San Diego State Aztecs (10-3) vs. New Mexico Lobos (13-3)
Another frenzy college hoops Saturday is here, bringing the marquee Mountain West Conference showdown between the San Diego State Aztecs and the New Mexico Lobos at The Pit in Albuquerque, NM, with the tip-off at 1:00 PM ET.
The Aztecs meet the Lobos for the first time in 2024-25. Last season, New Mexico went 2-1 SU and ATS against San Diego State. Will the Aztecs get revenge for a 68-61 loss in the 2024 MWC Championship Final? Read more about this San Diego State vs. New Mexico prediction.
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San Diego State just routed Air Force
The San Diego State Aztecs (3-1 Conf.) have won seven of their last eight games overall. After stopping a five-game winning streak with a 67-66 defeat to Utah State, Aztecs strung a couple of wins over Boise State 76-68 on the road and Air Force 67-38 at home.
SDSU dismantled Air Force last Wednesday, allowing 18 points in the final 31 minutes of the game. The Aztecs held the Falcons to 30.6% shooting from the field and forced them into 20 turnovers. However, SDSU made just 36.2% of its field goals (6-for-26 from deep), and senior guard Nick Boyd led the way with 16 points, five steals, and four rebounds.
Boyd tallies 13.2 points, 4.5 boards, and 3.5 assists per game, and sophomore guard Miles Byrd posts 13.3 points and 4.4 rebounds a night. The Aztecs are No. 31 in the NCAA NET Rankings. They score 109.6 points per 100 possessions (105th in the country) while yielding just 91.7 points in return (7th).
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New Mexico rides a six-game win streak
The New Mexico Lobos are undefeated since December 8 and an 89-83 home loss against New Mexico State. Last Tuesday, the Lobos improved to 5-0 in the conference play, covering a 7.5-point spread in a 61-53 road victory against Wyoming.
New Mexico held Wyoming to 32.2% shooting from the field. The Lobos made only 33.3% of their field goals (5-for-21 from downtown) but went 18-for-22 from the foul line. Junior guard Donovan Dent accounted for 22 points and six assists, and junior forward Filip Borovicanin added 16 points and 11 rebounds.
Dent leads the way for New Mexico with 19.3 points and 6.9 assists per game, while senior center Nelly Junior Joseph tallies 13.1 points and 10.1 rebounds per contest. The Lobos are No. 67 in the NCAA NET Rankings. They score 112.7 points per 100 possessions (58th in the nation) and allow 99.0 points in return (74th).
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Best Bets for San Diego State vs. New Mexico
Full-Game Side Bet
Insiders Status:
On paper, San Diego State is one of the best defensive teams in the country. The Aztecs rank seventh in opposing 2-point percentage (42.7%) and 14th in opposing 3-point percentage (28.4%). Their defense will be properly tested in this matchup, and the Lobos are arguably a better offensive unit than the Aztecs.Ā
We should see a tight battle down the stretch. I expect the Lobosā offense to make a difference. Donovan Dent has been outstanding thus far, while both Nelly Junior Joseph and Mustapha Amzil (13.7 PPG, 5.8 RPG) are great weapons in the paint.Ā
The Lobos love to attack the rim and get to the free-throw line as much as possible. They take good care of the ball and play solid defense, whereas the Aztecs struggle to execute their offense at a high level consistently.
Full-Game Total Pick
Insiders Status:
The Lobos play at a rapid pace, recording 74.2 possessions per 40 minutes (6th in the country). On the other side, the Aztecs register 66.3 possessions per 40 minutes (258th). San Diego State will try its best to slow things down while leaning on its stout defense, so I will take the under on the total.Ā
Five of the Aztecsā last six contests have seen 144 or fewer points on the scoreboard. The Lobos are capable of playing tough defense, too. They just held Wyoming to 53 points. Three of the Lobosā last five games have produced 149 or fewer points in total.Ā
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