokic has continued to lead the way on the offensive end of the floor, but he is currently listed as questionable with a hamstring injury. He is scoring 25.1 points per game on 62.6% shooting from the field. Denver has also shown that they have multiple players that can heat up from behind the arc. They are shooting 39.8% from deep, which is the highest three-point shooting percentage in the league. Unfortunately, they have been terrible at the charity stripe. They are only making 74.2% of their shots at the line, which is the 27th-highest free-throw shooting percentage in the NBA.

On the defensive end of the court, the Nuggets are allowing 112.9 points per contest and their opponents have shot 47.9% from the floor. This is the 13th least amount of points surrendered per game and the 23rd-lowest shooting percentage allowed. According to dunksandthrees.com, the Nuggets have an adjusted defensive rating of 114.2, which is the 16th lowest rating in the NBA. The Denver Nuggets have also shown that they will contest shots near the rim and on the perimeter. Their opponents have only shot 34.8% from deep, which is the seventh-lowest three-point shooting percentage allowed. The Nuggs have also snatched 42.9 rebounds per game, which is the 16th most in the league.

Injury Report: Michael Porter Jr. SF (Personal), Bones Hyland PG (Finger), and Nikola Jokic C (Hamstring) are questionable.

Will the Bucks Show Up at Home?

The Milwaukee Bucks are currently in third place in the Eastern Conference standings, as they are 4.5 games back from the first-place Boston Celtics. On offense, they are scoring 113.2 points per game and they have shot 45.8% from the floor. This is the 18th most points scored per game and the 23rd-highest team shooting percentage. According to dunksandthrees.com, the Bucks have an adjusted offensive rating of 112.4, which is the 23rd-highest rating in the NBA. Giannis Antetokounmpo continues to lead the way on the offensive end of the court, as he is scoring 30.9 points per game on 52.4% shooting from the field. Milwaukee has also shown that they have more success when they are attacking the basket. They are shooting 35.7% from deep, which is the 17th-highest three-point shooting percentage in the league. They have also shot 74.3% from the charity stripe, which is the 26th-lowest free-throw shooting percentage.

On the defensive end of the court, the Bucks are allowing 111.8 points per game and they have forced their opponents to shoot 45.7% from the floor. This is the sixth least amount of points surrendered per contest and the fourth-lowest shooting percentage allowed. According to dunksandthrees.com, the Bucks have an adjusted defensive rating of 111.2, which is the third-lowest rating in the NBA. The Milwaukee Bucks have also shown that they will challenge shots near the rim and on the perimeter. They have forced their opponents to shoot 35% from behind the arc, which is the eighth-lowest three-point shooting percentage allowed. The Bucks have averaged 48.3 rebounds per game as well. This is the second most in the NBA, as they will have to crash the offensive and defensive glass if they want to challenge the Nuggets at home.

Injury Report: Bobby Portis PF (Knee) is questionable. Serge Ibaka PF (Personal) is out.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

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I am going to roll with the Bucks at home and I am going to lay the points (-6). The Nuggets are banged up right now and I don't see them being healthy enough to cover the spread in this game. Denver has also struggled on the defensive end of the court, as they will allow the Bucks to consistently score throughout this game. Denver is allowing the 13th least amount of points per game, but they only have the 16th lowest adjusted defensive rating and they are holding their opponents to the 23rd-lowest shooting percentage from the field. The Bucks will be able to attack the basket and score enough points to cover this spread. Now, the Nuggets have been elite offensively this season, but if Jokic and MPJ don't play, they will be in huge trouble. The Nuggets look like a completely different team on offense without Jokic on the floor, as this could really hurt them in this game. Milwaukee is also elite on defense, as they are holding their opponents to the sixth least amount of points per game and they have the third lowest adjusted defensive rating. They will get consistent stops throughout and dominate at home.

Pick the Milwaukee Bucks and lay the points (-6).

Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks -6

Full-Game Total Pick

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I will be hammering the under (225.5) in this matchup, as I don't see either team scoring enough points to push this total over the number. According to dunksandthrees.com, the Bucks have the 15th-lowest adjusted tempo rating and the Nuggets have the 21st-lowest. Neither team will race the ball up the court and they will use the majority of the shot clock each time they come down the floor. This will limit the number of shots taken from the field, as neither of these teams will have enough opportunities to reach this over. The Bucks have also been elite on defense, as I see them consistently stopping the banged-up Nuggets. Milwaukee currently has the third-lowest adjusted defensive rating and they are holding their opponents to the sixth least amount of points scored per game. Denver will struggle and fail to score enough points to push this total over the number. Now, the Bucks haven't been anything special on the offensive end either. They are only scoring the 18th most points per game and they have the 23rd-highest team shooting percentage. They will go cold at different times and keep this total under the number.

Pick the under (225.5) and expect a slow-paced, defensive battle in this one.

Prediction: Under 225.5
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Written By Mason Folz , "Mason Folz"

Mason graduated from the University of Colorado, Boulder and he has been watching SportsCenter since before he could walk. He has been crunching numbers since he could learn to count and nothing makes Mason happier in this world than talking sports, unless he is on the golf course! We are very happy to have added Mason to our team at StatSalt and you will be glad as well. Let's win some money!