Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets Prediction and Picks - May 9, 2025

Author: Mark Ruelle Last Updated: May 9, 2025 Game Start: 10:00pm EST

In this Thunder at Nuggets prediction, the series shifts to Denver with the two teams knotted at a game apiece. After the Nuggets pulled out a last-second win in game one in OKC, the Thunder rebounded with a dominant win in game two. Read on for more in this Thunder/Nuggets prediction and get our top NBA predictions to increase your bankroll!

OKC looks to carry momentum into Denver

Reports of the top-seed Oklahoma City Thunder’s demise were greatly exaggerated. The Thunder, after dropping a deflating 121-119 last-second loss in game one, dominated game two from start to finish in a 149-106 victory. The Thunder scored an NBA playoff record 87 points at the half and never looked back. MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the way with 34 points before sitting out the entire fourth quarter in the dominant win. He went 11-of-13 from the field, 11-of-11 from the free-throw line, and had eight assists while leading eight Thunder players in double figures.

“He made them pay when they overhelped on him," head coach Mark Daigneault said. "He had the ball ahead of them all night, so he got his teammates shots, too. It wasn’t just a one-man show. He was super efficient. I mean, he had an unbelievable blend tonight.”

The Thunder turned in one of the more impressive offensive performances in NBA Playoff history on Wednesday night. Not only did they score a record 87 points at the half, but the Thunder also shot 56 percent from the field for the game. The hot shooting was a vast improvement from the team’s 42 percent shooting in game one. The Thunder got after it defensively as well. They held Denver to 38 percent shooting in the game and also forced 21 turnovers. In the first two games of the series, the Thunder have forced 41 turnovers from the Nuggets.

 

Key Injuries: No Injuries to Report.

Nuggets try to rebound from humbling loss

After stealing home-court advantage away in a thrilling last-second win in game one, the Nuggets came crashing back down to earth in game two, suffering a humbling 149-106 loss to the top-seeded Thunder. Denver was dominated from start to finish, including letting up an NBA playoff record 87 points by halftime, and now finds themselves searching for answers heading into game two. All the Nuggets players struggled to find their form in game two, including the team's star. Nikola Jokic’s effort mirrored that of his team as a whole. After scoring 44 points in the first game, Jokic scored just 17 in game two before fouling out in the third quarter.

“Basically it was one team playing tonight,” Denver center Nikola Jokic said.

After holding the Thunder to 42 percent shooting in the first game, the wheels fell off the Nuggets' defensive wagon in game two. They allowed an NBA Playoff record 87 points at the half while allowing the Thunder to shoot 56 percent from the floor overall. The Nuggets also lost their decided edge on the glass that they enjoyed in game one. After outrebounding OKC by 20 in game one, they were outrebounded by six in game two. The Nuggets’ turnover woes continued as well. With their 21 turnovers in game two, the Nuggets have turned the ball over 41 times in two games. They also shot just 38 percent from the floor in game two after hitting on 44 percent of their shots in the 121-119 game one win. The Nuggets have to hope that they’ll find their shooting stroke again at home and that the team can do a better job protecting the basketball. 

 

Key Injuries: No Injuries to Report.

Best Bets for Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets

Full-Game Side Bet

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The two teams have split the six games played between them this season, but have won their games in decidedly differing fashion. The Nuggets have won their three games by a combined 17 points, including two games won by just two points each. The Thunder, however, have won their three games by a combined 82 points, including the 43-point drubbing in game two. If the Thunder are at their best, they are the superior team. They have more depth, they are a better defensive team, and they can throw multiple bodies at Nuggets' superstar Nikola Jokic. For the Nuggets to win, they'll need dominating performances from Jokic and at least one of his teammates. They have a much lighter bench and much less margin for error in this series. The wake-up call was game one of the series. Don't expect to see a similar letdown going forward from a Thunder team determined to get to the Finals this year, their second straight as the #1 seed in the Western Conference.

Take the Thunder -4.5

Prediction: Thunder -4.5

Full-Game Total Pick

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The total is jumping up yet again for these two teams. The two teams are the top five in the NBA in scoring this season and in field goal percentage. That has carried over in the playoffs, particularly in this series. They have combined for just under 500 total points in the first two games of the series. The Thunder have scored 268 points in games one and two, and the Nuggets don't seem to have any answers for them. The Nuggets have scored a combined 230 points in games one and two. Don't expect an offensive letdown in game three from either team.

Take the over.

Prediction: Over 233.5
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Author Profile

Mark Ruelle , "Mark Ruelle"

Mark has been a sports fanatic since childhood. He is also an avid follower of sports analytics and has used it in his own betting analysis for over two decades. Now we have Mark on our team here at RakeTech U.S. He holds degrees in marketing, broadcasting, and English and uses this vast array of assets to dissect and analyze game matchups. Mark will provide you with a wide variety of statistics to consider and a strong opinion in each matchup that he covers. Please follow him daily for an up-to-the-minute analysis of all the important games.