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UC Davis vs. Long Beach State Prediction,
Preview,
and Odds - 1-12-2019

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#755 UC Davis
Aggies 136
#756 Long Beach State
49ers -4

Saturday, January 12, 2019 at 7:00pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

UC Davis Aggies

4 - 11

4-8
ATS
4-8
O/U
63
PPG
68
OPPG

Long Beach State 49ers

6 - 10

7-6
ATS
7-7
O/U
74
PPG
76
OPPG

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A pair of Big West opponents take the floor as two schools from the Golden State square off in conference action. The UC Davis Aggies are on the road as they make the trip to face the Long Beach State 49ers Saturday night. UC Davis came up a 71-69 overtime loser on the road to UC Irvine Thursday night in their conference opener. Long Beach State destroyed Bethesda 124-52 at home in their last game last Saturday night. The 49ers lead the all-time series 17-6 but the Aggies won the last three meetings, including a 105-104 double overtime win on the road in the last matchup on February 3, 2018.

UC Davis Aggies Still in Search of First Road Win

UC Davis gave it all they had and left it all out on the floor but came up a bucket short in overtime against UC Irvine. The Aggies look to dust themselves off and try again to get that elusive first road win of the season. UC Davis trailed by nine at the half and by 16 with 14:58 to go before storming back to force overtime. In the extra session, the Aggies battled but came up empty on their final possession with a chance to force a second overtime or get the win when TJ Shorts II missed a three at the buzzer. UC Davis shot 41 percent from the field, including five of 16 from three point range, and missed 11 of their 25 free throw attempts. Shorts II led the Aggies with 22 points and 10 rebounds but missed five of eight free throw attempts.

The Aggies have struggled on the offensive end of the floor in the first two months of the season as they are averaging just 63.3 points per game. UC Davis is collecting 31.3 boards a night and dish out an average of 11.3 assists per contest. The Aggies are 114th in scoring defense by allowing 68.9 points a night. TJ Shorts II is one of only two players averaging in double figures with 14.7 points, 5.3 rebounds and 3.7 assists per game this season. Matt Neufeld, Stefan Gonzalez, Joe Mooney, Garrison Goode, A.J. John, Caleb Fuller and Silas Schneider (10.7 points) all have to step up offensively to help UC Davis. The Aggies are shooting only 42.3 percent from the field as a team on the year. UC Davis is hitting 6.3 triples a night while sinking a dismal 29.7 percent from beyond the arc. The Aggies have struggled at the charity stripe as they cash in 67.6 percent of their attempts this season.

Long Beach State 49ers Seeks to Open Conference Play on Positive Note

Long Beach State has had a week off to practice and prepare for their conference opener. The 49ers obliterated NCCAA program Bethesda in their last non-conference tune-up contest. Long Beach State led just 15-12 with 9:18 to play in the opening half before closing the half on a 38-13 run to go up 28. In the second half, the 49ers poured it on, outscoring the Flames 71-27 en route to the blowout. That was highlighted by a 20-0 to start the second half. Long Beach State shot a blistering 59.5 percent from the field, including 18 of 36 three point attempts, while winning the rebounding battle 53-35 and forcing 23 turnovers. Bryan Alberts poured in 35 points to lead the 49ers in the win.

The 49ers are averaging 74.6 points per game this season. Long Beach State collects 39.2 boards a night while dishing out 12.9 assists per contest. The 49ers are a dismal 279th in scoring defense as they allow 76.4 points a night. Deishaun Booker leads the team with 14.2 points plus 4.7 assists a night. Temidayo Yussuf is one of two other players in double figures as he puts up 12.9 points and 7.2 boards a night. Edon Maxhuni, Bryan Alberts (11.2 points), KJ Byers, Ron Freeman, Jordan Griffin, Jordan Roberts and Mason Riggins each put up at least 4.7 points a night. Long Beach State shoots 41.7 percent from the field as a team. The 49ers average 7.4 three pointers a game while shooting 35.5 percent from long range. Long Beach State shoots a mediocre 68.2 percent from the line as a team this season.

The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.

Full-Game Side Bet
Rating:

Both teams have had their struggles in the first two months of the season going into this contest. The difference in this one, quite simply, is the venue. While UC Davis has fallen just short in a couple of their road games, namely Arizona and UC Irvine, the fact remains that they lost those games. The Aggies are 0-8 on the road while the 49ers are 5-1 at home this season. That’s enough to swing the pendulum toward Long Beach State in this contest: give the points.

Prediction: Long Beach State 49ers -4.5

Full-Game Total Pick
Rating:

It will be interesting to see which style wins out in this contest. UC Davis has been a lockdown defensive unit all season long, though it hasn’t paid dividends in the win column. On the other side of the equation, you have a Long Beach State team that has no problem with trying to match teams bucket for bucket. The 49ers will try to push the tempo while UC Davis will look to slow it down to keep things at a snail’s pace. Which team gets things to their desired tempo in this one?

The under is 37-13-1 in the Aggies’ last 51 games following a straight up loss and 11-4 in their last 15 overall. Long Beach State has seen the under go 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400, 7-0 in their last 7 vs. Big West opponents and 5-1 in their last 6 vs. a team with a losing straight up record. Given the way that the Aggies slow teams down, this one likely falls just short of the number as Long Beach State is ground to a halt.

Prediction: Under 136

Chris Kubala

Christopher Kubala has been crunching stats and following sports for over 30 years. His in depth analysis and passion for sports have led him to writing books about sports, regularly being featured on sports talk radio and as the go-to person for any obscure trivia. He keeps an eye on transactions and statistics like a hawk, especially when it comes to football, both the NFL and college, the NHL, the NBA and college basketball and MLB.

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