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Texas Tech vs. Kansas State Prediction,
Preview,
and Odds - 1-22-2019

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#619 Texas Tech
Red Raiders 119.5
#620 Kansas State
Wildcats -2.5

Tuesday, January 22, 2019 at 7:00pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

Texas Tech Red Raiders

15 - 3

6-11
ATS
6-12
O/U
71
PPG
55
OPPG

Kansas State Wildcats

14 - 4

9-9
ATS
6-12
O/U
65
PPG
59
OPPG

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The Texas Tech Red Raiders will head on the road to the Bramlage Coliseum in Manhattan, Kansas on Tuesday evening for a Big 12 Conference showdown versus the Kansas State Wildcats.

The Wildcats have found their footing as of late and there is no coincidence that their recent four-game winning streak has coincided with the return for senior forward Dean Wade. Initially pegged to be out as many as eight weeks, Wade returned from a partial tear of a tendon in his right foot after missing just six games and has returned to form over his past two contests, averaging 18 points and 3.5 assists per game during that span, which held him earn Big 12 Player of the Week honors. Can Kansas State continue to stay on a roll versus a tough Texas Tech defense?

Red Raiders lose second straight Big 12 game

Texas Tech squandered an early 13-point first half lead and lost on the road to Baylor 73-62. Jarrett Culver scored a team-high 19 points, while Brandone Francis added 14 for the Red Raiders, who turned the ball over 17 times on the night in the loss.

Chris Beard’s squad has slid to No. 10 in the latest KenPom rankings after losing each of their last two conference games. The Red Raiders are scoring just 106.8 points per 100 possessions for the season (112th in the NCAA) and 95.2 points per 100 possessions (10th in the Big 12) during league play. Texas Tech has done most of their damage in conference play either inside the arc or at the free throw line, where they sport the top free throw rate in the conference at 40.5 percent. The Red Raiders have gotten 23.6 percent of their total points in conference play from the free throw line (1st in the Big 12) and they are shooting a healthy 74.0 percent from the charity stripe as a team during league play (3rd in the Big 12).  However, Texas Tech has struggled to remain efficient on the offensive end. They are shooting a healthy 50.5 percent from two-point range (3rd in the Big 12) and just 29.6 percent from downtown (8th in the Big 12) in conference play. The Red Raiders have also turned the ball over on 20.0 percent of their offensive possessions through their first six league games (7th in the Big 12).

Texas Tech has been able to survive by limiting teams to only 84.3 points per 100 possessions for the season (1st in the NCAA) and 93.5 points per 100 possessions (1st in the Big 12) during conference play. The Red Raiders have held Big 12 opponents to an effective field goal percentage of only 44.8 percent (1st in the Big 12), while forcing them to turn the ball over 21.3 percent of the time (2nd in the Big 12).

Wade helping take Wildcats to the next level

Kansas State extended their current win streak to four games on Saturday with an impressive 65-55 victory at home versus TCU. Xavier Sneed scored a team-high 19 points, while Dean Wade added 16 points and handed out six assists on the night to help the Wildcats overcame a 3 for 15 shooting performance from downtown.

Bruce Weber’s squad comes into Tuesday’s matchup ranked No. 41 in the latest KenPom rankings after surviving a tough stretch without one of their best players. Kansas State is scoring 104.0 points per 100 possessions for the season (178th in the NCAA) and that number has dipped all the way to 99.2 points per 100 possessions (7th in the Big 12) during conference play. The Wildcats are also playing at one of the slowest paces in the entire country, averaging 64.9 possessions per game for the season (326th in the NCAA) and just 62.5 possessions per game in league play (9th in the Big 12). The Wildcats get their shots up an average of 18.2 seconds on the offensive end (268th in the NCAA), but their slow pace has helped them take care of the basketball at a high level. Kansas State is only turning the ball over on 16.0 percent of their offensive possessions during Big 12 play (2nd in the Big 12) and Wildcats sport an effective field goal percentage of only 46.8 percent through their first six conference games (7th in the Big 12). They have shot just 46.3 percent from inside the arc (8th in the Big 12), 31.7 percent from 3-point range (7th in the Big 12) and 67.6 percent from the charity stripe as a team (7th in the Big 12) during league play so far this year.

While their offensive numbers haven’t been pretty, the Wildcats have managed to stay in games by becoming one of the best defensive teams in the country. Kansas State has surrendered just 88.7 points per 100 possessions for the season (5th in the NCAA) and 99.2 points per 100 possessions during Big 12 play (3rd in the Big 12). They have forced their opponents to turn the ball over on a whopping 24.5 percent of their defensive possessions for the season (1st in the Big 12), which has helped them get out to a 4-2 record in league play despite playing their first three games without Wade in the lineup.

The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.

Full-Game Side Bet
Rating:

Texas Tech has covered the spread in just three of their last 10 trips to Texas Tech heading into this matchup. The Red Raiders rank as the best defensive team in the Big 12, but they’ve struggled on the offensive end, especially over their past two contests. Texas Tech has not scored more than 68 points in any of their conference games this season. Kansas State seems re-energized by the return of Dean Wade, who opens up a lot of things offensively for the Wildcats.  The Wildcats are also more disciplined with the basketball, which has me leaning towards Kansas State covering the spread at home on Tuesday night.

Prediction: Pick: Kansas State Wildcats -2.5

Full-Game Total Pick
Rating:

These two teams have stayed under the projected total in 12 of their last 15 meetings and six of their last seven games at Texas Tech. The Wildcats have stayed under the projected total in 34 of their last 51 home games and eight of their last 11 overall. Meanwhile, the Red Raiders have stayed under in 12 of their last 15 versus a team with a winning record and seven of their last 10 after failing to cover the spread in their previous contest. This game features a battle between two of the top-5 defensive teams in the country, so take the under with confidence in this game on Tuesday night.

Prediction: Under 119

Nick Raffoul

Shortly after graduating with an Honors in Business Administration, Nick turned his attention from traditional stocks and bonds to investing in the performance of sports teams. He uses a combination of advanced stats and historical data to create sports investment models to identify value and generate consistent profits.

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