Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#647 Arkansas State 147.5 vs.
#648 Coastal Carolina -8
Saturday, January 18, 2020 at 2:00pm EST
Written by Nick Raffoul

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#647 Arkansas St University
#648 Coastal Carolina University
12-7
11-8
12-5
8-8-1
8-8-1
10-6-1
69
79
70
73

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The Arkansas State Red Wolves will head to Conway, South Carolina on Saturday afternoon as they get set for a Sun Belt Conference showdown against the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at the HTC Center.

The Red Wolves enter this contest fresh off of back-to-back overtime games. Arkansas State split those contests to enter Saturday’s matchup with a .500-record through eight Sun Belt contests. Meanwhile, Coastal Carolina has also split its first eight league games to come in with a 4-4 mark in conference play. Can the Chanticleers bounce back with a win at home over Arkansas State on Saturday?

Arkansas State falls short in overtime vs. Appalachian State

Arkansas State came up short in overtime against Appalachian State 83-80 on Thursday night despite a balanced scoring effort. Melo Eggleston led four Red Wolves in double-figures with 17 points but they shot just 8-for-24 from deep and 16-for-30 from the free-throw line in the loss.

Mike Balado has the Red Wolves off to a 12-7 start, including a 4-4 mark in Sun Belt Conference play, and they come into the weekend ranked No. 230 in the latest KenPom rankings. Arkansas State has scored 100.8 points per 100 possessions for the season (173rd in the NCAA) despite ranking outside the top-150 in several major categories. The Red Wolves sport an effective field goal percentage of 48.7 percent (203rd in the NCAA) and they have turned the ball over 19.4 percent of the time on offense (179th in the NCAA). However, what they’ve lacked in efficiency, they’ve been able to make up for by getting to the free-throw line at the highest rate in the country. Arkansas State sports a free-throw rate of 48.6 percent (1st in the NCAA) but they have shot a pedestrian 71.5 percent from the charity stripe as a team (133rd in the NCAA).

On defense, the Red Wolves rely on generating turnovers to get stops. They have surrendered 106.2 points per 100 possessions for the season (290th in the NCAA) while forcing their opponents to turn the ball over 20.5 percent of the time (105th in the NCAA). However, once their defensive pressure is broken, opponents have been able to get open looks against the Red Wolves defense, which has allowed teams to shoot 54.4 percent from inside the arc this season (315th in the NCAA).

Chanticleers lose for second time in three games

Coastal Carolina lost to Little Rock 71-55 on Thursday night despite a double-double from senior forward Tommy Burton. Burton finished with 13 points and 10 rebounds while Keishan Brewton chipped in 10 points for the Chanticleers, who shot 5-for-25 from deep and committed 18 turnovers on the night.

Cliff Ellis’ squad enters the weekend slotted at No. 162 in the latest KenPom rankings after losing two of their previous three conference games. Coastal Carolina has scored 102.4 points per 100 possessions for the season (144th in the NCAA) but that number has plummeted to just 96.3 points per 100 possessions during conference play (10th in the Sun Belt). The Chanticleers have coughed up the basketball on 22.5 percent of their offensive possessions during league play (11th in the NCAA) while shooting just 29.2 percent from 3-point range (11th in the Sun Belt) and 64.7 percent from the free-throw line as a team (12th in the Sun Belt).

On defense, the Chanticleers have held opposing teams to 101.6 points per 100 possessions and they’ve improved on that mark during conference play. In eight Sun Belt contests, they’ve given up 96.5 points per 100 possessions (3rd in the Sun Belt) while holding teams to just 45.0 percent shooting from 2-point range (2nd in the Sun Belt).

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Arkansas State has not been very good on either end of the floor this season. They rely too heavily on getting to the free-throw line to generate points on offense, which could be a problem for them on the road in this one. In fact, the Red Wolves have generated 30.4 percent of their total points from the free-throw line during conference play (1st in the Sun Belt) but they have shot just 69.4 percent from the charity stripe as a team during that span. Meanwhile, Coastal Carolina has been one of the better 2-point defenses in the conference and the Red Wolves do most of their damage from 2-point range, so I’ll take my chances with the Chanticleers to cover the spread at home in this matchup on Saturday.

Prediction: Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

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The Chants aren’t afraid to push the pace on both ends of the floor. They rank 29th in adjusted tempo and 86th in average possession length on offense. Meanwhile, the Red Wolves have been speeding up the pace during conference play. Through eight league games, Arkansas State has gotten its shots up in an average of 16.6 seconds, which ranks 5th in the Sun Belt. Look for this Sun Belt contest to go over the projected total on Saturday afternoon.

Prediction: Over
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Written By Nick Raffoul

Shortly after graduating with an Honors in Business Administration, Nick turned his attention from traditional stocks and bonds to investing in the performance of sports teams. And has now joined our team here at Winners & Whiners. Nick uses a combination of advanced stats and historical data to create sports investment models to identify value and generate consistent profits. Let Nick win for you.