Oregon State vs. Oregon
NCAA Basketball: Saturday, January 14th, 10:30 pm EST
Line: Oregon -25.5
My pick to win the 2017 National Championship takes on Oregon State on Saturday night in Eugene. That’s right, I like the Oregon Ducks to win it all this year. Before you laugh, I picked Villanova several times last year on this very same site. After starting the season 2-2, the Ducks have rattled off 13 straight wins. They should make it 14 versus a Beaver team that is 0-4 in the Pac 12 and 4-13 overall.
After not being able to cover a game to start the season, the Ducks are now above .500 against the spread on the year. The Beavers are not as lucky, as they are 5-10 ATS for the year, and a meager 1-5 ATS on the road, where they will be on Saturday.
Oregon is on a roll
Oregon started off the Pac 12 season with a dramatic win over the undefeated UCLA Bruins and then backed it up with a convincing win over the undefeated USC Trojans. You could understand if they had a letdown after that, but that didn’t prove to be the case. They went on the road and beat Washington by 22 and Washington State by 19. That was Washington State’s first loss in the Pac 12 and it was a beatdown at home.
The Ducks are a very balanced team, but I think Dillon Brooks is their most important player. The junior forward is “only” averaging 13.8 points, three assists, and 2.8 rebounds, but whenever he plays well the Ducks win. He also hit the huge shot to give the Ducks the win over UCLA.
The O in Oregon State stands for 0-4
It’s been a pretty ugly start for the Beavers to the Pac 12 season, and it doesn’t expect to be any easier against the Ducks. They have started with four straight losses and none were particularly close. They opened with a seven point loss to USC which was their closest game. They have subsequently been beat by 13 to UCLA, 13 to Washington State, and by 26 by Washington.
They have trouble getting to 70 points and that’s not going to equate to too many wins in the Pac 12. Their best player is Tres Tinkle who has impressive averages of 20.2 points and 8.3 boards per game. Unfortunately, he shoots only 44% from the field and you’d expect better from a 6’8″ forward.
The Oregon State Beavers are:
- 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall.
- 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
The Oregon Ducks are:
- 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win.
- 24-9 ATS in their last 33 vs. Pacific-12.
- 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Saturday games.
C’mon is there even a doubt. This Ducks team is rolling right now and they are playing a Beaver team who has yet to win in conference. I think the Ducks break out to a 15-20 point half time lead and then just pour it on in the second half. This game won’t even be close to the number. Let’s take the Ducks in a rout.