Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#5509 Dallas Mavericks vs.
#5510 Phoenix Suns
Thursday, January 26, 2023 at 10:00pm EST
Talking Stick Resort Arena, Phoenix
Written by Mason Folz

This article covers a past game!

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This Thursday, the (25-24) Dallas Mavericks will travel to Phoenix, AZ to take on the (25-24) Phoenix Suns. Tipoff will be at 10:00 PM EST inside the Footprint Center. This will be the third meeting between these two teams this regular season, as the Mavericks won the last battle, 130-111.

The Dallas Mavericks are coming into this one after falling to the Washington Wizards, 127-126. The Mavs struggled on the defensive end of the court, as they will have to apply more pressure if they want to challenge the Suns on the road.

The Phoenix Suns are entering this game after beating the Charlotte Hornets, 128-97. They were stellar on both ends of the court, as they will have to stay hot in this one if they want to challenge the Mavericks on the road.

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This game was written/published before last night's results.

Can the Mavs Heat Up on the Road?

The Dallas Mavericks are currently in sixth place in the Western Conference standings, as they are 9.5 games back from the first-place Denver Nuggets. On offense, they are scoring 112.9 points per game and they have shot 47.2% from the floor. This is the 21st most points scored per contest and the 16th-highest team shooting percentage. According to dunksandthrees.com, the Mavs have an adjusted offensive rating of 115.9, which is the fifth-highest rating in the NBA. Luka Doncic continues to lead the way on the offensive end of the court, as he is scoring 33.8 points per game on 49.8% shooting from the floor. Dallas has also shown that they can consistently knock down shots from behind the arc. They are shooting 36.1% from behind the arc, which is the 13th-highest three-point shooting percentage in the league. Unfortunately, they have not taken advantage of their opportunities at the charity stripe. The Dallas Mavericks have only cashed in on 74.4% from the line, which is the 26th-highest free-throw shooting percentage in the league.

On the defensive end of the court, the Mavericks are surrendering 112.5 points per game and they have allowed their opponents to shoot 48.1% from the floor. This is the 25th-lowest shooting percentage allowed, but only the 12th-least amount of points given up per contest. According to dunksandthrees.com, the Mavericks have an adjusted defensive rating of 115.7, which is the 25th lowest rating in the NBA. They have struggled to consistently contest shots near the rim, but their perimeter defense has saved them at different times. Dallas is only allowing their opponents to shoot 35.6% from deep, which is the 12th-lowest three-point shooting percentage allowed. The Dallas Mavericks are also snatching 38.6 rebounds per game, which is the least in the league.

Injury Report: Christian Wood PF (Thigh) and Maxi Kleber PF (Hamstring) are out.

Will the Suns Stay Hot at Home?

The Phoenix Suns have dropped to seventh place in the Western Conference standings, as they are also 9.5 games back from the Denver Nuggets. On offense, the Suns are scoring 113 points per game and they have shit 46.3% from the floor. This is the 20th most points scored per contest and the 22nd-highest team shooting percentage. According to dunksandthrees.com, the Suns have an adjusted offensive rating of 114.1, which is the 15th-highest rating in the NBA. They have not been as efficient since losing Devin Booker to a groin injury. Mikal Bridges continues to lead the way on the offensive end, as he is scoring 16.4 points per game on 45.8% shooting. Phoenix has also shown that they can get extremely hot from behind the three-point arc. They have shot 38.8% from deep, which is the third-highest three-point shooting percentage in the league. They have also taken care of business at the charity stripe, as they have shot 79.5% from the line. This is the seventh-highest free-throw shooting percentage, as they can't miss out on these free points and still expect to win this game.

On the defensive end of the court, the Suns are allowing 111.7 points per game and their opponents have shot 47% from the floor. This is the sixth least amount of points surrendered per game and the 13th-lowest shooting percentage allowed. According to dunksandthrees.com, Phoenix has an adjusted defensive rating of 112.8, which is the 11th-lowest rating in the NBA. They have shown that they will consistently contest shots near the rim, but their perimeter defense has lacked against three-point shooting teams. They have allowed their opponents to shoot 36.2% from behind the arc, which is the 16th-lowest three-point shooting percentage allowed in the league. The Phoenix Suns are also grabbing 43.6 rebounds per game, which is the 14th most.

Injury Report: Devin Booker SG (Groin), Cam Payne PG (Foot), and Jae Crowder SF (Personal) are out. Deandre Ayton C (Illness) and Landry Shamet PG (Foot) are questionable.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

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I will be rolling with the Dallas Mavericks on the road and I am going to lay the point (-1). Yes, the Suns have won a few games in a row, but they are extremely banged up right now. They could also be without Ayton in this game, as I see this being a huge loss. The Mavericks will be able to score consistently throughout this game, as Luka has been on fire and the Mavs have the fifth-highest adjusted offensive rating. They can score from anywhere on the court and the Suns have struggled to defend on the perimeter. Dallas will light them up from the outside and this will allow them to slowly pull away. Phoenix will also struggle to score enough points to cover this spread. Dallas is holding their opponents to the 12th least amount of points scored per game and I just don't trust this Suns team without Booker or possibly Ayton. Phoenix will struggle on both ends of the court and the Mavericks will bounce back on the road.

Pick the Dallas Mavericks and lay the points (-1).

Prediction: Dallas Mavericks -1

Full-Game Total Pick

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I will be hammering the under in this game, as I don't see either team taking enough shots to push this total over the number. According to dunksandthrees.com, the Mavericks have the second-lowest adjusted tempo rating in the league and the Suns have the 22nd-lowest. Neither team will look to score in transition or push the ball up the court with pace, as this will limit the number of shots taken from the field. The Suns are also still without Booker and Ayton could be out in this game, as I see this hurting them on the offensive end. The Mavs are also holding their opponents to the 12th least amount of points per game. Dallas will apply pressure consistently throughout this game and keep the Suns from scoring enough points to push this total over the number. Now, the Mavs will slow this game down and they will be challenged by the Suns' defense. Phoenix is allowing the sixth least amount of points per game and they have the 11th lowest adjusted defensive rating. They will key in on Luka and make it difficult for the Mavs to consistently score.

Pick the under and expect a slow-paced, defensive battle in this one.

Prediction: Under
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Written By Mason Folz , "Mason Folz"

Mason graduated from the University of Colorado, Boulder and he has been watching SportsCenter since before he could walk. He has been crunching numbers since he could learn to count and nothing makes Mason happier in this world than talking sports, unless he is on the golf course! We are very happy to have added Mason to our team at StatSalt and you will be glad as well. Let's win some money!