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Youngstown State vs. IUPUI Prediction,
and Odds - 1-12-2019

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#631 Youngstown State
Penguins 149
#632 IUPUI
Jaguars -9.5

Saturday, January 12, 2019 at 1:00pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

Youngstown State Penguins

5 - 13


IUPUI Jaguars

10 - 7


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The Youngstown State Penguins will travel on the road to the Indiana Farmers Coliseum on Saturday afternoon as they prepare to take on the IUPUI Jaguars in their sixth Horizon League game of the season.

The Jaguars have rebounded following a slow start to Horizon League play. IUPUI lost its first two games of the conference season before winning back-to-back contests to even up their record at 2-2. Can IUPUI get over the .500-mark with a victory at home versus Youngstown State?

Penguins can’t get the job done vs. UIC

Youngstown State fell to 1-4 in Horizon League play on Thursday night, losing on the road to UIC 78-63. Jelani Simmons finished as the only Penguins player in double-figures on the night, scoring 18 points in a losing effort. The Penguins shot 10 of 24 from 3-point range, but hit only 10 of their 41 shots from inside the of arc to fall short on the road.

Jerrod Calhoun’s squad comes in ranked No. 302 in the country in the latest KenPom rankings and they have just three victories versus DI teams this season. Youngstown State is scoring 99.3 points per 100 possessions (242nd in the NCAA) and allowing 110.6 points per 100 possessions (321st in the NCAA) through their first 18 games. They sport an effective field goal percentage of 48.1 percent (263rd in the NCAA) and they have turned the ball over on 20.2 percent of their offensive possessions (244th in the NCAA) for the season. Instead, they’ve relied on crashing the offensive glass to generate points on the offensive end. They have hauled in 35.4 percent of their missed field goal attempts (26th in the NCAA) so far this year. While it hasn’t necessarily translated to wins, the Penguins have been much better offensively through five conference games, scoring 107.5 points per 100 possessions (5th in the Horizon League) and connecting on 40.6 percent of their 3-point attempts (1st in the Horizon League).

On defense, they are allowing opponents to sport an effective field goal percentage of 58.0 percent during conference play (10th in the Horizon League).

IUPUI evens up conference record

IUPUI improved to 2-2 in Horizon League play on Thursday night with a 90-74 victory at home against the Cleveland State Vikings. Elyjah Goss scored 16 points to lead six Jaguars in double-figures in a balanced scoring effort, while Ahmed Ismail, DJ McCall and Camron Justice all added 13 points apiece to propel IUPUI to the win.

Jason Gardner’s squad enters the weekend slotted at No. 186 in the latest KenPom rankings after getting out to a 10-7 overall record. The Jaguars are scoring 101.4 points per 100 possessions (205th in the NCAA) for the season and they sport an effective field goal percentage of only 49.9 percent (207th in the NCAA). IUPUI has struggled with turnovers during conference play, coughing up the basketball on a whopping 23.4 percent of their possessions in Horizon League play (10th in the Horizon League). However, they’ve managed to make up some points by crashing the offensive glass and getting to the free throw line at a high rate. Through four conference games, the Jaguars sport an offensive rebounding rate of 40.0 percent  (1st in the Horizon League) and a free throw rate of 38.3 percent (3rd in the Horizon League).

On defense, IUPUI ranks in the top-five in the Horizon League in several categories. They have limited opponents to 106.9 points per 100 possessions (5th in the Horizon League) and an effective field goal percentage of 51.8 percent (4th in the Horizon League).

The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.

Full-Game Side Bet

The Jaguars are 5-1-1 against the spread in their last seven home games and they’ve covered the spread in four of their last five matchups versus Horizon league opponents. IUPUI has only one loss at home this season and they should have no problems getting what they want on offense against this Penguins defense. Take the Jaguars to cover the spread at home on Saturday.

Prediction: Pick: IUPUI Jaguars -10

Full-Game Total Pick

The Penguins have been awful on the defensive end so far this season and they haven’t improved during conference play. Youngstown State ranks outside the top-300 in several defensive categories and IUPUI’s turnover problems should give the Penguins a few extra opportunities to put points on the board. Take this Horizon League showdown to of over the projected total on Saturday afternoon.

Prediction: Over 148.5

Nick Raffoul

Shortly after graduating with an Honors in Business Administration, Nick turned his attention from traditional stocks and bonds to investing in the performance of sports teams. He uses a combination of advanced stats and historical data to create sports investment models to identify value and generate consistent profits.


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