For our Top Plays of the Day, check out our Deep-3:
LSU at No. 18 Ole Miss
When and Where: Tuesday, Jan. 15, The Pavilion, Oxford, Miss., 9 p.m. EST.
Seeking its first 4-0 start in Southeastern Conference play in six years, Ole Miss looks to continue its surprising turnaround under first-year coach Kermit Davis on Tuesday night when it hosts fellow conference unbeaten LSU.
Tigers look to run winning streak to six games
LSU (12-3, 2-0 SEC) still has not won many people over despite an impressive record, as two of its losses came at ranked opponents Florida State and Houston. The Tigers did hand then-No. 24 Furman its first loss but have not opened 3-0 in SEC play since 2005-06.
Break 👏 the 👏 press
— LSU Basketball (@LSUBasketball) January 13, 2019
LSU stretched its winning streak to five games with a 94-88 overtime win at Arkansas on Saturday. Naz Reid hit all four of his 3-pointers, went 10 for 12 overall, and scored 27 points while Tremont Waters added 17 and 11 assists as the Tigers hit 10 of 25 from beyond the arc and shot 51.6 percent overall.
“Everyone wants to talk about his points but how about the three charges he took,” LSU coach Will Wade gushed to his school’s official website. “He has been doing that stuff all year. Those were huge and he took two of the charges with four fouls. Those were huge, winning plays and we see those all the time in practice. Does it translate all the time to games? No.
“Yet, I was really proud of him because usually he gets fouls early on in the game and it throws off his game a little bit. He committed a foul on the first play of the game but he was able to shrug that off and play better.”
Reid, Waters and Skylar Mays lead a balanced LSU attack as Mays averages 13.3 points while Reid and Waters are right behind him at 13.2 per contest. Freshman Ja’Vonte Smart is also in double figures at 10.4 per game, and another four players are contributing between 6.7 and 8.6 per contest.
Wade, though, is concerned about turnovers. LSU has won both conference games despite committing 35 of them, and Wade noted “that won’t win for us” as he faces an Auburn team he feels “has the best backcourt in the league.”
LSU has lost three straight and six of its last seven road games versus ranked opponents, with Waters’ 3-pointer with 0.7 seconds giving the Tigers a 69-68 win at then-No. 11 Texas A&M on Jan. 6, 2018.
Rebels back in AP Top 25 for first time since 2013
Ole Miss (13-2, 3-0) is seeking its first 11-game winning streak since opening the 2007-08 season with 13 wins. The Rebels are ranked nationally for the first time in six seasons, with Davis turning things around in a much faster fashion than imagined after arriving from Middle Tennessee in the offseason.
— College Sports Now (@CSNowTweets) January 14, 2019
The Rebels come into this game on the heels of back-to-back victories over ranked opponents. Ole Miss followed up its 82-67 win over then-No. 11 Auburn with an 81-77 victory at then-No. 14 Mississippi State. Freshman Blake Hinson scored a season-high 26 points and went 5 for 11 from 3-point range as the Rebels hit a season-best 12 from beyond the arc.
“I was just kind of feeling it, and my teammates were looking for me too,” Hinson told the Jackson Clarion-Ledger. “In the huddles, every time I came into the huddle they told me to keep shooting it. They just kept feeding it to me. They would find me open so I was feeling it and they knew I was feeling it too.”
That backcourt Wade was referencing — Breein Tyree, Terence Davis, and Devontae Shuler — combined for 48 points for the Rebels. They are also the top three scorers for Ole Miss, with Tyree leading the way at 17.5 points per game, followed by Davis (15.7) and Shuler (10.6).
All three are shooting 40 percent or better from 3-point range, while Hinson is just off that standard at 39.7 percent. Ole Miss is shooting 38.2 percent from beyond the arc, good for second in the SEC, and is also second in overall shooting at 49.9 percent.
Ole Miss is 7-0 at home this season, averaging 85.7 points while outscoring opponents by 20.1 per game and shooting 43.4 percent from 3-point range. The Rebels have scored at least 75 points in every game and 82 in all but one of them.
Ole Miss is:
- 6-0 ATS in its last six home games.
- 21-7 ATS in its last 28 games following an ATS win.
- 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games following a straight up win.
- The under is 16-7 in its last 23 games vs. SEC opponents.
- The under is 4-1 in its last five home games.
- The under is 4-1 in its last five games following a straight up win.
- 2-8-3 ATS in its last 13 road games.
- 1-6-2 ATS in its last nine road games as an underdog between 0.5-6.5 points.
- 2-7-3 ATS in its last 12 road games vs. teams with an above-.500 home record.
- The under is 12-5 in its last 17 games vs. Ole Miss.
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
Everything is pointing in the Rebels’ favor, from its winning streak, to its shiny new national ranking, to having its top freshman Hinson proving himself capable of being able to take over offensively on top of a top-notch backcourt.
That guard play is going to wind up being the difference in this game, with forcing live-ball turnovers against an LSU team struggling to value the ball leading to easy points. This line has come down 1.5 points in favor of the Tigers, which adds to the confidence of this pick in taking Ole Miss.
Prediction: Pick: Ole Miss -3.5
Full-Game Total Pick
The hedge is that Ole Miss’ solid defense at home to date is extended another game here as LSU struggled offensively against another quality team with a three-guard alignment in Houston.
Prediction: Pick: UNDER 156 points
Half-Time Side Pick
This is a confidence pick in the Rebels, playing their first home game as a nationally ranked team. Ole Miss has led at halftime in six of its seven games and posted double-digit advantages after 20 minutes in five of them.
LSU has been ahead in four of its six games at road and neutral sites, but this is a matchup that appears to favor Ole Miss with its backcourt to neutralize the Tigers’ guard pairing of Mays and Waters.
Prediction: Pick: Ole Miss -2
Half-Time Total Bet
This is trying to thread the needle, but both teams have been at 71 points or higher in each of their last two SEC games. LSU has been at 79 or better in three of its last four road and neutral site games in the first half, while Ole Miss has been at 70 or better in its last five games at The Pavilion.
Prediction: Pick: OVER 73.5 points