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Miami Heat vs. Golden State Warriors,
11-6-2017 - Expert Prediction

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#505 Miami
Heat
#506 Golden State
Warriors

Monday, November 6, 2017 at 10:35pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

Miami Heat

3 - 5

49-33
ATS
38-44
O/U
103
PPG
102
OPPG

Golden State Warriors

7 - 3

51-45
ATS
45-53
O/U
116
PPG
104
OPPG

Betting Trends

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Miami Heat (3-5 SU, 1-5-2 ATS, 4-4 O/U) vs. Golden State Warriors (7-3 SU, 4-6 ATS, 7-3 O/U)

NBA: Monday, November 6, 2017, Oracle Arena, Oakland, California, 10:30 pm ET

Line: Golden State -15.5; Over/Under: 226

It’s an inter-conference clash in the City by the Bay. The Miami Heat continue a road swing out west as they face the defending champs in the Golden State Warriors Monday night. Miami was in action Sunday afternoon on the road against the Clippers. Golden State won their third straight and sixth in the last seven games as they rolled to a 127-108 road win over Denver Saturday night. The Warriors have a narrow 29-28 advantage in the all-time series between the teams though they split a pair of games last season, both winning at home.

Miami Heat Trying to Get On Track

Miami was in action against the Clippers Sunday afternoon hoping to get back to some semblance of good play. The Heat had dropped four of their last five entering Sunday’s contest. Miami plays the third game of this six-game trip, which also has stops in Phoenix, Utah and Detroit, here. The Heat entered Sunday 12th in the Eastern Conference, 3.5 games behind Boston for the top spot. Miami stands 2.5 games behind the Magic in the Southeast Division standings. The Heat was 0-2 on the road and 0-3 against Western Conference opponents entering Sunday’s action.

The Heat has been mediocre offensively so far this season, ranking 22nd in the league with 103.5 points per game. Miami has been below average on the glass as they are 20th with 42.6 boards per game. The Heat is 21st in assists with 21.1 per contest. Miami comes in 13th in scoring defense as they allow 105.1 points per game. Hassan Whiteside is second on the team with 17.3 points plus 13 boards a night but missed five games with a knee bruise. Goran Dragic averages 20.3 points, four rebounds and 4.8 assists per game while Dion Waiters puts up 15.9 points per contest. James Johnson (12.4 points, 6.6 boards, 4.6 assists), Kelly Olynyk (11.4 points, 6.1 rebounds) and Josh Richardson (10 points, 3.6 rebounds) are solid secondary options. The Heat also look to Wayne Ellington, Tyler Johnson and Justise Winslow to contribute on both ends. Miami is 9th in field goal percentage as they shoot 46.4 percent as a team. The Heat stands 9h with 10.8 three pointers a night and tied for 22nd in three point shooting at 33.9 percent.

Golden State Warriors Look to Keep Rolling

Golden State reeled off their third straight win as they finished a road trip against Western Conference foes 3-0 after dispatching the Nuggets. The Warriors have their offense firing on all cylinders at the moment as they seem to be back to their normal form after a sluggish start to the season. Golden State led by 13 after the opening quarter but saw their lead trimmed to five at the half before taking control. A 43-21 bulge in the third quarter gave the Warriors the game in hand. Golden State shot 54.9 percent from the field and knocked down 18 of 40 three point attempts in the win. Kevin Durant led the Warriors with 25 points, seven rebounds and seven assists in the win.

The Warriors come into this one #1 in the league in scoring with 120.7 points per game. Golden State stands 14th in rebounding with 44.4 per contest. The Warriors are leading the league by dishing out 31.5 assists a night. Golden State is scuffling defensively as they are 26th in scoring defense, allowing 111.3 points a night. Kevin Durant is the team’s second-leading scorer this season, posting 25.2 points and 7.7 rebounds per game. Stephen Curry leads the team with 26.7 points plus 6.6 assists while Klay Thompson contributes 21 points a night. Draymond Green is chipping in with 9.7 points, 7.8 rebounds and 7.2 assists so far this year. Zaza Pachulia, Andre Iguodala, David West, Nick Young and Shaun Livingston are key complementary pieces for the Warriors’ rotation. The Warriors are first in the league, shooting 52.6 percent from the floor as a team. Golden State is 2nd with 13.9 triples a night while the team stands 2nd by sinking 41.4 percent of their attempts from beyond the arc.

Trends:

Miami

  • Heat are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record
  • Heat are 1-7-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall
  • Heat are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600

Golden State

  • Warriors are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record
  • Warriors are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Monday games

The Heat is playing the second game of a back to back here and facing the Warriors just compounds that misery. Miami has struggled of late with four losses in five games entering Sunday and they’re going to have their work cut out for them here. Golden State has a ton of weapons and we just saw them dismantle the Spurs, Clippers and Nuggets by a combined 67 points. The Warriors have their swagger back and that’s a dangerous proposition for the rest of the league. It’s a big line but give the points and take the hosts here.

Pick: Golden State Warriors -15.5

Golden State is happy to return to the Oracle Arena and has to be feeling good after three straight blowout wins on the road. The Warriors have taken six of their last seven after losing two of their first three games. Miami, on the other hand, had lost four of five going into Sunday as they still have to get Whiteside reestablished on the offensive end of the floor. This may not be the game for that as the Warriors are quick, deep and don’t tend to rely on a typical big man in the lineup. That might render Whiteside’s defensive prowess ineffective.

The over is 6-2 in Miami’s last eight games against the Western Conference. Golden State has seen the over go 6-0 in their last six games on Monday, 8-1 in their last nine games playing on one day of rest, 6-1 in their last seven games against Eastern Conference foes and 5-1 in their last six games at home. Given Golden State’s high powered offense and the Heat playing the second game of a back to back, this one could go over the total.

Over 226

4

Chris Kubala

Christopher Kubala has been crunching stats and following sports for over 30 years. His in depth analysis and passion for sports have led him to writing books about sports, regularly being featured on sports talk radio and as the go-to person for any obscure trivia. He keeps an eye on transactions and statistics like a hawk, especially when it comes to football, both the NFL and college, the NHL, the NBA and college basketball and MLB.

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