Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#653 TCU 134.5 vs.
#654 Oklahoma -3.5
Saturday, January 18, 2020 at 2:00pm EST
Written by Nick Raffoul

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#653 Texas Christian University
#654 University of Oklahoma
12-4
11-5
6-9
5-10-1
6-9
7-9
70
72
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The TCU Horned Frogs will head to the Lloyd Noble Center in Norman, Oklahoma on Saturday afternoon as they prepare for a Big 12 Conference showdown against the Oklahoma Sooners.

TCU is hoping to bounce back from its first conference loss of the season after watching their season-high four-game win streak come to an end earlier in the week. Meanwhile, Oklahoma is hoping to rebound after dropping two straight Big 12 contests following a 2-0 start to the conference season. Can the Sooners get back on the winning track against TCU on Saturday afternoon?

TCU snaps four-game winning streak vs. WVU

TCU snapped a four-game winning streak on Tuesday with a disappointing 81-49 loss on the road against West Virginia. RJ Nembhard scored 14 points while Desmond Bane added 13 points for the Horned Frogs, who shot just 31.8 percent from the field and committed 20 turnovers in the loss.

Jamie Dixon has guided the Horned Frogs to a 12-4 start and they enter the weekend ranked No. 55 in the latest KenPom rankings. TCU has scored 103.1 points per 100 possessions for the season (129th in the NCAA) despite turning the ball over 20.3 percent of the time (242nd in the NCAA). However, both of those numbers have been trending in the wrong direction since the start of league play. Through four Big 12 contests, the Horned Frogs have scored just 90.0 points per 100 possessions (8th in the Big 12) with a turnover rate of 23.2 percent (8th in the Big 12). They have also shot just 38.3 percent from inside the arc (10th in the Big 12) and just 59.2 percent from the free-throw line as a team (9th in the Big 12) during conference play. That has helped negate some hot-shooting from beyond the arc. TCU has attempted a whopping 48.8 percent of its total field goal attempts from 3-point range during league play (1st in the Big 12) while connecting at a rate of 38.2 percent (1st in the NCAA) from distance.

On defense, Kansas State has given up only 90.6 points per 100 possessions for the season but that number has increased to 96.0 points per 100 possessions versus Big 12 opponents (6th in the Big 12). While they have held Big 12 teams to just 24.7 percent shooting from deep (2nd in the Big 12), the Wildcats have allowed conference opponents to shoot a red-hot 54.3 percent from inside the arc (10th in the Big 12) through four games.

Sooners drop second straight Big 12 contest

Oklahoma extended its current slide to two games on Tuesday night with a tough 66-52 loss at home against Kansas. Kristian Doolittle and De’Vion Harmon scored 13 points apiece for the Sooners, who shot just 30.6 percent from the field and 8-for-29 from beyond the arc in the loss.

Lon Kruger has guided the Sooners to an 11-5 overall record, including a 2-2 mark in league play, and they enter the weekend ranked No. 52 in the latest KenPom rankings. The Sooners have scored 106.7 points per 100 possessions for the season (56th in the NCAA) and they’ve turned the ball over just 14.6 percent of the time (4th in the NCAA). Oklahoma hasn’t shot the ball efficiently, sporting an effective field goal percentage of only 48.2 percent (220th in the NCAA) but they’ve managed to take advantage of their opportunities at the charity stripe, where they have shot a healthy 76.6 percent as a team (23rd in the NCAA) for the season.

On defense, the Sooners have given up 93.6 points per 100 possessions (64th in the NCAA) and an effective field goal percentage of 47.8 percent (121st in the NCAA). However, those numbers have jumped to 101.2 points per 100 possessions (8th in Big 12) and 49.0 percent (7th in the Big 12) during league play.

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The Sooners have shown some fight this season, going 5-5 in Tier-A and Tier-B games. Meanwhile, TCU has yet to win a Tier-A game and they are just 2-4 in quality contests so far this season. The Horned Frogs have shot the lights out from deep through their first four conference games but they’ve struggled to defend opponents inside the arc. Combine that with a high turnover rate and the league’s second-worst free-throw shooting percentage, and it becomes even harder to justify taking TCU on the road in this spot. Oklahoma takes care of the ball and hits their free-throws, which should give them the advantage in both of those categories. Take the Sooners to cover the number at home in this conference showdown on Saturday. 

Prediction: Oklahoma Sooners

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TCU is comfortable with slowing the pace down on both ends of the floor. The Horned Frogs rank 285th in the nation in adjusted tempo and 284th in average possession length on offense. They have also struggled to score the basketball efficiently during conference play, which should bode well for the under in this spot. Meanwhile, Oklahoma ranks 28th in average possession length on offense and 72nd in adjusted tempo, so this should turn into more of an average-paced game. Take this Big 12 battle to stay under the projected total on Saturday afternoon.

Prediction: Under
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Written By Nick Raffoul

Shortly after graduating with an Honors in Business Administration, Nick turned his attention from traditional stocks and bonds to investing in the performance of sports teams. And has now joined our team here at Winners & Whiners. Nick uses a combination of advanced stats and historical data to create sports investment models to identify value and generate consistent profits. Let Nick win for you.