Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#787 Northeastern -7.5 vs.
#788 UNCW 134
Saturday, January 18, 2020 at 7:00pm EST
Written by Nick Raffoul

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#787 Northeastern University
#788 University of North Carolina at Wilmington
10-8
5-15
8-10
6-10-1
9-9
7-10
72
69
66
72

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The Northeastern Huskies will head on the road to Trask Coliseum in Wilmington, North Carolina on Saturday night for a Colonial Athletic Association clash against the UNC Wilmington Seahawks.

UNC Wilmington has lost 12 straight games, including seven straight CAA contests to open the conference season with a winless 0-7 mark. Meanwhile, Northeastern is expected to contend for another CAA title and they’ve won four of their first six conference contests. Can the Huskies keep their momentum going on the road against UNC Wilmington on Saturday?

Huskies bounce back with victory over Charleston

Northeastern bounced back from a two-game slide, beating Charleston 79-76 on Thursday night. The Huskies trailed by as many as 15 points in the second half but Jordan Roland scored a game-high 33 points while Bolden Brace added 19 points and 11 rebounds for Northeastern in the win.

Bill Coen’s squad enters the weekend ranked No. 134 in the latest KenPom rankings after getting out to a 4-2 record in CAA play. The Huskies have scored 105.7 points per 100 possessions for the season (67th in the NCAA) and they sport a healthy effective field goal percentage of 56.5 percent (4th in the NCAA). Northeastern has shot a red-hot 40.7 percent from deep (1st in the NCAA), 53.2 percent from 2-point range (53rd in the NCAA), and 81.2 percent from the charity stripe as a team (3rd in the NCAA).

On defense, Northeastern has given up 102.8 points per 100 possessions (215th in the NCAA) but that number has dropped to just 97.8 points per 100 possessions versus CAA opponents (3rd in the NCAA). Through six conference games, the Huskies have forced opponents to turn the ball over 19.3 percent of the time (3rd in the CAA) while holding them to an offensive rebounding rate of 20.2 percent (2nd in the CAA).

Seahawks drop 12th straight contest

UNC Wilmington extended its season-long slide to 12 games on Thursday night with a hard-fought 63-61 loss versus Hofstra. Mike Okauru scored a team-high 17 points and Shykeim Phillips added 12 points for the Seahawks.

C.B. McGrath is having a tough time in his third season in Wilmington. The Seahawks enter the weekend ranked No. 329 in the latest KenPom rankings following their 5-15 start. UNC Wilmington has scored only 91.5 points per 100 possessions for the season (319th in the NCAA) while sporting an effective field goal percentage of 44.4 percent (335th in the NCAA). The Seahawks have shot 42.9 percent from inside the arc (339th in the NCAA) and just 31.7 percent from beyond the arc (239th in the NCAA) on the year.

On defense, UNC Wilmington has allowed only 106.8 points per 100 possessions (302nd in the NCAA) for the season and 107.9 points per 100 possessions during conference play (9th in the CAA). The Seahawks rely on generating turnovers to get stops but they’ve been hurt from beyond the arc and on the offensive glass. They’ve allowed opponents to shoot a blistering 40.1 percent from beyond the arc (10th in the CAA) and sport an offensive rebounding rate of 33.0 percent (10th in the CAA).

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It’s hard to give any justification for taking the Seahawks in this matchup. UNC Wilmington ranks outside the top-300 in several major categories on both ends of the floor and they are up against a Northeastern team that is as potent as any team in the nation on the offensive end. The Huskies rank in the top-4 teams in the country in effective field goal percentage, 3-point percentage, and team free-throw percentage, so look for Northeastern to cruise to cover on the road in this CAA battle on Saturday.

Prediction: Northeastern Huskies -8

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Northeastern plays at one of the slowest paces in the country. The Huskies rank 287th in adjusted tempo and 271st in the average possession length on offense. Northeastern also ranks third in the CAA in defensive efficiency, so this should turn out to be a fairly slow-paced, low-scoring game. UNC Wilmington ranks among the worst teams in the nation on both ends of the floor and they enter this matchup ranked No. 256 in adjusted tempo. Take this game to stay under the projected total on Saturday night.

Prediction: Over 136
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Written By Nick Raffoul

Shortly after graduating with an Honors in Business Administration, Nick turned his attention from traditional stocks and bonds to investing in the performance of sports teams. And has now joined our team here at Winners & Whiners. Nick uses a combination of advanced stats and historical data to create sports investment models to identify value and generate consistent profits. Let Nick win for you.