The Cal Poly Mustangs will host the CSU Northridge Matadors in a Big West clash Saturday night from the Mott Athletics Center. The Matadors tallied an 84-83 road win against UC Riverside in their previous action, and the Mustangs are coming off a 65-56 road loss to Santa Barbara. Each team recorded a win on their home court in last year’s season-series.
CSU Northridge Records Road Win in Conference Opener
The CSU Northridge Matadors snapped a two game slide with an 84-83 road win against UC Riverside in their conference opener on Wednesday in a game that had the Matators favored by 1.5 points. The Matadors were able to sink 52% of their field goals, while holding UC Riverside to a 46% clip. Terrell Gomez was spectacular in the winning effort, accumulating 32 points on an 11 for 17 shooting performance. The sophomore guard has tallied a combined 55 points in his last two games, and he is up to 19.2 PPG on 48% shooting.
Matadors’ top scorer Lamine Diane is locked in, eclipsing the 20 point mark in three consecutive games which included 21 points in Wednesday’s triumph. The freshman forward has recorded nine double-doubles on the season, and he is averaging 24.1 PPG and 10.9 RPG.
— #BigWestMBB (@BigWestMBB) January 10, 2019
The Matadors are currently positioned down at 294th in the nation in Ken Pomeroy’s college basketball rankings. They possess a 2-5 road record on the season. The CSU Northridge offense has been their greatest asset, and they are averaging 78.2 points on the year, ranking them 85th in the country. The Matadors are allowing an average of 82.9 points, pegging them down at 344th overall.
Cal Poly Goes Cold in Big West Opener
The Cal Poly Mustangs opened Big West play with a 65-56 road loss to Santa Barbara on Wednesday in a contest that had the Mustangs labelled as 13 point underdogs. Cal Poly shot a weak 37.7% from the field, while holding Santa Barbara to a 40% clip. Mustangs’ top scorer Donovan Fields attempted a whopping 21 shots while converting on 7 of them for 19 points. The senior guard has scored a combined 36 points in his last two games, and he is currently averaging 16.1 PPG and 4.6 APG on the year.
Mark Crowe is locked in, scoring at least 13 points in four out of his last five games. The sophomore forward stands second in team scoring with 11.4 PPG on a stellar 55% efficiency from the field.
Head coach Joe Callero reacts to Cal Poly's Big West Conference opener at UC Santa Barbara on Wednesday: https://t.co/24H6OfSE9K
— Cal Poly Basketball (@calpolymbb) January 10, 2019
The Mustangs are currently pegged at 319th in the country in Ken Pomeroy’s college basketball rankings, and they feature a 3-1 record on their home court. Cal Poly has struggled to score with any consistency this season, and they are only averaging 65.6 points on the season, ranking them 325th in the country. They are allowing an average of 71.3 points, placing them 181st overall.
The Cal Poly Mustangs are:
- 5-21 ATS in their last 26 home games against a team with a losing road record.
- 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games following an ATS win.
- 15-40-2 ATS in their last 57 conference games.
The CSU Northridge Matadors are:
- 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games against Cal Poly.
- 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
- 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
I am siding with CSU Northridge in this matchup. Cal Poly is scuffling, dropping five out of their last six games with their only win in that span coming against a non-division I opponent, and they are averaging a measly 62.5 points in that six game span.
Furthermore, CSU Northridge is clicking in the offensive end, netting at least 81 points in five out of their last six games overall. I am not concerned with the Matadors shaky defense up against a Cal Poly squad that is struggling to score with any consistency.
Prediction: CSU Northridge
Full-Game Total Pick
The over is a solid play in this matchup. CSU Northridge has scored 90 and 84 points respectively in their last two games against Yale and UC Irvine, and the over is 16-5-1 in their last 22 games overall.
In addition, while I expect the Matadors to at least contain Cal Poly, the Matadors rank near the bottom of the country in many defensive categories including three-point defense, plus the over is 17-5 in the Mustangs’ last 22 home games.
Full-Game Prop Bet
I am going with the under on the Cal Poly team total. Cal Poly is only averaging 65 points on 42% shooting on the season, and they have only averaged 59.3 points in their last three games overall. Also, three of the Mustangs’ top four scorers are all shooting below 40% on the season.
Prediction: Cal Poly Team Total: Under
Half-Time Side Pick
I am siding with Cal Poly on the halftime line. CSU Northridge is struggling defensively in the first half where they are allowing an average of 37.9 points on the year, ranking them down at 304th in the nation, while Cal Poly is conceding an average of 34.7 points.
Prediction: Cal Poly