The SEC continues through the early part of league play with a Saturday matchup between the Vanderbilt Commodores (13-2, 1-1 SEC) and the Missouri Tigers (12-3, 1-1 SEC). These teams met last season with Vanderbilt winning by seven on their home floor. Vandy is coming off a tough home loss against #14 Mississippi State, going down 76-64 as just 2.5-point home dogs. Missouri just grabbed a strong home win over LSU, winning 83-67 and covering the 7.5-point spread as favorites. Tipoff is set for 3:30 EST from Mizzou Arena in Columbia, Missouri and can be found on the SEC Network.
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Who gets their second league win? Read on to see our Vanderbilt vs. Missouri prediction.
Vanderbilt Splits Their First Two League Games
The Vanderbilt Commodores pulled off the rare combination of winning their first league game on the road, followed by losing their home opener. The levels of competition were different, as they beat LSU who is not as strong as they were in the past, then lost to Mississippi State who is 14th in the country. Vandy had won seven straight before the Miss State game, including wins over TCU and Virginia Tech. In the Mississippi State game, they were led by AJ Hoggard with 18 points in the loss.
Hoggard is their top playmaker, he came over to the Commodores after a long and successful career with Tom Izzo and Michigan State. Hoggard is a 6'4 senior guard getting 11.1 PPG and leads the team with 4.2 APG. Hoggard can shoot from the outside, but will still attack the basket as he only has 14 made threes on the season. Their top scorer is 6'1 junior guard Jason Edwards with 17.1 PPG, and he is also their top shooter with 30 made threes on 36.6% shooting from deep. He transferred over from North Texas where he averaged over 19.0 PPG last year. Their top scorer in the frontcourt is Devin McGlockton, he is a 6'7 junior forward contributing 11.2 PPG and 8.2 RPG on the inside.
Vanderbilt is currently ranked 50th overall out of 364 Division I teams according to KenPom. They are 34th in offensive efficiency and 79th in defensive efficiency. They play at a fast tempo, ranking 34th in the nation in pace of play.
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Tigers Get First League Win
The Missouri Tigers opened up league play with a tough trip, going on the road to take on #2 Auburn. They lost by 16, but were able to get back on track with a win as they hosted LSU and won by 16. Missouri is now 12-3 on the season, with all respectable losses as they went down to Memphis, Illinois and Auburn. The LSU game was their most recent matchup, they were led by Tamar Bates with 20 points and eight rebounds in the win.
Bates is tied for the team lead in scoring with 13.1 PPG, he is a 6'5 senior guard who can do a little bit of everything on the floor. He was a full-time starter for Missouri last season and had a season-high of 29 points when Missouri took down #1 Kansas earlier this season. The other player at the top of their scoring list is Mark Mitchell, the 6'9 junior who transferred in after two strong seasons at Duke, but may have wanted to leave to be the star of a team as Cooper Flagg was coming to town. Mitchell is getting 13.1 PPG and 4.6 RPG on the inside. Their top shooter is Caleb Grill, he is a 6'3 guard who leads the team with 26 made threes on 49,1% shooting from deep. Grill missed most of last season with an injury, and is now back to finish his career with the Tigers.
Missouri is ranked 41st overall according the KenPom. They are 26th in offensive efficiency and 70th in defensive efficiency. They play slower than Vanderbilt, ranking 153rd in pace of play.
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Best Bets for Vanderbilt vs. Missouri
Full-Game Side Bet
Insiders Status:
The correct side is going with the home team here in this game of evenly matched opponents. Analytically these teams are similar, but Missouri is slightly better on each side of the ball, Missouri is 26th in offensive efficiency, while Vanderbilt is 34th, and Missouri is 70th in defensive efficiency while Vanderbilt is 79th. These small differences will add up, especially for a Tigers team that plays with confidence on their home floor, they just beat LSU by 16 here in their last game. Missouri has a strong big man in Mitchell, a shooter in Grill, and a do-everything forward in Bates. They will be tough to match up with for Vanderbilt who relies mostly on perimeter players. Missouri will take this game on their home floor.
Take Missouri to win and cover.
Full-Game Total Pick
Insiders Status:
The trends and Missouri's style of play here favor the under. Missouri is the slower of the two teams, they rank 153rd in tempo and will look to slow this game down to play to their strengths. Missouri is tough inside, Mitchell is a true frontcourt player who can play bully ball around the rim, and Bates attacks the basket more than he settles for three. Missouri will use the clock to get the ball inside, which will limit possessions for Vanderbilt. Missouri has gone under in each of their last three games, powered by their defense which held LSU to 67 points last time out. Vanderbilt has gone under in their last four games, including their last game where they only scored 64 against Mississippi State.
Take the under.
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