Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#697 Oregon State -4 vs.
#698 Washington State 142
Saturday, January 18, 2020 at 4:00pm EST
Written by Chris Kubala

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#697 Oregon State University
#698 Washington State University
12-5
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It’s a clash of teams from the Pac-12 on the hardwood coming to you from the Pacific Northwest. The #8 Oregon State Beavers are on the road as they travel to the Palouse to face the Washington State Cougars Saturday afternoon. Oregon State was knocked off 64-56 on the road by Washington Thursday night in their last game. Washington State sprung an upset as they defeated #8 Oregon 72-61 at home on Thursday night. The Beavers lead the all-time series between the teams 102-64 and have won the last four meetings, including an 85-77 road win in the most recent matchup on March 9, 2019.

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Oregon State Beavers Try to Split Trip to Evergreen State

Oregon State started the season like a house of fire as they prevailed in nine of their first 10 contests. That included a neutral floor win over Iowa State and a defeat to Oklahoma in the stretch. Since then, the Beavers have been much more up and down as they have alternated losses and wins in their last seven contests, going 3-4 in that span. While there are marquee wins in that stretch at Colorado and at home against Arizona, there are also road losses at Utah and home against Arizona State before the defeat at Washington. Wayne Tinkle would like to see his guys bounce back and even their conference record here.

The Beavers are putting up an average of 76.5 points per game this season. Oregon State is solid on the glass, collecting an average of 34.6 rebounds per contest and dishes out 15.7 assists per game. The Beavers are 135th in scoring defense by allowing 67.3 points a game. Tres Tinkle leads the team with 19.6 points, 6.9 rebounds and 3.8 assists per game on the season. Ethan Thompson chips in 16.2 points, 4.2 rebounds and 4.8 assists per contest while Kylor Kelley is a force in the paint. He puts up 11.5 points, 4.9 rebounds and four blocks per contest. Zach Reichle, Alfred Hollins, Jared Lucas and Roman Silva are other rotation components for coach Wayne Tinkle. Oregon State shoots 47.9 percent from the floor as a team on the year. The Beavers connect on 6.2 threes a night while shooting 34.5 percent from beyond the arc. Oregon State has been decent at the charity stripe as they cash in 72.8 percent of their chances on the year.

The Beavers have a very healthy offensive attack according to what KenPom.com tells us this season. Oregon State is 17th in the nation in offensive efficiency this season. The Beavers are 33rd in effective field goal percentage (53.5 percent), 25th in turnover percentage (16.3 percent) and 23rd in two-point field goal percentage (54.4 percent) so far this season. Defensively, mainly due to the prowess of Kelley in the low block, the Beavers record the seventh-best block percentage (16.2 percent) in the nation. Oregon State is content with a slower pace as they come in 254th in tempo with 67.4 possessions per game on the year.

Washington State Cougars Seek Surprising Sweep of Oregon Schools

Washington State entered Thursday night’s game with a winning record but without much in the way of a win that would move the needle much. The Cougars’ best win heading into that contest came over New Mexico State earlier this season. Washington State came into the Oregon game losers of three of their previous four, all in conference play, and they had just been drubbed by 26 at the hands of Stanford. Of course, with the fickle whims of the hoops gods, the Cougars went out and stunned the Ducks, earning just their third win over a top-10 team in their history. That gives them a little momentum heading into this contest.

The Cougars are putting up an average of 71.5 points a night so far this season, which is 197th in the nation in scoring offense. Washington State pulls down 37.4 rebounds a night while handing out just 11.6 assists per game. The Cougars are above average defensively, ranking 113th in scoring defense as they give up 66.4 points a game. CJ Elleby leads the team with 18.8 points plus 7.1 rebounds per contest this season. Isaac Bonton is the only other player in double figures with 13.4 points plus 3.9 rebounds and 3.1 assists per game. Jeff Pollard, Aljaz Kunc, Noah Williams and Jervae Robinson are key members of the rotation for Kyle Smith’s team. Washington State shoots 40.1 percent from the floor as a team on the year. The Cougars splash 7.6 triples a night while shooting a dismal 30.6 percent from beyond the arc. Washington State is average at the charity stripe as they cash in 71.8 percent of their attempts this season. Marvin Cannon is out with an ankle injury that Smith said earlier this week could keep him out another three or four weeks. Jaylen Shead is likely done for the year with a hip injury, which will seriously test the Cougars’ depth.

The Cougars are just 184th in the nation in offensive efficiency this season. Washington State is a dismal 294th in effective field goal percentage (46.1 percent) this season, which more than negates that they are 16th in turnover percentage by only coughing the ball up on 15.8 percent of their possessions this season. The Cougars are just 283rd in three-point shooting and 279th in two-point shooting as they hit 46.2 percent from inside the arc. Washington State’s inefficiency makes it tough on a defense that is pretty good as they are 41st in turnover percentage at 22.7 percent and 99th in three-point field goal percentage defense at 31.3 percent. The Cougars play fast, ranking 73rd in tempo with 70.9 possessions per game.

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Washington State was tied with 10 minutes to go before kicking into high gear to shock Oregon, who seemingly had nothing left in the tank down the stretch. While Friel Court is going to be rocking as the school retires Warriors’ great Klay Thompson’s jersey, the fact remains that It’s tough to catch lightning in a bottle twice, much less twice in less than 48 hours. Oregon State has been up and down lately but their current holding pattern has them in line for a win here. Given the way that Tinkle can fill up the stat sheet and Kelley can shut down opponent’s possessions, give the edge to the Beavers on the road.

Prediction: Oregon State Beavers -3

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Oregon State is capable of putting up some solid point totals and they can do damage both inside and outside the arc. The presence of Kelley, provided he avoids foul trouble, is a massive bonus for the Beavers as there aren't many teams in the nation that can contend with what he brings to the table. Washington State does have their issues shooting the ball as they are 283rd from outside the arc and 279th inside it this season. However, we saw the Cougars hit 11 of 21 three-point attempts in the win over Oregon so the capability is there. Look for this one to just squeeze over the mark as the Beavers knock down enough free throws late to seal the deal.

Prediction: Over 141
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Written By Chris Kubala

Christopher Kubala has been crunching stats and following sports for over 30 years. His in-depth analysis and passion for sports have led him to writing books about sports, regularly being featured on sports talk radio and as the go-to person for any obscure trivia. Now he is writing for our team here at Winners @ Whiners. Chris keeps an eye on transactions and statistics like a hawk, especially when it comes to football, both the NFL and college. He is also very knowledgeable in the NHL, the NBA, college basketball and MLB. If you want consistency, then be sure and check out Chris’ content daily.