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Virginia vs. Wake Forest,
1-21-2018 - Expert Prediction

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#819 Virginia
Cavaliers
#820 Wake Forest
Demon Deacons

Sunday, January 21, 2018 at 6:05pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

Virginia Cavaliers

-

-
ATS
-
O/U
0
PPG
0
OPPG

Wake Forest Demon Deacons

-

-
ATS
-
O/U
0
PPG
0
OPPG

Betting Trends

All NCAAB

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Wake Forest hosts second-ranked Virginia on Sunday night at Lawrence Joel Coliseum. The Cavaliers have won nine straight games as they continue to dominate the ACC slate. It hasn’t been so successful with the Demon Deacons, who have lost six of their last seven. This contest will be shown on ESPNU.

Line: Virginia -10

Total: 126.5

Hunter’s contribution off the bench helps the Cavaliers again roll past GT

Virginia’s style of play is incredibly difficult to defeat, and no one in the ACC has been successful yet. They’ve held teams to an average of 52.6 points per game on the season, and while they barely ever hit 70 on offense, it doesn’t really matter. The latest victory was at Georgia Tech by a commanding 64-48 margin. Even though the spreads are getting larger for the Cavaliers, they continue to cover them more often than not (7-point faves at GT).

They held the home team to 40.5 percent shooting, which isn’t necessarily terrible, but they were limited to just 42 field goal attempts. The final result could have been worse if the Cavaliers were better than 3-for-13 from downtown. De’Andre Hunter was solid off the bench for Virginia, posting 17 points and 7 rebounds. He’s now had 10 or more points in five of his last seven games.

Demon Deacons’ struggles from downtown cost them in fourth straight loss

On the complete opposite end of the spectrum, Wake Forest has only found success once this season in the ACC, a 73-67 win over Syracuse at home. Since then, they’ve lost four straight games — both straight up and against the spread. The latest result was a 72-63 beating at North Carolina State. They were 4.5-point underdogs against a mediocre squad but still lost by nearly double digits.

On the bright side, the Demon Deacons were in position to cover most of the night, but the Wolfpack was able to pull away at the very end. WF finished hitting just 38.5 percent from the field and went 4-for-17 from 3-point range. Bryant Crawford (16.2 ppg) led the team with 18 points — a lot of that thanks to hitting all eight free throw attempts, but he missed all six attempts from downtown. He’s been mostly reliable at least generating 18 points or more in four of his last five games.

Trends

Virginia is:

  • 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games
  • 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing less than 50 points in prior contest

Wake Forest is:

  • 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall
  • 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after an ATS loss

If there’s a silver lining in this game, the Demon Deacons have been successful against UVA at home. However, they’re already getting the benefit of not being down by more at the spread, and the Cavaliers are 5-1 ATS away from home this season.

Pick: Virginia

The under hits extremely frequently as you’d might expect with Virginia, but it also does so with Wake Forest. Combined, they’ve seen the under hit 22 times in 31 games. However, the oddsmakers are going to make this an extremely small number, and the over has popped up when that’s happened — especially with WF.

  • Over is 4-1 in Demon Deacons last 5 against teams with a winning SU record
  • Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in this matchup

Pick: Over

2

Brian Spaen

Blogging journeyman and sports handicapper. His passion for statistics, analyzing team reports, and watching multiple hours of sports daily gives him an edge for picking who will beat the spread. Also writes about technology and video games. Hobbies include enjoying life in the big city, spending way too much time on YouTube, and discovering new craft beer and whisky.

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