Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#531 Dallas Mavericks -1 vs.
#532 Oklahoma City Thunder 224
Monday, January 27, 2020 at 8:05pm EST
Chesapeake Enery Arena, Oklahoma City
Written by Chris Kubala

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#531 Dallas
#532 Oklahoma City
28-17
28-19
26-19
31-15-1
27-18
22-25
116
110
109
108

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A pair of Western Conference teams solidly in the playoff picture take the floor in the Sooner State. The Dallas Mavericks are on the road as they travel to face the Oklahoma City Thunder Monday night. Dallas was defeated 112-107 on the road by the Jazz Saturday afternoon in their last contest. Oklahoma City defeated Minnesota 113-104 on the road Saturday night in their previous game. The Thunder leads the all-time regular season series 83-76, including a 106-101 home win in the first matchup this season on December 31, 2019.

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Dallas Mavericks Try to Bounce Back

Dallas was beaten for the second time in three games as they were unable to slow down Utah late on the road. The Mavericks entered Sunday second in the Southwest Division, half a game behind the Rockets for the top spot. In the Western Conference playoff picture, Dallas stood sixth, 7.5 games behind the Lakers for the top spot. Dallas led by 11 after the opening quarter, by three at the half and by four after three quarters. The Mavericks held a one-point lead with 52.2 seconds to play after a three-point bucket by Tim Hardaway Jr. but they were scoreless the rest of the game as the Jazz scored the final six points of the game. Dallas shot 43.3 percent from the field, including 16 of 41 from three-point range, and lost the rebounding battle 54-44. Luka Doncic led the Mavericks with 25 points, six rebounds and seven assists per contest.

The Mavericks enter this contest third in the league in scoring offense with 116.6 points per game on the season. Dallas stands fourth in rebounding with 47.4 boards per game while they rank 15th in assists by dishing out 24.1 dimes per contest. The Mavericks are 14th in scoring defense as they allow an average of 109.8 points per game on the year. Luka Doncic leads the team with 29 points, 9.5 rebounds and 8.9 assists per contest this season. Kristaps Porzingis contributes 17.1 points plus nine rebounds per game while Tim Hardaway Jr. (14.2 points) is also a solid contributor on the offensive end. Maxi Kleber (9.2 points), Dorian Finney-Smith, Seth Curry (10.8 points) and Dwight Powell are key pieces in the Mavericks’ rotation. Dallas is tied for 11th in field goal percentage as they shoot 46.3 percent as a team from beyond the arc. The Mavericks are second by knocking down 15 three-pointers per contest on the year. Dallas stands 8th in three-point shooting as they hit 36.6 percent from beyond the arc this season. The Mavericks acquired Willie Cauley-Stein from the Warriors to replace Dwight Powell, who was lost for the season with a torn Achilles on January 21 against the Clippers.

Oklahoma City Thunder Seeking Sixth Straight Win

Oklahoma City earned their fifth straight win as they used a dominant third quarter to roll past Minnesota on the road Saturday night. The Thunder entered Sunday third in the Northwest Division standings, five games behind the Jazz. In the Western Conference playoff picture, Oklahoma City is seventh, 8.5 games behind the Lakers for the top spot. The Thunder led by six after the opening quarter and by four at the half before breaking the game open with a 39-24 advantage in the third quarter. Oklahoma City hung on down the stretch as Minnesota closed within five late to earn the win. The Thunder shot 48.8 percent from the field, including 11 of 24 from three-point range, and knocked down 24 of 25 free throw attempts. Dennis Schroder led the Thunder with 26 points off the bench in the win.

The Thunder enters this one 17th in the league in scoring offense as they average 110.6 points per game. Oklahoma City is 23rd in rebounding with 43.3 boards a night while ranking 26th in assists by dishing out 21.9 dimes per game. The Thunder stands 11th in the league in scoring defense by allowing 108.1 points per contest. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is leading Oklahoma City with 19.7 points plus six rebounds per game on the season. Danilo Gallinari contributes 19.1 points plus 5.8 rebounds per game while Chris Paul chips in 17.2 points plus 6.4 assists a night. The Thunder can look to Steven Adams (11 points, 9.5 rebounds) and Dennis Schroder (18.8 points, 3.8 rebounds, 3.9 assists) in order to get their offense going. Terrance Ferguson, Mike Muscala, Abdel Nader and Darius Bazley all have to contribute for the Thunder to have success. Oklahoma City is tied for 5th in the league in field goal percentage as they hit 47.2 percent from the floor as a team this season. The Thunder is tied for 24th in threes made per game as they drain 10.5 per contest while ranking tied for 18th by hitting 35.2 percent of their attempts from beyond the arc.

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Full-Game Side Bet

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Several role players for the Thunder are banged up, which could impact their rotation here. Nader has been out with an ankle injury while Gallinari missed Saturday’s game with a sore thumb. In addition, Nerlens Noel had surgery to repair a cheek fracture on January 24 and is expected to be re-evaluated sometime this week. Dallas made a move to get a big man after losing Powell though it will be interesting to see how Cauley-Stein fits in the mix. With that said, the Thunder is playing their third game in four nights here and that’s going to be tough against an up-tempo Mavericks team. Look for Doncic and Porzingis to do the damage on the offensive end to help Dallas get the win at home.

 

Prediction: Dallas Mavericks

Full-Game Total Pick

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This game features a couple of teams that aren't prone to pushing the pace and running the floor in transition. The Thunder stands 22nd in the league in pace with 98.7 possessions per game on the year while the Mavericks are 23rd with 98.6 possessions a night. Oklahoma City is 15th in the league in field goal percentage defense (45.6 percent) and 10th in three-point field goal percentage defense (34.4 percent) this season. Dallas is 11th in field goal percentage defense (45 percent) and fourth in three-point field goal percentage defense (34 percent) on the year. With the Thunder playing their third game in four nights and the Mavericks a decent defensive team, this one ends up under the number.

Prediction: Under

Half-Time Side Pick

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Dallas is fourth in the league in first half scoring offense with an average of 59 points per game on the year. That number actually improves on the road as they average 61.4 points a night as the visitor. Dallas is tied for seventh in first half scoring differential with a +2.3 ppg margin. That number improves to +4.3 ppg on the road, which is second-best in the league behind only the Bucks. Oklahoma City is 19th in first half scoring offense as they put up 54.4 ppg this season. They average 56 ppg in the first half at home so there is a slight improvement. The Thunder stands 14th in the league in first half scoring differential with a +0.3 ppg margin this season. Dallas's ability to start strong on the road gives them the edge at the half.

Prediction: Dallas Mavericks

Half-Time Total Bet

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Dallas is tied for 19th in first half scoring defense as they allow 56.7 ppg this season. That number creeps up slightly to 57.1 ppg on the road. On the year, the Mavericks see an average of 115.7 ppg in the first half of their games this season. Oklahoma City is 11th in the league in first half scoring defense as they allow an average of 54.1 points per game. The Thunder gives up an average of 55.8 ppg at home this season. Oklahoma City's typical first half sees an average of 108.5 ppg this season. Seeing how the Thunder is going to be a bit fatigued after playing Friday and Saturday, this one will be a little slower than normal, keeping things under the total.

Prediction: Under
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Written By Chris Kubala

Christopher Kubala has been crunching stats and following sports for over 30 years. His in-depth analysis and passion for sports have led him to writing books about sports, regularly being featured on sports talk radio and as the go-to person for any obscure trivia. Now he is writing for our team here at Winners @ Whiners. Chris keeps an eye on transactions and statistics like a hawk, especially when it comes to football, both the NFL and college. He is also very knowledgeable in the NHL, the NBA, college basketball and MLB. If you want consistency, then be sure and check out Chris’ content daily.