Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#529 New Orleans Pelicans 233 vs.
#530 Dallas Mavericks -9
Saturday, December 7, 2019 at 2:05pm EST
American Airlines Center, Dallas
Written by Chris Kubala

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W/L
ATS
O/U
PPG
OPPG
#529 New Orleans
#530 Dallas
6-16
15-6
38-43-1
46-34-2
44-37-1
37-44-1
115
108
116
110

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It’s a battle of Southwest Division teams on the floor down in the Lone Star State. The New Orleans Pelicans are on the road as they travel to face the Dallas Mavericks Saturday afternoon. New Orleans was upended 139-132 in overtime at home by the Suns Thursday night in their previous contest. Dallas knocked off Minnesota 121-114 at home in their last game on Wednesday night. The Mavericks own a 43-22 advantage in the all-time regular season series and have won both matchups this season. That includes a 118-97 road win in the most recent matchup Tuesday night.

New Orleans Pelicans Look to Snap Slide

New Orleans battled tooth and nail to the wire but ended up with the overtime loss to the Suns at home for a seventh straight defeat. The Pelicans enter this one in the basement of the Southwest Division, 9.5 games behind the Mavericks. New Orleans led by two after the opening quarter only to trail by four at the half and by 16 after three quarters. The Pelicans stormed back, outscoring the Suns 34-18 in the fourth quarter, in order to force overtime. In the extra session, New Orleans was tied with just over three minutes to play but was outscored 10-3 the rest of the way. The Pelicans shot 50.6 percent from the field, including 17 of 35 from three-point range, but turned the ball over 24 times while losing the rebounding battle 51-40. JJ Redick led New Orleans with 26 points in the defeat.

The Pelicans are seventh in the league in scoring offense as they average 114.5 points per game on the season. New Orleans is 18th in rebounding by collecting 44.7 boards a night while the team ranks 11th in assists by dishing out 24.9 dimes a night. The Pelicans are 29th in the league in scoring defense as they allow 119.7 points per game so far this year. Brandon Ingram leads the team in scoring with 25.2 points per game along with 7.2 rebounds and 4.1 assists this season. Josh Hart contributes 11.7 points plus 6.4 boards a night while Lonzo Ball (11.6 points, six assists), Jrue Holiday (19.5 points, 6.9 assists), Jahlil Okafor (9.5 points), JJ Redick (15.6 points), E’Twaun Moore and Derrick Favors (8.3 points, 8.9 rebounds) are key rotation pieces. Favors missed three straight games with knee soreness before returning against Brooklyn November 4 but has missed the last 10 games with a personal issue: he is out here as well. Zion Williamson remains out as he recovers from knee surgery: he is doing some on-court work. New Orleans is 15th in field goal percentage by shooting 45.4 percent from the field as a team this season. The Pelicans are second in the league in threes per game as they knock down 14.9 triples per contest and stand 4th in three-point shooting by hitting 37.9 percent from beyond the arc.

Dallas Mavericks Seek Fifth Straight Win

Dallas earned their fourth straight victory as they knocked off Minnesota at home in their last contest. The Mavericks entered Friday night with a one-game advantage on the Rockets in the Southwest Division race. Dallas led by five after the opening quarter, trailed by three at the half and was down four after three quarters. The Mavericks regrouped to outscore the Timberwolves 41-30 in the fourth quarter to get the win. Dallas took the lead for good with seven minutes to play and held Minnesota off the rest of the way. The Mavericks shot 50 percent from the field, including 11 of 37 from three-point range, and hit 18 of 23 at the free throw line. Dwight Powell led Dallas with 24 points in the win.

The Mavericks enter this contest fourth in the league in scoring offense with 118 points per game on the season. Dallas stands fifth in rebounding with 47.8 boards per game while they rank 14th in assists by dishing out 24.3 dimes per contest. The Mavericks are 15th in scoring defense as they allow an average of 109.4 points per game on the year. Luka Doncic leads the team with 30.3 points, 10.1 rebounds and 9.2 assists per contest this season. Kristaps Porzingis contributes 16.8 points plus 8.9 rebounds per game while Tim Hardaway Jr. (12.4 points) is also a solid contributor on the offensive end. Maxi Kleber (8.4 points), Seth Curry and Dwight Powell are key pieces in the Mavericks’ rotation. Dallas is tied for 10th in field goal percentage as they shoot 46.2 percent as a team from beyond the arc. The Mavericks are third by knocking down 14.6 three-pointers per contest on the year. Dallas stands tied for 12th in three-point shooting as they hit 36.1 percent from beyond the arc this season.

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New Orleans continues to have major problems on the defensive end of the floor and that’s a major reason for their struggles. The Pelicans have been good offensively and have battled through injuries. Perimeter shooting has been a strength for New Orleans this season, helping bolster their offensive production. The problem for the Pelicans is they are facing a hot Dallas team. Doncic has taken massive strides forward in year two and the addition of Porzingis makes them even more dangerous. Playing at home, you have to give the Mavericks the advantage, especially after winning a pair of games over New Orleans on the road already this season.

Prediction: Dallas Mavericks -9

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New Orleans has had major issues on the defensive end of the floor this season. The Pelicans have given up 121.7 ppg on the road this season while scoring 114 a night. That gives an average of 235.7 ppg in a normal road game for New Orleans this season. Dallas has hung 116.2 ppg at home this season, where they are 7-4. The Mavericks allow 107.9 ppg in those contests, giving an average of 224.1 ppg at home on the season. Will Dallas be able to beat the Pelicans for the third time this season?

The over is 7-3 in the Pelicans' last 10 games as a road underdog and 15-7 in their last 22 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. Dallas has seen the over go 4-0 in their last four as a home favorite, 11-2 in their last 13 against teams with a winning percentage below .400, 5-1 in their last six as a favorite and 4-1 in their last five at home. The teams have gone over the total in seven of their last nine meetings: with the Pelicans' leaky defense, the over comes in.

Prediction: Over 233

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Dallas comes into this contest with the second-best scoring differential in the opening half this season. The Mavericks' +5.3 ppg mark in the opening half of games this season is only surpassed by Milwaukee. On the other side, New Orleans stands 26th in that department with a -5.1 ppg mark this season in the first half of their games. It's going to be tough sledding for the Pelicans, who were lit up by the Suns Thursday night when Phoenix was playing the second game of a back to back. Give Dallas the upper hand at the half.

Prediction: Dallas Mavericks -5

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Dallas leads the league in first half scoring offense with an average of 60.3 ppg this season. The Mavericks are 17th in scoring defense by allowing 55 ppg: that gives an average of 115.3 ppg in the first half of their games. New Orleans is eighth in the league in scoring offense in the opening half with 57.3 ppg this season. The Pelicans are just 29th in scoring defense as they allow 62.4 ppg in the first half. Only Washington is worse than New Orleans in the opening half: their games see an average of 119.7 ppg this season. This one edges over the number thanks to Dallas' attack coupled with the Pelicans "defense."

Prediction: Over 119.5
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Written By Chris Kubala

Christopher Kubala has been crunching stats and following sports for over 30 years. His in-depth analysis and passion for sports have led him to writing books about sports, regularly being featured on sports talk radio and as the go-to person for any obscure trivia. Now he is writing for our team here at Winners @ Whiners. Chris keeps an eye on transactions and statistics like a hawk, especially when it comes to football, both the NFL and college. He is also very knowledgeable in the NHL, the NBA, college basketball and MLB. If you want consistency, then be sure and check out Chris’ content daily.