A marquee matchup of ranked SEC foes take the floor in search of a win as they collide on the parquet floor in the Magnolia State. The #6 Kentucky Wildcats are on the road as they travel to take on the #14 Mississippi State Bulldogs Saturday night. Kentucky was dropped 82-69 on the road by Georgia in their previous contest Tuesday night, losing outright as a 1.5-point favorite. Mississippi State picked up a 76-64 road win over Vanderbilt in their previous game Tuesday night, covering the line as a 2.5-point favorite. In the all-time series between the teams, the Wildcats own a commanding 103-21 advantage and have won the last four meetings. That includes a 91-89 road win in the most recent matchup February 27, 2024.
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Who will win this matchup? Read more about this Kentucky vs. Mississippi State prediction!
Kentucky Shooting to Bounce Back on the Road
Kentucky was flat after beating #6 Florida in overtime last Saturday as they were downed by Georgia on the road in their previous contest. The Wildcats tumbled to 12-3 overall and 1-1 in the SEC on the season with the defeat. Against Georgia, Kentucky scored the game’s first four points and were tied with 7:23 to play in the first half before things unraveled. The Wildcats gave up a 24-11 run the rest of the half to trail 47-34 at intermission. Kentucky climbed within five with 12:07 to play before giving up an 11-4 run to trail by 12 with 8:06 remaining. That proved to be their last gasp as they couldn’t make a push after that. The Wildcats shot 37.5% from the field, including six of 25 from three-point range, and lost the rebounding battle 41-34 in the game. Lamont Butler led Kentucky with 20 points in the loss.
The Wildcats are putting up an average of 88.8 points per game on the year, putting them 3rd in the nation in scoring offense on the season. Kentucky is pulling down 40.9 rebounds per contest (20th in the nation) while dishing out 18.4 assists (12th) per game. The Wildcats are 251st in the nation in scoring defense as they allow an average of 73.9 points a night. Otega Oweh leads the team with 15.7 points plus 3.9 rebounds per game this season. Lamont Butler (14.2 points, 3.1 rebounds, 4.3 assists), Koby Brea (12.3 points, 3.3 rebounds), Jaxson Robinson (11.6 points, four rebounds), Andrew Carr (11.1 points, 5.9 rebounds) and Amari Williams (9.9 points, 8.2 rebounds) all are solid secondary scoring options. Brandon Garrison, Ansley Almonor, Kerr Kriisa and Collin Chandler also log consistent minutes for Mark Pope. Kentucky shoots 48.1% from the floor as a team on the year, which is 53rd in the nation. The Wildcats connect on 9.8 three-pointers a game (42nd) while shooting 35.7% (92nd) from long range. Kentucky is above average at the charity stripe as they cash in 74.5% of their chances, putting them 94th in the nation.
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Bulldogs Looking to Add Signature Win to Resume
Mississippi State ran their win streak to eight games as they took care of business on the road against Vanderbilt in their previous contest. The Bulldogs improved to 14-1 overall on the year and stand 2-0 Iin the SEC as they take the floor here. Against Vanderbilt, Mississippi State trailed by two less than six minutes into the game before reeling off a 13-2 run to go up 23-14 with 9:50 remaining in the opening half. The Bulldogs expanded their advantage to 11 points at the half, pushed the margin to 22 in the second half and didn’t let the Commodores closer than five the rest of the way. Mississippi State shot 47.4% from the floor, including six of 16 from beyond the arc, and limited Vanderbilt to 37.5% shooting in the contest. RJ Melendez led the Bulldogs with 19 points and seven rebounds in the win.
The Bulldogs are 28th in the nation in scoring average with 83.5 points per game on the season. Mississippi State is 45th in rebounding by collecting 39.3 boards per contest and hands out 17.3 dimes per game, which is 28th in the nation. The Bulldogs have been solid on the defensive end, ranking 61st in scoring defense by allowing an average of 66.5 points per game. Josh Hubbard leads the team in scoring as he puts up 17.1 points plus 3.3 assists a night. KeShawn Murphy is a solid secondary option in the scoring department as he puts up 9.9 points plus 7.7 rebounds a night. Claudell Harris Jr. (11.1 points), Cameron Matthews, Riley Kugel (10.2 points), Kanye Clary, Shawn Jones Jr., RJ Melendez, Michael Nwoko, Gal Chol and Deliquan Warren are all looked at for solid minutes in coach Chris Jans’ rotation. Mississippi State is shooting 47.6% from the floor as a team on the year. The Bulldogs are knocking down 8.7 triples per game while shooting 34.2% from beyond the arc. Mississippi State has been below average at the free throw line this season, hitting 70.2% of their chances, leaving them 227th in the nation.
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Best Bets for Kentucky vs. Mississippi St
Full-Game Side Bet
Insiders Status:
We know that Kentucky is a dangerous team but they do the majority of their damage at the Rupp Arena. The Wildcats have averaged just 67.5 points in their two true road games this season, both losses. Kentucky does own neutral floor wins over Gonzaga and Duke while losing to Ohio State. We saw a massive drop in production against Georgia and they now have to deal with a stout Mississippi State squad. The Bulldogs have been solid on both ends of the floor this season and they have quality depth in their rotation. Mississippi State is 7-0 at home and just one of those games was decided by single digits. Kentucky battles but until we see better numbers on the road, you have to fade them accordingly. Take Mississippi State in this contest.
Full-Game Total Pick
Insiders Status:
We talked about how Kentucky can pile up points but their road numbers are far weaker as the visiting team. The Wildcats, in their three losses, scored 66 points at Clemson, 65 on a neutral floor against Ohio State and 69 against Georgia. Mississippi State is tough defensively, having allowed less than 70 points in five of their seven home games while one of their other two games saw 73 points on the board. The Bulldogs are 26th in defensive efficiency, 60th in effective field goal percentage defense (47.2%), 45th in forced turnover percentage (21.1%) and 64th in field goal percentage defense (40.6%) this season. With Kentucky’s issues on the road, you have to think that this one ends up short of the number.
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