Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#627 VCU 138.5 vs.
#628 Dayton -8
Tuesday, January 14, 2020 at 8:00pm EST
Written by Adam Rauzino

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#627 Virginia Commonwealth University
#628 University of Dayton
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The #13 Dayton Flyers will host the VCU Rams in an A10 showdown Tuesday night from the University of Dayton Arena. The Rams were dealt a 65-56 home loss by Rhode Island on Saturday, and the Flyers earned a dominating 88-60 home win over UMass in their previous action. VCU beat Dayton in both meetings last season.

VCU Upset by Rhode Island in First A10 Defeat

The VCU Rams are seeking their third A10 victory of the season. They defeated Fordham and George Mason in their two opening conference battles and were stunned 65-56 by Rhode Island on their home court on Saturday in a game that had VCU labeled as 8.5 point favorites.

Marcus Santos-Silva continues to shine, netting two straight double-doubles including 11 points and 14 boards on Saturday. The junior forward now has five double-doubles on the season, and he has compiled an average of 13.1 PPG and 9 RPG. Marcus Evans is slumping, recording seven or fewer points in three out of his last four games. The senior guard is having issues with his accuracy and is logging 11.1 points on 38.4% shooting. De’Riante Jenkins is playing well, sinking at least 13 points in three out of his last four games. The senior guard stands third in team scoring with 10.8 PPG.

The Rams are ranked 47th in the country in Ken Pomeroy’s college basketball ratings, and own a 2-1 record in their three true road games. VCU is currently averaging 70.9 points, placing them 204th overall. They are a terrific defensive team that is holding opponents to 60.9 points, good for 28th in DI.

#13 Dayton Crushes UMASS, Toppin Injured

The #13 Dayton Flyers are aiming for their sixth consecutive victory. They have made easy work of their first three A10 opponents as well, winning all three games by double-digits in points highlighted by an 88-60 home win against UMass on Saturday to cover the 20 point spread. Dayton continues to pile on the points.

Flyers' star Obi Toppin exited Saturday’s game with an ankle injury after netting 16 points and is listed as probable. The sophomore forward is one of the best players in the A10 and has surpassed 20 points seven times. Toppin is averaging 19.3 PPG and 7.4 RPG. Jalen Crutcher has scored 12 or fewer points in three out of his last four games. The junior guard is now averaging 12.8 points on a 43% clip from the field. Ibi Watson is a big threat from three-point range where he features a sizzling 48% efficiency. The junior guard holds an average of 11.4 points on the season.

The Flyers have climbed two spots to #13 in the country in this week’s AP Top 25 rankings, and Ken Pomeroy has them 6th overall in his grades. They are 9-0 on their home court. Dayton is an offensive powerhouse that is now averaging 83.4 points, good for fifth in the country. They are allowing an average of 64.9 points, placing them 82nd in DI.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

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I expect another decisive home win from Dayton. The Flyers are an exciting team and lead all of Division I with a dazzling 52.4% team shooting percentage. Nobody has been able to contain this squad and they have scored at least 80 points in all three of their A10 games. They are winning easily as their three conference wins have all come by at least 13 points.

Furthermore, VCU is coming off a rough 65-56 home loss to Rhode Island. They do not have the offensive firepower to keep up with the Flyers. The Rams are shooting a poor 42.6% as a team and Dayton is also very effective defensively.

Prediction: Dayton Flyers

Full-Game Total Pick

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I am selecting the under in this game. Dayton should post solid numbers offensively, but VCU is going to have trouble. VCU plays at a slower pace and have only averaged 69.7 possessions in their last three games. Dayton is limiting opponents to 41.7% shooting from the field and as mentioned VCU is not a strong shooting team. The under is 4-1 in the Flyers’ last five home games.

In addition, Dayton does not play at a particularly fast pace which makes their offensive stats even more notable. Also, VCU is all about defense and they have allowed 65 or fewer points in four straight games. The under is 4-0 in the Rams’ last four games overall.

Prediction: Under

Full-Game Prop Bet

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The under on the VCU team total offered on PointsBet is a solid prop worth a look. Dayton receives accolades for their offense, however, they are also a stellar defensive team. They have allowed 60 or fewer points in four out of their last five games. VCU is inconsistent offensively and they will have trouble in this tough road atmosphere.

Prediction: VCU Team Total Under

Half-Time Side Pick

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I expect a solid lead at the half for Dayton. The Flyers stand third in the country with an average of 41.5 points in the opening half this season. Also, the Rams are only averaging 30 points on the road in the first half. Lastly, Dayton is tough to solve in the first half where they are holding opponents to 28.2 points this season.

Prediction: VCU
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Written By Adam Rauzino

Adam has been a sports fanatic his entire life, closely following hockey, baseball, basketball and football. Adam enjoys analyzing various stats, as well as studying Sabermetrics and analytics to take his picks to a whole new level. Adam has a passion for writing about various sports as well as personal finance and has brought his talents to us here at Winners and Whiners. He graduated with a diploma in business marketing and business finance.