Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#1529 Houston Rockets vs.
#1530 Golden State Warriors
Saturday, April 10, 2021 at 10:05pm EDT
Oracle Arena, Oakland
Written by Nick Raffoul

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The Houston Rockets will head to the Chase Center on Saturday night for a Western Conference showdown versus the Golden State Warriors.

Golden State remains just one game ahead of the New Orleans Pelicans for the final play-in spot in the Western Conference playoff race. The Warriors enter in 10th place in the West with a 24-28 overall record after losing for the eighth time in 10 games on Friday.

Can Steph Curry and the Warriors bounce back on the second night of a back-to-back against the Rockets on Saturday?

Rockets poised for top lottery odds

The Rockets continued their free-fall down the Western Conference standings on Friday, losing for the sixth time in seven games with a 126-109 defeat versus the Los Angeles Clippers. Christian Woods finished with 23 points while Kelly Olynyk added 13 points and 11 rebounds for the Rockets, who were outscored 41 to 10 in a disastrous second quarter.

According to Tankathon.com, the Rockets are fairly secure in their quest for one of the NBA’s top draft picks. Houston owns the second-worst record in the NBA at 14-38, putting them three games ahead of the Orlando Magic, who sport the league’s fourth-worst record. Under the new lottery structure, the bottom-three teams in the league have equal odds at landing near the top of the NBA Draft. Each team will own a 14.0 percent chance to earn the No. 1 overall pick and 52.1 percent chance of landing a top-four selection.

According to dunksandthrees.com, Houston ranks 26th in the NBA with an adjusted net rating of -6.4. With all the moving pieces to this year’s roster, the Rockets have struggled to find consistency on both ends of the floor. As a result, they come in ranked near the bottom of the league in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Houston ranks 27th in the NBA with a 106.6 adjusted offensive rating and 24th in the league with an adjusted defensive rating of 113.0.

Warriors collapse late in loss versus Washington

Golden State suffered a disappointing 110-107 loss at home against the Washington Wizards on Friday night. Stephen Curry finished with 32 points and Kelly Oubre chipped in 23 points for the Warriors, who led by three points with under 20 seconds remaining but couldn’t hold on for the win.

Curry has been putting the Warriors’ offense on his back this season. He comes in second in the NBA in scoring at 29.7 points per game while shooting 47.9 percent from the field, 40.8 percent from beyond the arc, and 92.2 percent from the free-throw line. The Warriors have been using more high ball screens and pick-and-rolls in an effort to simplify their offensive scheme as they try to incorporate rookie center James Wiseman into the mix. The change has also paid off for Curry, who has scored at least 30 points in five straight games while averaging 35.6 points per game during that span.

According to dunksandthrees.com, the Warriors rank 21st in the NBA with an adjusted net rating of -1.5. They sport an adjusted offensive rating of 109.1, 23rd in the NBA, but have been much better defensively, ranking eighth in the league with an adjusted defensive rating of 110.6.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

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While the Rockets have been competitive as of late, they had played 11 of their last 16 games at home. Houston is coming off of an ugly effort on the road against the Clippers and will be up against a desperate Golden State team in this spot. The Warriors have not been playing their best basketball as of late but need a win to keep pace in the Western Conference playoff race. After a disappointing finish versus the Wizards, look for Curry and company to bounce back in this spot against a lowly Rockets team. Take Golden State to cover the number at home against Houston on Saturday night. 

Prediction: Golden State Warriors -9

Full-Game Total Pick

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These two teams are projected for 228 points but that number seems a bit low considering how poorly the Warriors have been playing as of late. Over their last 10 games, the Warriors have allowed at least 110 points eight times, which bodes well for the total here. Both teams play fast, ranking in the top-5 in overall pace so far this season, so this should turn into an up-and-down affair. Take the over with confidence in this Western Conference clash at the Chase Center on Saturday night.

Prediction: Over 228
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Written By Nick Raffoul , "Nick Raffoul"

Shortly after graduating with an Honors in Business Administration, Nick turned his attention from traditional stocks and bonds to investing in the performance of sports teams. And has now joined our team here at Winners & Whiners. Nick uses a combination of advanced stats and historical data to create sports investment models to identify value and generate consistent profits. Let Nick win for you.