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Miami Heat vs. Indiana Pacers Prediction,
Preview,
and Odds - 11-16-2018

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#703 Miami
Heat 212
#704 Indiana
Pacers -5.5

Friday, November 16, 2018 at 7:05pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

Miami Heat

6 - 8

42-41
ATS
39-45
O/U
103
PPG
103
OPPG

Indiana Pacers

8 - 6

52-36
ATS
34-53
O/U
105
PPG
103
OPPG

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It’s a battle of Eastern Conference foes in the Hoosier State. The Miami Heat is on the road as they travel to the Midwest to face the Indiana Pacers Friday night. Miami got back in the win column as they downed Brooklyn 120-107 on the road Wednesday night. Indiana fell 115-103 on the road to Houston in their last game Sunday night. The Pacers lead the all-time regular season series 64-47 and they took the first matchup between the teams this season, 110-102, on the road back on November 9.

Miami Heat Seeking Back to Back Road Wins

Miami managed to snap a three-game losing skid as they clipped the Nets on the road Wednesday night. The Heat look to win back to back road games and avenge last Friday’s home loss to the Pacers. Miami ran to a 16 point lead after the opening quarter and never saw their lead fall below seven the rest of the way. The Heat shot a sizzling 54.1 percent from the field despite going eight of 29 from three-point range. Miami’s hot shooting, coupled with the Nets being held to 40.2 percent shooting, helped the Heat overcome 17 turnovers. Tyler Johnson led the Heat with 24 points off the bench in the win. The Heat is 3-3 ATS on the road this season while the over is 5-1 in those contests.

The Heat has been solid offensively so far this season, ranking 12th in the league with 111.5 points per game. Miami has been above average on the glass as they are 6th with 47.4 boards per game. The Heat is 19th in assists with 22.7 dimes per contest. Miami comes in 18th in scoring defense as they allow 111.3 points per game. Goran Dragic is second on the Heat with 17.1 points and 4.8 assists per game this season. Josh Richardson (team-high 20.1 points), Rodney McGruder (12.8 points, 5.2 rebounds) and Dwyane Wade (14.3 points) are solid contributors. Hassan Whiteside (13.9 points, 14.8 rebounds, 3.23 blocks) is a force in the low block while Derrick Jones Jr. and Kelly Olynyk have proven to be reliable options. Justise Winslow, Bam Adebayo and Tyler Johnson are key pieces off the bench: the team hopes to have James Johnson back soon after offseason hernia surgery. Miami is 21st in field goal percentage as they shoot 44.8 percent as a team. The Heat stands 7th with 12.1 three pointers a night and tied for 7th in three point shooting at 36.7 percent. Wade (personal) is out until late November as he spends time with his newly born daughter.

Indiana Pacers Well Rested For Home Tilt

Indiana has been off since Sunday when they were knocked off on the road by the Rockets. The Pacers have had four days off since that game, giving them plenty of time to rest and prepare for this contest. Indiana was within one point at the half but was bombed 44-23 in the second quarter to go down 22: they never drew closer than eight the rest of the way. The Pacers shot 46.2 percent from the field in the contest and went 11 of 29 from three point range while allowing Houston to knock down 20 threes. Victor Oladipo led the Pacers with 22 points, 10 rebounds and seven assists in the loss. Indiana is 3-3 ATS at home this season and the under is 5-1 in those games.

The Pacers are 23rd in the league in scoring with 105.7 points a night. Indiana is 29th in the league in rebounding by collecting 40.3 boards per game. The Pacers are 23rd in assists with 22.2 per game but have been solid defensively this season. Indiana is 3rd in the league in scoring defense, allowing 103 points per game. Victor Oladipo leads the Pacers with 23.8 points plus 7.1 rebounds and 1.79 steals per contest. Myles Turner averages 10.9 points plus 4.8 rebounds and 2.43 blocks per game. Darren Collison (9.6 points, four assists), Thaddeus Young (10.1 points, 5.5 rebounds), Domantas Sabonis (14.1 points, 8.8 rebounds) and Bojan Bogdanovic (14.1 points) are contributing offensively. The Pacers also rely on Tyreke Evans (10.3 points), Doug McDermott, Cory Joseph and Kyle O’Quinn in their rotation in order to have success. Indiana is 4th in the league by shooting 48.4 percent from the field. The Pacers are 29th with nine threes per game. Indiana stands 9th in the league as they’re knocking down 36.6 percent from beyond the arc.

The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.

Full-Game Side Bet
Rating:

These teams met a week ago but the Heat has Dragic back in this one after he missed the previous game. Miami has struggled on the road this season and they are going to have a tough time against an Indiana team that is well rested and healthy. The Pacers are ready to bounce back after their showing against the Rockets. Indiana has a deep bench group and that’s something that Miami lacks. Look for the Pacers to make it two straight wins over the Heat as they regroup at home.

Prediction: Indiana Pacers -4.5

Full-Game Total Pick
Rating:

Indiana’s defense has been terrific this season as they are third in the league in scoring defense. Miami has been up and down this season on both ends as they tend to follow up solid showings with duds. The Heat is going to have to come up with a more cohesive plan and hope their bench group can step up without Wade in the mix. Johnson had a big game in the win over the Nets but he’s struggled with his shot most of the year. Can the Heat take care of business on the road here?

The under is 24-9 in the Heat’s last 33 on Friday. Indiana has seen the under go 6-0 in their last 6 games playing on 3 or more days rest, 4-0 in their last four at home, 4-1 in their last five after scoring at least 100 points and 8-3 in their last 11 games on Friday. Indiana’s defense does the job and helps keep this one under the number as the Heat continues their maddening inconsistency.

Prediction: Under 212

Chris Kubala

Christopher Kubala has been crunching stats and following sports for over 30 years. His in depth analysis and passion for sports have led him to writing books about sports, regularly being featured on sports talk radio and as the go-to person for any obscure trivia. He keeps an eye on transactions and statistics like a hawk, especially when it comes to football, both the NFL and college, the NHL, the NBA and college basketball and MLB.

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