Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#715 Arkansas State 140.5 vs.
#716 Troy -2
Saturday, January 25, 2020 at 5:15pm EST
Written by The Stash

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W/L
ATS
O/U
PPG
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#715 Arkansas St University
#716 Troy University
14-7
8-13
14-5
9-10
10-8-1
10-8-1
70
69
70
71

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Sunbelt action down South here as the Troy Trojans prepare to host the Arkansas State Red Wolves. Neither team is very good this year although the Arkansas State does have a much better record at 14-7 while Troy sits at 8-13. Despite the very different records oddsmakers have this game as virtually even. It will be streamed by ESPN+.

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Arkansas State Improving

Arkansas State certainly hasn't been without their flaws, but they have undoubtedly seen a marked improvement from last year. After going 13-19 a year ago, the Red Wolves enter this one at 14-7, already eclipsing their win total from last season. They are 6-4 in conference play, and two of those Sunbelt losses came by only three points. When they played this very same Troy team just a few games ago, they beat them by eight points. They continue to defy expectations and are a perfect 4-0 against the spread in their last four games. They are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven road games, so they clearly don't have too much of an issue playing away from home.

The strength of this team has been the offense. They are serviceable from downtown, and they can beat you in a variety of different ways. They spread the ball around really well, and have six different guys averaging at least 8.3 points per game. Sophomore forward Melo Eggleston missed the early part of the season, and his return has provided them with a huge boost. He is now averaging 10.5 points and 6.3 rebounds per game, so it's not too surprising that Arkansas State has picked up their play recently. Despite playing at a very slow pace, they have put up at least 75 points in each of their past four games, which is quite impressive.

Troy Having A Rough One

Things haven't been going quite as smoothly for Troy this season. The Trojans have struggled for the most part, and enter this one at 8-13. They've been mired in mediocrity for the past couple of seasons, and ever since winning the Sun Belt three years ago they've been stuck in a rut. They haven't just been losing, they've been *losing*. Each of their last two losses were by at least 16 points, and they were to mediocre Georgia Southern and Arkansas Little Rock teams. In fact, four of their past five losses have been by at least 16 points.

They haven't been too much better at home this year, and it's not like they are drawing a raucous crowd these days. They've been bad on both sides of the ball, but things have been particularly brutal on offense. They don't shoot the ball well from 3, and are shooting only 40.8 percent from the floor as a team. Their leading scorer is averaging just 12.7 points per game, and he has been an extremely inefficient chucker as he is only shooting 34.4 percent from the floor. Despite not playing at that fast of a piece, the Trojans manage to turn the ball over a whopping 14.8 times per game while only forcing 6.0 steals. This team has very little size, as only one of their top six scorers are taller than 6'4.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

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I like Arkansas State a lot here, and I don't think this spread should be as tight as it is. This Troy team is terrible, and when they lose they almost always seem to get blown out. Four of their past five losses have been by at least 16 points, and I think we could see a similar story here. Arkansas State has been great against the spread recently, and they are better on both sides of the ball. I am pretty high on their offense, and they have scored at least 75 points in four straight games. This one won't be close.

Prediction: Arkansas State

Full-Game Total Pick

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I think the over also makes a lot of sense in this spot. Arkansas State's offense has been on fire recently, and I don't think that's going to stop here against a weak Troy defense. Ever since they added Eggleston back into the fold, their offense has been rolling. Troy obviously doesn't have a very efficient offense, but they play at a pretty fast pace, and the over is still 5-1 in their last six games. The over is also a perfect 4-0 in Arkansas State's last four. This one should have a lot of action.

Prediction: Over
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Written By Alex Porter , "The Stash"

Alex Porter is one of the premier minds in basketball and football handicapping. With a degree in statistics, Alex uses advanced metrics as well as copious amounts of film study to make his picks. Since starting his betting career at the age of 18, the recent college graduate has never had a losing football season. We are very glad to have Alex as a part of our team here at StatSalt.