Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#765 New Mexico 155.5 vs.
#766 Nevada -10.5
Saturday, January 25, 2020 at 8:00pm EST
Written by Nick Raffoul

Stats

Back

Teams
Logo
W/L
ATS
O/U
PPG
OPPG
#765 University of New Mexico
#766 University of Nevada Reno
16-5
12-8
9-11
10-9-1
12-7-1
9-11
80
74
74
70

More

This article covers a past game!

View upcoming games.

The New Mexico Lobos will head to the Lawlor Events Center in Reno, Nevada for a Mountain West Conference matchup against the Nevada Wolf Pack.

It’s been a weird season for the Lobos, who are off to a strong 16-5 start. However, the list of casualties is starting to grow for New Mexico, which recently dismissed power forward Carlton Bragg Jr. and lost of its top players due to injury. Meanwhile, Nevada has won five of its first eight conference games but the Wolf Pack remain without a quality win under Steve Alford. Can the Wolf Pack sustain their momentum at home against the Lobos on Saturday night?

Heard about the new XFL - a brand new, more intense, and fan focused football league!

View our XFL Predictions

New Mexico snaps two-game skid without Lyle

New Mexico snapped its season-long two-game losing streak on Tuesday with an 86-59 victory at home over San Jose. Corey Manigault led all players in scoring with 21 points while Zane Martin chipped in 20 and Makuch Maluach added 15 points and 13 rebounds in the win. The Lobos never trailed and led by as many as 31 points without leading scorer JaQuan Lyle.

Paul Weir’s squad comes into the weekend slotted at No. 114 in the latest KenPom rankings after stopping their slide at two games. New Mexico has scored 107.2 points per 100 possessions for the season (69th in the NCAA) and 107.4 points per 100 possessions during conference play (3rd in the Mountain West). Through eight conference games, the Lobos own the top effective field goal percentage in the Mountain West at 55.3 percent and they’ve shot a red-hot 58.6 percent from 2-point range (1st in the Mountain West). However, they’ve struggled to take care of the basketball, turning the ball over on 19.9 percent of their offensive possessions during conference play (11th in the Mountain West).

On defense, the Lobos have given up 102.0 points per 100 possessions for the season (168th in the NCAA) but that number has jumped to 106.4 points per 100 possessions during league play (8th in the Mountain West). Opposing teams have been torching the Lobos from beyond the arc this season. Mountain West opponents have shot a blistering 37.8 percent from long-range against the Lobos’ defense (11th in the Mountain West) so far this year.

Harris leads Nevada to win over UNLV

Nevada got back on the winning track on Wednesday with an 86-72 victory at home against UNLV. Jalen Harris scored a team-high 28 points while Jazz Johnson chipped in 19 points for the Wolf Pack, who shot 11-for-26 from deep and turned the ball over just six times in the win.

Alford’s first season in Reno has been solid but unspectacular. Nevada has scored 106.6 points per 100 possessions for the season (72nd in the NCAA) and 106.3 points per 100 possessions during conference play (5th in the Mountain West). The Wolf Pack are studious with the basketball, turning the ball over a league-low 16.0 percent of the time during conference play. Nevada also isn’t shy about letting it fly from beyond the arc, where they’ve attempted 44.0 percent of their total field goal attempts (4th in the Mountain West) and they lead the league in 3-point shooting at 40.5 percent. However, the Wolf Pack have connected on just 44.8 percent of their shots from inside the arc (11th in the Mountain West) so far this year.

On defense, Nevada has given up 99.3 points per 100 possessions (128th in the NCAA) and 101.3 points per 100 possessions during conference play (4th in the Mountain West). The Wolf Pack rank as the second-best effective field goal percentage in the conference at 46.1 percent and they rank first in defensive block rate at 12.5 percent.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

Insiders Status:

Rating:

Nevada has shot 44.0 percent of their total attempts from 3-point range during conference play and the Wolf Pack have nailed a ridiculous 40.5 percent of their attempts in league play. That should give them the advantage in this game against a Lobos’ defense that has let Mountain West opponents shoot the lights out so far this season. New Mexico is also playing without three of its best players and one of those, Carlton Bragg Jr., won’t be rejoining the team anytime soon. Keep an eye on the status of Lobos’ leading scorer JaQuan Lyle, who missed the team’s last game with a knee injury, but either way, I like the Wolf Pack covering the spread at home in this matchup on Saturday night.

Prediction: Nevada Wolf Pack

Full-Game Total Pick

Insiders Status:

Rating:

Nevada plays fast and the Wolf Pack have the green-light from long-range, so this game could turn into a shootout in Reno. Nevada ranks 71st in the country in adjusted tempo and 68th in average possession length on offense. Nearly 39.1 percent of their total points this season have come from behind the arc (20th in the NCAA) and the Lobos have allowed MW opponents to shoot 37.8 percent from long-range on the season. Meanwhile, New Mexico ranks 21st in adjusted tempo and 30th in average possession length on offense, so look for this game to go over the projected total on Saturday night.

Prediction: Over
Loading...

Written By Nick Raffoul

Shortly after graduating with an Honors in Business Administration, Nick turned his attention from traditional stocks and bonds to investing in the performance of sports teams. And has now joined our team here at Winners & Whiners. Nick uses a combination of advanced stats and historical data to create sports investment models to identify value and generate consistent profits. Let Nick win for you.