Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#517 Washington Wizards 234 vs.
#518 Miami Heat -9.5
Friday, December 6, 2019 at 8:05pm EST
American Airlines Arena, Miami
Written by Chris Kubala

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#517 Washington
#518 Miami
7-13
15-6
36-44-2
42-38-2
50-32
42-38-2
114
105
116
105

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It’s a battle of Southeast Division teams on the parquet floor down in South Beach. The Washington Wizards are on the road as they travel to face the Miami Heat Friday night. Washington earned a 119-113 home win over Philadelphia Thursday night in their previous contest. Miami was drilled 112-93 on the road by Boston in their last game Wednesday night. The Heat owns a commanding 84-41 advantage in the all-time regular season series and took three of the four matchups last season. In the last meeting, it was Miami prevailing 113-108 on the road on March 23, 2019.

Washington Wizards Seeking Back to Back Wins

Washington snapped a three-game skid as they took down Philadelphia at home in their previous contest. The Wizards, who are playing the second game of a back to back here, enter this one fourth in the Southeast Division, 7.5 games behind the Heat for the division lead. In the playoff picture, Washington stood tied for 10th in the Eastern Conference, 2.5 games behind the Magic. The Wizards trailed by eight after the opening quarter but outscored Philadelphia 40-22 in the second quarter to lead by 10 at the half. Washington didn’t see their lead drop below five in the second half en route to the win. The Wizards shot 45.6 percent from the field, including 11 of 27 from three-point range, and forced 21 Philadelphia turnovers. Rui Hachimura led Washington with 27 points and seven rebounds in the win.

The Wizards enter this contest third in the league in scoring offense as they put up an average of 118.9 points per game on the year. Washington is 28th in rebounding as they collect 41.8 boards per contest and are first by dishing out 28.4 assists per contest. The Wizards have been a sieve defensively, ranking 30th in the league in scoring defense by allowing 122.9 points per game. Bradley Beal leads the team with 28.7 points and 7.2 assists per game on the season. Isaiah Thomas puts up 12.6 points plus 5.1 assists a night while rookie Rui Hachimura adds 13.4 points and 5.6 boards a night. Davis Bertans (13.6 points), Thomas Bryant (13.9 points, 8.5 rebounds) and Moritz Wagner (12 points) are all averaging in double figures. The Wizards need more from Ish Smith, Isaac Bonga, Troy Brown Jr. and Jordan McRae in order for the team to have success. Washington is 3rd in the league in field goal percentage as they shoot 47.8 percent from the floor as a team on the year. The Wizards are 10th in the league in threes per game as they drain 12.9 triples a night while the team stands 6th in three-point shooting by hitting 37.1 percent of their attempts from beyond the arc.

Miami Heat Looking to Get Back on Track

Miami saw their three-game win streak snapped as they were clubbed on the road by Boston Wednesday night in their last contest. The Heat enters this game leading the Southeast Division by five games over the Magic. Miami led by eight after the opening quarter but things went downhill from there. The Heat trailed by eight at the half: they didn’t get closer than five the rest of the way. Miami trailed by 13 after three quarters and gave up a 7-0 run to start the fourth quarter, which put the game on ice. The Heat shot 43.6 percent from the field, including 14 of 38 from three-point range, and turned the ball over 19 times in the loss. Jimmy Butler led Miami with 37 points in the defeat.

The Heat enters this one 14th in the league in scoring offense with 111 points per game this season. Miami is 18th in the league in rebounding with 44.9 boards a contest while the team stands 10th in assists by dishing out 25 dimes a night. The Heat stands 8th in the league in scoring defense as they allow 105.7 points per game. Jimmy Butler leads the team with 20.1 points, six rebounds and 6.5 assists per game this season. Goran Dragic contributes 15.9 points, 3.2 rebounds and five assists per contest while Kendrick Nunn chips in 15.3 points a night. Justise Winslow adds 12.4 points, 7.1 rebounds and 4.6 assists per night. Bam Adebayo chips in 13.9 points, 10.3 rebounds plus four assists a game while Tyler Herro (13.6 points, 3.8 boards) and Duncan Robinson (11.2 points) are all putting together solid numbers so far this season. Miami is tied for 4th in the league in field goal percentage as they shoot 47.4 percent from the floor this season. The Heat stands 11th in threes per game by draining 12.8 triples per contest and the team is third in three-point shooting by hitting 38.8 percent from beyond the arc.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

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Washington is playing the second game of a back to back situation here as they prevailed at home on Thursday. That game is going to take a toll on the Wizards, who likely won’t generate 21 turnovers here like they did Thursday night. Miami was playing well before getting dropped on the road by Boston. Erik Spoelstra wasn’t with the team as he was with his wife, who gave birth to a child. Playing at home, where the Heat has been solid all year, you have to think that they can take down a Washington team with a leaky defense.

Prediction: Miami Heat -10.5

Full-Game Total Pick

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Washington continues to have major issues on the defensive end of the floor. When you give up 113 points and it's considered a decent performance, it shows the problems that the Wizards have at stopping teams. On the road this season, Washington has scored 117.1 ppg but they've given up a staggering 122.1 ppg while allowing opposing teams to shoot 49 percent from the floor. Those are some damning numbers and explain why the team is 3-8 as the visitor. Miami is unbeaten at home and puts up 118.8 ppg while shooting 51.4 percent from the floor. The Heat allows only 100.6 ppg in those games. Can the Wizards find a way to keep up in this one?

The over is 4-1 in the Wizards' last 5 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5, 6-2-1 in their last 9 games following an ATS win and 9-3-1 in their last 13 games as an underdog. Miami has seen the over go 4-0 in their last four after a straight up loss, 5-0 in their last five after a straight up loss by at least 10 points and 4-0-1 in their last five as a favorite. The over is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings in Miami and 16-5 in the last 21 meetings overall. Given the way Washington has failed on the defensive end, this one goes over the mark.

Prediction: Over

Half-Time Side Pick

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Miami has been rock solid in the first half of games this season. The Heat comes in seventh in the league in first half scoring and they are third in the league with a +4.1 ppg scoring differential in the opening 24 minutes. Milwaukee and Dallas are the only two teams ahead of them in that category. Washington is fourth in first half scoring but they are dead last in scoring defense in the opening half. That leaves the Wizards tied for 28th in scoring differential with a -7.1 ppg mark in the first half. Miami should take care of business and have the edge at halftime.

Prediction: Miami Heat

Half-Time Total Bet

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Miami puts up 57.3 ppg in the first half of games this season while allowing 53.2 ppg in the opening half. That puts the average Heat game at 110.5 ppg at halftime this season. Washington is terrific offensively as they crank out 59.3 ppg in the first half of their games but their leaky defense puts them in a hole. The Wizards allow 66.4 ppg in the first half, putting a typical halftime total for Washington around 125.7 ppg. This one seems poised to go over the number thanks to Washington's terrible defense.

Prediction: Over
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Written By Chris Kubala

Christopher Kubala has been crunching stats and following sports for over 30 years. His in-depth analysis and passion for sports have led him to writing books about sports, regularly being featured on sports talk radio and as the go-to person for any obscure trivia. Now he is writing for our team here at Winners @ Whiners. Chris keeps an eye on transactions and statistics like a hawk, especially when it comes to football, both the NFL and college. He is also very knowledgeable in the NHL, the NBA, college basketball and MLB. If you want consistency, then be sure and check out Chris’ content daily.