Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#529 Golden State Warriors 211.5 vs.
#530 Toronto Raptors -1
Monday, June 10, 2019 at 9:07pm EDT
Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Written by Chris Altruda

Stats

Back

Teams
Logo
W/L
ATS
O/U
PPG
OPPG
#529 Golden State
#530 Toronto
70-32
73-31
43-57-2
51-51-2
50-51-1
53-48-3
117
112
111
106

More

This article covers a past game!

View upcoming games.

Golden State Warriors at Toronto Raptors

When and Where: Monday, June 10, Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, Ont., 9:07 p.m. EDT.

Toronto leads series 3-1.

UPDATES 6/10 @ 3 p.m. CDT with player prop picks

There have been many challenges to the Golden State Warriors during their five seasons atop the National Basketball Association, but none have required the grit and determination the present situation now presents.

The Warriors hope the expected return of All-Star forward Kevin Durant on Monday night will help them begin the process of overturning a 3-1 series deficit as they try to prevent the Toronto Raptors from winning their first NBA Finals title in franchise history in Game 5.

Keep this page bookmarked because there will be updates both Sunday and Monday with player quotes and both team and player prop bets courtesy Pointsbet.com!

Warriors with back to wall, hoping to have Durant but need more

The Warriors have been down 3-1 in a series during their five-season run of excellence, overturning that deficit against Durant and the Oklahoma City Thunder in the 2016 Western Conference finals before having the trick turned on them in the finals that year by LeBron James and the Cavaliers.

Durant joined Golden State after that NBA Finals loss and won back-to-back NBA Finals MVP awards in helping the Warriors lift the Larry O’Brien trophy the last two seasons. Without the injured All-Star forward, though, these are now desperate times in the Bay Area after Friday night’s 105-92 loss.

Durant’s strained calf has sidelined him into a fifth week, and the prospects of him returning appear to have improved. By Monday afternoon, the optimism in the Warriors camp improved further after he participated in the morning shootaround. Coach Steve Kerr told The Associated Press “He went through full shootaround and went back to get treatment. We’ll list him game-time decision, but it looked good and we’ll see where it all goes.”

Even with the return of Durant, who averaged 34.2 points on 51.3 percent shooting in 11 playoff games before suffering the injury in Game 5 of the conference semifinals versus Houston, it is clear Golden State needs more than just the two-time NBA Finals MVP to first send the series back to the Bay Area let alone pull off a historic comeback.

“It’s not a good feeling right now, obviously, but like you said, we have been on both sides of it,” Stephen Curry said after Friday night’s loss about taking positives having already overturned a 3-1 series deficit. “And for us it’s an opportunity for us to just flip this whole series on its head, and you got to do it one game at a time.

“… In our locker room we’re talking about believing, everybody out there believe that we can get this done. We got to — we can draw on those experiences that we had back in the day and see what happens.”

Klay Thompson, who sat out the Game 3 loss with a strained hamstring, returned with plenty of bounce and no rust as he finished with 28 points and shot 6 of 10 from 3-point range. Curry’s 27 came with far more effort and less efficiency as the All-Star guard was 9 for 22 overall.

While it is easy to define how much Durant’s offense has been missed in this series as Golden State has lacked a consistent third scorer, the Warriors have struggled defensively throughout this series because Toronto’s bigs have been adept at running the pick-and-roll against DeMarcus Cousins and Andrew Bogut in addition to Draymond Green at the “5” when they go to a smaller lineup.

Serge Ibaka, in particular, gave the Warriors fits as he built on the momentum of his excellent second half in Game 3 to provide 20 points off the bench on 9-of-12 shooting.

“He just got it going, and they did a good job in the second half of moving the ball and finding the open man,” Warriors coach Steve Kerr said about Ibaka. “They hit eight threes in the second half after we did a good job on them in the first, and so the ball started moving and they found Serge in the pockets and in the middle of the paint several times, and he had a great game.”

Kevon Looney was part of Golden State’s struggles, but considering the Warriors big man had previously been ruled out of the series due to a collarbone injury suffered in Game 2, his contributions of 10 points and six rebounds in just over 20 minutes were an unexpected bonus.

Golden State’s bid to become just the second team in NBA Finals history to overcome a 3-1 deficit is a daunting one as there have been only 11 instances in NBA postseason history. And of those 11, only three teams — the 1968 Boston Celtics, the 1995 Houston Rockets, and the 2016 Cleveland Cavaliers — were able to do it winning Games 5 and 7 on the road.

Raptors poised to set off celebrations throughout Toronto and Canada

The Raptors have given themselves three chances to close out this series for their first NBA title in franchise history after their sweep of the Warriors in Oakland.

For all the talk of how Toronto lacked much championship experience, what has been provided by Ibaka, now NBA Finals MVP frontrunner Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green has been immeasurable in terms of poise and purpose in getting this team to the brink of a title.

“We didn’t do nothing yet. We haven’t done anything,” point guard Kyle Lowry insisted Sunday. “We still got to get one more win. It’s the first to four. You got champions coming in here and they’re going to play their butts off and play extremely hard. For me, we still got to focus on us and take it one possession at a time.”

Leonard — who recorded his third straight 30-point game and 15th overall in this postseason after finishing with 36 points and 12 rebounds — essentially saved the Raptors in the first quarter.  He scored 14 of the team’s 17 points as his teammates were a combined 1 for 13. He had another 17 in the third quarter, including eight in the final 2:17 during a game-altering 12-4 run that gave Toronto a 12-point lead heading into the final period.

“He’s a real professional. I’ve stated this before: When I speak in the meetings and when I speak in a film session or when I speak in a huddle, he’s always looking at me and a lot of times he’s nodding his head,” Nurse said of Leonard on Sunday. “I’ve always said for a rookie head coach, that makes you feel okay, right, when a guy like him is actually looking and sometimes agreeing with what you’re saying.

“As far as developing a relationship, he’s about business. He puts in a workday that’s incredible from all facets of getting himself ready to play. I’m pretty much a non-BS guy. We talk basketball, talk how he feels health-wise and keep it pretty simple.”

Nurse also found an interesting “big unit” combination of Ibaka, Marc Gasol, and Pascal Siakam to counteract when Golden State went small to try and wind up the pace. The passing of Ibaka and Gasol within the pick-and-roll offense created plenty of open looks and also helped prevent Golden State’s defense from shutting down Siakam, who scored 13 of his 19 points in the second half after a rough start.

“We put a lot of work and we believe in us, but one of the good things about us is our toughness, mind toughness,” Ibaka noted. “We be getting better and better each round, first round, second round, third round, and now we are here.

“…We always try to be ready, even the guys who don’t play, they come out there, put in work. Even myself and Marc. When you play less minutes, you come the next day, you come the next day, you put in work. So I think that’s one of the things about us. Also you see each night it’s different guys, so you always try to be ready.”

The Raptors were fortunate there was nothing more than a cut to the face of guard Fred VanVleet, who needed seven stitches following an inadvertent elbow from Shaun Livingston as he  followed through his shot in the paint.

VanVleet, who has been a key component for the Raptors in hounding Curry at every turn on the defensive end, had eight points and six assists and has averaged 13.8 points in the finals.

Toronto, which had a six-game playoff home winning streak snapped in the Game 2 loss, is 9-3 overall at Scotiabank Arena this postseason. The Raptors are also 3-1 in playoff closeout games this season, eliminating both Orlando and Philadelphia at home in the first two rounds before taking out Milwaukee in their first chance in Game 6 of the conference finals.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

Insiders Status:

Rating:

It has come to the point that the focus of this series should turn away from Durant — though acknowledging his absence to this point is a contributing factor in Golden State being down 3-1 — to the things Leonard and the Raptors are doing well that have gotten them to this point.

There has been a rolling, remorseless, and relentless nature about the Raptors in each progressive round. The turning point came when Leonard’s jumper needed every last piece of the rim to beat Philadelphia in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference semifinals, but Toronto has also adapted and evolved in the last two rounds.

Leonard has been at the forefront in doing everything — and more — asked of him, most notably his flawless timing in knowing when it is time to take over the Raptors offense and take the game to the Warriors defense. His 30-point games are not haymaker-like performances, but rather those of a boxer who piles up points with his jab and then unleashes a pair of crippling body shots.

That is what those two 3-pointers were at the start of the second half in Game 4. That third quarter was supposed to be about the championship poise of the two-time defending NBA champion Golden State Warriors, who had played arguably their best defense of the postseason in the first half but had taken only a four-point into the locker room.

The Warriors’ third quarters have taken on a near-mythical status in the NBA, and with good reason — evidenced by their 18-0 run in Game 2 that fueled their lone win to this point in the series.

One could even argue that 5:30 scoreless stretch is the only thing between the Raptors and a sweep of these NBA Finals. Puncturing that aura may prove to be more important to the Raptors than dealing with the return of Durant.

About the lone point of contention about the Raptors through four games is a failure to stop the silly reach-in fouls that put the Warriors on the line. And even that was mitigated to a degree Friday night when Toronto outscored Golden State 21-14 in free throws.

Offensively, the Raptors have not strayed from what works when it does work. That includes Leonard putting Alfonzo McKinnie on the rack every time the former Raptor and second-year pro is guarding him. It includes Lowry and other guards running the high pick-and-roll. It also includes Lowry’s decision-making in balancing facilitating the offense versus scoring in the offense.

Those have all been keys in keeping the Warriors off-balance for most of this series and needs to happen for them to close out this series.

There may be some nerves early as the reality of the situation dawns upon the Raptors, the “Oh (wow), we can actually win this series tonight!!” nerves, but with each successive win, one gets the sense of inevitability with this team. Some of that can be chalked up to the Warriors not having Durant, but more of it can be attributed to the Raptors playing championship-caliber basketball that will be rewarded with the Larry O’Brien trophy late Monday night.

Prediction: Raptors -1.5

Full-Game Total Pick

Insiders Status:

Rating:

Since Kerr took over the Warriors in 2014, they have been held under 100 points in back-to-back playoff games just four times, and Golden State has gone over the century mark in 85 of its 103 postseason games in that stretch.

Durant’s expected return adds to the belief there is too much championship mettle, pride, competitive drive, fill in the attribute of choice on this team to believe it will not end without the Warriors going out on their shield. That means Curry and Thompson will be gunning to the end and Draymond Green will be a whirling dervish at least one more time.

The over should hit comfortably in this one and extend its run to seven in head-to-head matchups between these teams north of the border.

Prediction: OVER 214.5 points (-105)

Full-Game Prop Bet

Insiders Status:

Rating:

Even before the announcement Durant is expected to play, the belief is the Warriors would turn this game into a more up-tempo affair with the series schedule having gone back to its customary two days off between games. Golden State has scored at least 108 points in all 10 of its playoff road games and in 12 straight dating back to its last two NBA Finals games in Cleveland last year.

As always, the other half of this section covers three player prop picks from each team courtesy lines from PointsBet.com. The one with the most intrigue naturally revolves around Durant, who was given an over/under of 23.5 points at -115. This feels like too big an ask for the All-Star given it is his first live game in 33 days and also with so much at stake. Additionally, the Warriors have players who can score the ball — Durant’s impact could very well wind up being more noticeable defensively.

Golden State — Durant UNDER 23.5 points (-115); Thompson OVER 19.5 points (-122); Green OVER 9.5 rebounds (-129).

Toronto — Leonard OVER 44.5 points+assists+rebounds (-115); Siakam UNDER 18.5 points (-118); Lowry OVER 6.5 assists (Even).

Prediction: Warriors OVER 106.5 points (-115)

Half-Time Side Pick

Insiders Status:

Rating:

The story of this series has been about the Raptors being able to absorb and adapt. There is confidence in them delivering a strong first half in front of their fans to offset Durant’s return and take a slim lead into the locker room. Given how poorly they played in the first half of Game 4 and nearly pulled out a victory with the spread, there is belief they can deliver here.

Prediction: Raptors -0.5 points (-115)

Half-Time Total Bet

Insiders Status:

Rating:

This is a pick believing the 88-point first half of Game 4 was an exception rather than the norm after the teams were at 108 or higher in the first three games. Durant will be an early bellwether of the pace of this contest — if he is game-ready, this could be an up-and-down game and blow past the number easily.

Prediction: OVER 109 points (-110)

Half-Time Prop Prediction

Insiders Status:

Rating:

Continuing to be bullish on offensive execution, the hedge is the Warriors come out strong in this contest and look to get Durant involved early. They averaged 32.4 points in the first quarter of their five road games with him in the lineup, and the spread of nearly five points between the number here and that average is enough to take a flyer on Golden State.

Prediction: Warriors OVER 27.5 points 1st quarter (-115)
Loading...

Written By Chris Altruda

A 1994 graduate of Marquette University when they were known as the Warriors and Brooklyn native, Chris Altruda is based in Chicago. Prior to joining our team here at Winners & Whiner, he worked at three major U.S. wire services and also has prior experience in sports handicapping and daily fantasy roster building. Now that the Cubs have won a World Series, he holds out hope the Jets will win a Super Bowl before he dies. Follow Chris daily right here at W&W and on Twitter at @AlTruda73. You won’t be disappointed.