The Baylor Bears (10-4, 2-1 Big 12) travel to Tempe to face the Arizona State Sun Devils (10-4, 1-2 Big 12) in a Big 12 conference matchup on Saturday, January 11, 2025, at 10:30 PM EST. Baylor is 0-3 on the road this season, and Arizona State is 5-0 at home.
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Check out our Baylor vs Arizona State prediction.
Baylor winless on the road
After losing to Iowa State 74-55 last Saturday, Baylor bounced back with a 68-4 home victory over Cincinnati. Norchad Omier led the Bears with 18 points and 10 rebounds in the victory. On the season Norchad Omier, leads the team with 15.7 ppg and 10.8 rebounds.
Baylor is 19th in the KenPom ratings, 13th on offense, and 47th on defense. Five Baylor players average double figures in points this season. Baylor rates 37th in scoring (82.9 ppg), 61st in three-pointers made per game (9.4), and 13th in offensive rebounds (12th). If there are any offensive weaknesses in the Bears, they could do a better job of getting to the free-throw line, ranking 297th with 16.9 attempts per game.
Against the spread, Baylor is 6-7. They have not yet won a road game this season, falling at Gonzaga, UConn, and Iowa State—each of those teams rates in the KenPom top 26th.
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Sun Devils looking to improve resume
The Sun Devils are 9-5 against the spread this season. They started the season 8-1 overall, with their first loss coming at Gonzaga 88-80 on November 10. Arizona State has since gone 2-3 in its last five games, losing to Florida and at BYU and Kansas in conference games. Arizona State won its only home conference game 81-61 over Colorado last Saturday.
Arizona State is 58th in the KenPom ratings, 34th in defensive ratings, and 98th in offense. Joson Sanon leads the team with 13.5 ppg, followed by Basjeer Jihad with 13.1 ppg. The Sun Devils are 66th in three-point percentage, 85th in made threes, and 181st averaging 75.4 ppg. On defense, Arizona State is 184th scoring 71.1 ppg.
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Best Bets for Baylor vs. Arizona State
Full-Game Side Bet
Insiders Status:
Although the competition has been tough, Baylor is winless on the road, with 0-2-1 mark against the spread in those games. Arizona State has also been battle-tested, rating 19th in the nation in strength of schedule, picking up quality home wins over Santa Clara, Grand Canyon, New Mexico, and Saint Mary's along the way. Winning conference games on the road are always tough, and I see the value in the home dog getting points.
Full-Game Total Pick
Insiders Status:
Arizona State is just 169th in offensive rating at home this season and will have a tough time putting up points quickly against a strong defensive Baylor team that is 267th in adjusted tempo. Baylor should also seen a drop in scoring in this game. On the road, Baylor is 88th in offensive rating, which, although impressive, is not as strong as what they have done at home. This is promising for Arizona State, as the Sun Devils are 22nd in defensive rating at home. I will side with the under in this one.
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