Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#2523 Miami Heat vs.
#2524 Denver Nuggets
Wednesday, April 14, 2021 at 10:05pm EDT
Pepsi Center, Denver
Written by The Admiral

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Miami Heat (28-25) vs. Denver Nuggets (34-20)

The Miami Heat will be looking to extend their winning streak to three straight games when they take on the Denver Nuggets on Wednesday. Miami defeated Portland on Sunday, 107-98, their sixth win out of the last seven games. The Heat take on Phoenix on Tuesday, but this preview was written prior to the conclusion of that contest. Denver lost their second straight game, falling to Golden State on Monday, 116-107. Their two-game losing streak comes on the heels of an eight-game winning streak.

Denver is favored by 4.0-points in this game. Denver won the most recent contest between these teams, crushing Miami back on January 27, 109-82. The Nuggets are 6-4 and the last 10 meetings.

Trail Blazers Rally Falls Short

Portland was able to cut an 18-point deficit down to single digits but still fell to Miami, 107-98. The Heat were led by Bam Adebayo who scored 22 points, hitting nine of 14 shots. Jimmy Butler scored 20 on seven of 13 shooting and added five assists. The Heat shot 49.4% from the field but were only 13 of 20 from the foul line.

Miami is averaging 106.6 ppg while allowing 107.2 points per contest, third-best in the NBA. They are shooting 46.1% from the field and 34.8% from the three-point range. The Heat are 11th in free-throw percentage at 78.6%.

Butler leads Miami in scoring at 21.5 ppg and is averaging 7.3 rebounds and 7.1 assists per contest. Adebayo is second in scoring at 19.1 points per game and is first in rebounds at 9.4 per contest. Victor Oladipo (12.0 ppg) listed as questionable for Wednesday’s game.

Nuggets Fall to Warriors, Lose Murray

Denver lost to Golden State on Monday, 116-107, but the loss was even bigger as star point guard Jamal Murray went down and was lost for the season due to an ACL injury. Nikola Jokic recorded a double-double with 27 points and 12 rebounds and came two assists short of a triple-double. Michael Porter recorded 24 points and nine rebounds. The Nuggets shot 47.0% from the field.

Denver is sixth in points per game at 114.9 and ninth in points allowed per contest at 110.1. They are third in field-goal percentage at 48.8% and fifth in three-point percentage at 38.5%. The team is ninth in free-throw percentage at 78.9%.

Jokic leads the team in scoring at 26.2 ppg and is the leader in rebounds (10.9) and assists (8.8). Porter is third on the team in scoring at 17.3 points per contest and is averaging 7.8 rebounds per game.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

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Because Miami is playing on Tuesday, the inclination is to go with Denver, but the loss of Murray is a huge one. He is not only second on the team in scoring, but is one of the best point guards in the league. The psychological impact of his loss negates any concern I have about the fatigue factor for the Heat.

In a game like this, it is often the case that a team will try to be more defensive in their game, slowing the contest down. The Nuggets are a great defensive club, but Miami is even better. For that reason, I will gladly take the Heat and the points.

Prediction: Take Miami and take the points (+4.0) (-110)

Full-Game Total Pick

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The total is set at 213.5. These are two very good defensive clubs and one of those teams just lost arguably their best player. I expect a low-scoring affair as a result r. The question is, will it be as low as 214 points? I will admit, that is not very many points.

Traditionally, these teams have gone under. They have gone under in four of the last five meetings in Denver and have gone under in four of the last five overall but under 214?

In the last five games, Miami has gone over 107 points and has gone over 110 in four of the last five. Even without Murray, Denver is a team that should be able to produce at least 105 points. So, I will take the over here.

Miami wins, 107-105

Prediction: Go over 213.5 (-110)
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Written By Admir Aljic , "The Admiral"

You want someone to show you how to make some money, then talk to the Admiral, because he is your man. He has been handicapping for many years, so the Admiral knows a thing or two on how to beat the spread and get your pockets loaded with cash. The Admiral has brought his talents to StatSalt & Winners & Whiners and will always find the best pick for you.