Air Force takes on No. 9 Nevada in a Mountain West battle on Saturday night. Nevada bounced back from a bad loss to New Mexico by 27 on Jan. 5 to destroy San Jose State (92-53), Fresno State (74-64) and….
A big challenge for Air Force
Air Force is 7-10 on the season and just 2-3 in the Mountain West. The good news is that they are on a two-game winning streak, having upset San Diego State (62-48) and UNLV (106-88) at home. In their win over UNLV, Ryan Swan led the Falcons with 22 points and nine rebounds, while Caleb Morris added 19 points and six boards. Air Force shot a blistering 59.7 percent from the field and 9-of-20 (45%) from beyond the arc. They played a near-flawless game with 20 assists and just six turnovers. UNLV did shoot 48.4 percent from the floor and made an impressive 14 of 28 from beyond the arc.
Lavelle Scottie leads Air Force with 13.4 points per game, while Ryan Swain adds 6.6 rebounds on 55 percent shooting. The Falcons average 68.6 points per game on 47.5 percent shooting (33.6% 3pt). They allow 71.4 points per game on 45.7 percent shooting (35.5% 3pt). They struggle at the foul line, averaging just 68.5 percent (223rd).
Wolf Pack tested in Idaho
Cody Martin nailed a three-pointer with 4.5 seconds left to lead No. 10 Nevada over Boise State, 72-71 on Tuesday. The Wolf Pack improved to 17-1 overall and 4-1 in the Mountain West to lead the league by a half game. Martin had 16 points to lead Nevada, while Jordan Caroline added 15 points, 13 rebounds, two blocks and seven turnovers. Nevada shot 51 percent from the floor and held the Broncos to 42.1 percent shooting and 5-of-21 (23.8%) from beyond the arc. The Wolf Pack led by 12 points in the second half but Boise State came back. They also held Nevada to a season-low two offensive rebounds.
— Nevada Basketball (@NevadaHoops) January 16, 2019
Nevada has won three straight since getting crushed by New Mexico by 27 on Jan. 5. Caroline leads Nevada with 18.2 points and 9.9 rebounds. The Wolf Pack average 80.2 points per game on 45.7 percent shooting (33.3% 3pt). They allow 66.6 points per game on 40.1 percent shooting (31.4% 3pt).
- 1-5-1 ATS last 7 vs. a team with a long SU record.
Air Force is:
- 11-5 ATS last 16 Saturday games.
- 5-2 ATS last 7 overall.
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
That’s way too many points to lay against a team that just beat San Diego State and UNLV. Sure, that was at home in the thin air but the Falcons have to be feeling very confident right now. Nevada was fortunate to beat Boise State on the road. They beat Air Force on the road last season by 11 laying 13.5. I can see a similar score. Air Force is 4-0 ATS the last 4 vs. a team with a winning SU record.
Prediction: Air Force +23.5
Full-Game Total Pick
Air Force will continue to push the tempo just as they did against UNLV. Of course, defensively, they will have issues with the Martin twins and Caroline. The Falcons have gone over in three of their last four games. They are 6-2 Over their last 8 after an ATS win and 5-2 Over their last 7 vs. Nevada.
Prediction: Over 140