Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#509 Indiana Pacers -2 vs.
#510 Detroit Pistons 213
Friday, December 6, 2019 at 7:05pm EST
Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Written by Chris Kubala

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#509 Indiana
#510 Detroit
14-7
8-14
40-45-1
42-43-1
35-50-1
41-44-1
107
106
104
107

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A pair of Central Division teams take the floor in the Motor City looking for a victory. The Indiana Pacers are on the road as they travel to face the Detroit Pistons Friday night. Indiana comes in off a 107-100 road win over Oklahoma City Wednesday night in their last game. Detroit was waxed 127-103 at home by Milwaukee Wednesday night in their previous game. The Pacers own a 101-96 advantage in the all-time regular-season series between the teams with the Pistons taking two of three this season. In the most recent meeting, it was Indiana taking a 112-106 home win on November 8.

Indiana Pacers Try for Third Straight Win

Indiana earned back to back wins to finish a three-game road trip 2-1 as they knocked off Oklahoma City Wednesday night. The Pacers entered Thursday second in the Central Division, 4.5 games behind the Bucks. On the season, the team enters this one holding the sixth spot in the Eastern Conference playoff picture. Indiana trailed by three after the opening quarter and held a narrow one-point lead after three quarters. The Pacers were down 96-95 with 2:44 to play in the game before closing the game on a 12-4 run to earn the victory. Indiana shot 48.3 percent from the field, including nine of 24 from three-point range, and held a slim 39-37 edge on the glass. T.J. Warren led the Pacers with 24 points in the victory.

The Pacers enter this contest 16th in scoring offense with 109.9 points per game on the season. Indiana is 19th in the league in rebounding with 44.7 boards per contest and stand tied for 11th with 24.8 assists per game. The Pacers are 6th in the league in scoring defense as they allow 104.4 points per game this season. Malcolm Brogdon leads the team with 18.9 points, 4.9 rebounds plus 7.9 assists per game this season. Domantas Sabonis (18.4 points, 13 rebounds), Myles Turner (12.2 points, 5.8 rebounds, 2.2 blocks), T.J. Warren (18 points) and Jeremy Lamb (16.6 points) are all contributing on the offensive end. The Pacers still miss Victor Oladipo, who is on the comeback trail after last season’s knee injury: he has been practicing with the Fort Wayne Mad Ants of the G League. Indiana is tied for 4th in the league in field goal percentage as the team shoots 47.4 percent from the field this season. The Pacers are 28th in threes made per game as they have drained 9.7 triples a night while the team stands 8th in three-point shooting by hitting 36.7 percent from beyond the arc.

Detroit Pistons Look to Regroup

Detroit saw their first multiple-game win streak go by the wayside as they were trounced by Milwaukee in their last game. The Pistons entered Thursday tied for third in the Central Division, 11 games behind the Bucks. For the year, Detroit went into that game tied for 10th in the Eastern Conference, 2.5 games behind Orlando for the final playoff spot. The Pistons led by two after the opening quarter before getting outscored 37-24 in the second to trail by 11 at the half. Detroit was unable to get any closer than eight in the second half as the Bucks piled it on in the final quarter. The Pistons shot 41.9 percent from the field, including 11 of 36 from three-point range, and lost the rebounding battle 55-40. Andre Drummond led the Pistons with 23 points, 14 rebounds, five assists, two steals and three blocks in the loss.

The Pistons enter this contest 19th in the league in scoring offense with 108.2 points per game on the season. Detroit stands 25th in rebounding with 42.7 boards per contest and tied for 9th with 25.1 assists per game. The Pistons are just above the middle of the pack in scoring defense, ranking 14th by allowing 108.7 points per game. Andre Drummond is second on the team with 17.3 points, 16.8 rebounds, 1.7 steals and two blocks per game. Derrick Rose contributes 15.9 points plus 5.8 assists a night while Luke Kennard chips in 16.9 points per game. Blake Griffin has averaged 18.8 points plus 5.2 boards a contest since returning to the lineup. Markieff Morris adds 10.4 points plus 3.7 rebounds a night while Langston Galloway has chipped in 12.6 points a night. Detroit is 6th in the league in field goal percentage as they hit 47.3 percent from the floor as a team on the year. The Pistons are 12th in threes made per game with 12.5 per contest and stand first in three-point shooting as they connect on 39.5 percent of their shooting from beyond the arc. Reggie Jackson has been out with a back injury: it was diagnosed as a stress reaction on November 2 and he remains out with no clear timetable for return at this point. He’s due to be re-evaluated in two weeks.

Best Bets for this Game

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These two division rivals close out their season series already with four months to go in the regular season. Detroit has been better at home than they’ve been on the road this season and one of their home victories came against Indiana. The Pacers are playing solid basketball as they try to keep pace with the scorching Bucks. Indiana is getting up to full speed health-wise while Detroit is missing Jackson and could be minus Kennard, who is battling a knee injury. Taking away two important pieces from the rotation is too much for a team like Detroit to handle. Give the Pacers the upper hand in this one.

Prediction: Indiana Pacers -3

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Indiana has relied heavily on their defense this season and its paid dividends as they've worked through injuries to several key rotation members. Turner, Sabonis and Brogdon have all missed time this season but the Pacers have rolled on anyway. Indiana has put up 109.7 ppg on the road this season while allowing 105.5 ppg, giving them a +4.2 ppg differential as the visiting team. That's not bad even though Indiana is just .500 on the road this season. Detroit has averaged 111.7 ppg at home this season while allowing 107.7 ppg this season. The Pistons are 6-5 at home: can they win the season series from the Pacers?

The under is 4-1 in the Pacers' last 5 games as a road favorite of 0.5-4.5, 4-1 in their last five on Friday and 7-2-1 in their last 10 as a favorite between 0.5 and 4.5 points. Detroit has seen the under go 7-1 in their last 8 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game and 4-1 in their last five as an underdog of 0.5 to 4.5 points. Given the way the Pacers play defense and the fact that Detroit is going to be battling fatigue with their third game in four nights, this one falls short of the number.

Prediction: Under

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Indiana comes into this contest with a +2.3 ppg differential in the opening half this season. That mark is tied for 11th in the league this season. On the flip side, the Pistons are tied for 20th in that department as they have been outscored by 0.6 points per game in the first half this season. Detroit is going to be feeling the fatigue of their third game in four nights and that will take a toll on them. Indiana's rotation depth allows them to keep a fresh group on the floor and gives them the edge at the half.

Prediction: Indiana Pacers

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Indiana puts up an average of 54.3 points per game in the first half this season, which is 20th in the league. The Pacers are tied for fifth in first half scoring defense by allowing 52 points per game. That's an average of 106.3 ppg in the first half on average for Indiana's games this season. Detroit is 11th in scoring with 56.2 points in the first half but stand 23rd in scoring defense by allowing 56.8 ppg in the first half of games. That's an average of 113 ppg in the average first half of the Pistons' games. Factoring in the fatigue factor, you have to think this is more a grind it out type of game that favors the Pacers and keeps this one under the mark.

Prediction: Under
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Written By Chris Kubala

Christopher Kubala has been crunching stats and following sports for over 30 years. His in-depth analysis and passion for sports have led him to writing books about sports, regularly being featured on sports talk radio and as the go-to person for any obscure trivia. Now he is writing for our team here at Winners @ Whiners. Chris keeps an eye on transactions and statistics like a hawk, especially when it comes to football, both the NFL and college. He is also very knowledgeable in the NHL, the NBA, college basketball and MLB. If you want consistency, then be sure and check out Chris’ content daily.