Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#759 UC Davis 150.5 vs.
#760 Cal State Northridge -6
Saturday, January 18, 2020 at 6:00pm EST
Written by Nick Raffoul

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#759 University of California, Davis
#760 California State University, Northridge
7-11
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The UC Davis Aggies will travel to the Matadome in Northridge, California on Saturday evening as they get set to take on the Cal State Northridge Matadors in a Big West Conference matchup.

UC Davis has won two of its previous three contests and they’ve split their first two Big West contests. Meanwhile, Cal State Northridge has won four of its previous five games after an 0-7 start. Can the Matadors keep their momentum going at the Matadome versus UC Davis on Saturday evening?

UC Davis splits first two Big West games

UC Davis knocked off Long Beach State 85-82 on Thursday night to improve to 1-1 in conference play. Ezra Manjon and Elijah Pepper scored 19 points apiece while Joe Mooney chipped in 14 points for the Aggies, who led by as 20 points before holding on for the win.

Jim Led has guided the Aggies to a 7-11 overall record and they enter the weekend ranked No. 247 in the latest KenPom rankings. UC Davis has scored 98.6 points per 100 possessions (215th in the NCAA) but they’ve improved upon that mark versus Big West opponents, averaging 102.7 points per 100 possessions during conference play (3rd in the Big West).

On defense, the Aggies have given up 105.7 points per 100 possessions (279th in the NCAA) and 104.8 points per 100 possessions during league play (8th in the Big West). In two league contests, the Aggies have allowed opponents to shoot a league-worst 54.8 percent (9th in the Big West) and a red-hot 50.0 percent from 3-point range (9th in the Big West).

Matadors righting the ship during league play

Cal State Northridge knocked off UC Riverside 80-68 on Thursday night behind 36 points from Lamine Diane. Terrell Gomez scored 17 points and Elijah Harkless chipped in 11 points for the Matadors, who shot 8-for-14 from 3-point range in the win.

Mark Gottfried has helped Cal State Northridge rebound from its 0-7 start to the season and they’ve gone 7-5 in their last 12 contests. The Matadors enter the weekend ranked No. 257 in the latest KenPom rankings following their 2-1 start to league play. Cal State Northridge has scored 101.6 points per 100 possessions for the season (162nd in the NCAA) but they’ve managed to improve that mark to 105.6 points per 100 possessions during league play (2nd in Big West. Through three conference games, they have shot a healthy 54.1 percent from 2-point range (1st in the Big West) to go along with the top effective field goal percentage of 54.8 percent (1st in the Big West).

On defense, the Matadors have given up 109.2 points per 100 possessions for the season (328th in the NCAA) and an effective field goal percentage of 56.1 percent (344th in the NCAA). However, that number has dropped to just 100.1 points per 100 possessions versus Big West opponents (6th in the Big West).

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Some people might be turned off by Cal State Northridge’s overall record but the Matadors have been turning things around since the beginning of December. They are 7-5 in their last 12 games and they’ve won two of their first three conference games. The Matadors have also been flashing a ton of improvement on both ends of the floor. They’ve increased their offensive rating by 4.0 points per 100 possessions in league play while lowering their defensive rating by 9.1 points per 100 possessions on the defensive end of the floor. Take the Matadors to cover the number at home in this Big West battle on Saturday.

Prediction: Cal State Northridge Matadors -6

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Cal State Northridge likes to push the pace and they don’t offer a lot of resistance on the defensive end. The Matadors rank 1st in the Big West in adjusted tempo and 1st in average possession length on offense. They’ve also flashed tremendous improvement on the offensive end, ranking 2nd in the conference in offensive efficiency and 1st in effective field goal percentage. Meanwhile, UC Davis ranks 3rd in the Big West in adjusted tempo. Take this game to go over the projected total on Saturday evening.

Prediction: Over 150
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Written By Nick Raffoul

Shortly after graduating with an Honors in Business Administration, Nick turned his attention from traditional stocks and bonds to investing in the performance of sports teams. And has now joined our team here at Winners & Whiners. Nick uses a combination of advanced stats and historical data to create sports investment models to identify value and generate consistent profits. Let Nick win for you.