Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#691 TCU 131 vs.
#692 Arkansas -7
Saturday, January 25, 2020 at 4:00pm EST
Written by Chris Kubala



#691 Texas Christian University
#692 University of Arkansas


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It’s a non-conference contest on the college hardwood in the Razorback State. The TCU Horned Frogs are on the road as they travel to face the Arkansas Razorbacks Saturday afternoon in the Big 12/SEC Challenge. TCU upended #18 Texas Tech 65-54 at home Tuesday night in their last contest. Arkansas was dumped 77-70 on the road by Mississippi State in their previous contest Wednesday night. The Razorbacks own a 62-27 advantage in the all-time series between the teams and took the last two meetings. That includes a 97-61 romp at home in the most recent meeting, which came back on February 16, 1991.

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TCU Horned Frogs Look for Second Straight Upset

TCU has been off to a solid start for Jamie Dixon as they come in off an upset win over #18 Texas Tech. That victory, which is the signature win on the Horned Frogs’ resume, improved the team to 13-5 overall and 4-2 in the Big 12. TCU started the year with a four-game win streak before losing to Clemson in overtime on a neutral floor. The Horned Frogs won two straight before losing by two on a neutral floor to USC. That was followed by two straight wins, a loss to Xavier, and then four straight victories. TCU lost a pair of one-sided contests to West Virginia and Oklahoma on the road before beating Texas Tech.

The Horned Frogs are putting up an average of 69.6 points per game this season, which is 231st in the nation in scoring offense. TCU is collecting 36.4 rebounds a night while handing out 16.1 assists per contest. The Horned Frogs are very good defensively, ranking 36th in the nation by allowing 62.3 points per game. Desmond Bane leads the team with 17.2 points, 6.7 rebounds and 3.4 assists per game. RJ Nembhard (12.2 points, 3.8 rebounds, 3.8 assists) and Kevin Samuel (10.5 points, 8.5 rebounds) are averaging in double figures this season. Edric Dennis, Jaire Grayer, PJ Fuller and Francisco Farabello are looked at to be contributors on the offensive end. TCU is shooting 43.3 percent from the floor as a team. The Horned Frogs are knocking down 9.4 triples per game on 35.5 percent shooting from beyond the arc. TCU has been below average at the charity stripe, converting a measly 62.4 percent of their chances this season.

The KenPom numbers point out that TCU is better on the defensive end of the floor than they are on the offensive end this season. TCU is 116th in offensive efficiency and 35th in defensive efficiency this season. The Horned Frogs are 121st in effective field goal percentage defense (47.8 percent), 21st in turnover percentage (23.5 percent), 89th in two-point field goal percentage (46.5 percent), 37th in block percentage (12.9 percent) and 28th in steal percentage (11.7 percent) this season. TCU plays a slow pace as they are 292nd in tempo with an average of 65.8 possessions per game on the year.

Arkansas Razorbacks Look to Bounce Back at Home

Arkansas is looking to get back on track at this stage of the game as they have sputtered a bit lately. The Razorbacks started the year 8-0 on the season before falling in overtime on the road to Western Kentucky. Arkansas won four straight, including a road win over Indiana, before losing to LSU on the road by two. The Razorbacks bounced back with two straight wins, including a 20-point win over Vanderbilt, but they come in with back to back defeats. Arkansas dropped a pair of seven-point decisions, losing at home to Kentucky before falling on the road to Mississippi State.

The Razorbacks are 115th in the nation in scoring offense as they put up 73.9 points per game on the season. Arkansas collects an average of 33.2 boards a contest while the team is 258th by dishing out 12.7 assists per night. The Razorbacks are 45th in the nation in scoring defense as they give up only 62.9 points per game. Mason Jones leads the team with 18.3 points plus 6.2 rebounds per game this season. Isaiah Joe is one of two other players in double figures at the moment as he averages 16.8 points a night. Desi Sills, Adrio Bailey, Jalen Harris and Jimmy Whitt Jr. (15.1 points, 5.2 rebounds) are solid secondary options in the scoring attack. Arkansas is shooting 44.1 percent from the field as a team on the season. The Razorbacks knock down an average of 7.4 three-pointers a game while shooting 30.7 percent from beyond the arc. Arkansas has been above average at the charity stripe as they knock down 73.8 percent of their attempts this season.

The Razorbacks are above average on the offensive end of the floor and elite defensively according to KenPom. Arkansas is 94th in offensive efficiency and a sparkling 11th in defensive efficiency this season. The Razorbacks are 10th in effective field goal percentage defense (43.9 percent), 20th in turnover percentage (23.5 percent) and stand #1 in the nation in three-point field goal percentage defense (23.9 percent) this season. Arkansas is 52nd in block percentage (12 percent) and 18th in steal percentage (11.8 percent) on the year. The Razorbacks play a fast pace as they are 65th in tempo with an average of 70.7 possessions per game on the year.

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Full-Game Side Bet

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TCU comes in off their most impressive win of the season but that contest came at home on the year. The Horned Frogs have their work cut out for them here though as they go on the road. Arkansas is 10-1 at home this season while TCU is just 1-3 on the road on the year. The Horned Frogs have had their issues offensively and they have to deal with a tough Arkansas defense that makes life tough for opposing teams. TCU doesn’t have the weapons offensively to keep up with Arkansas, especially in a hostile environment. Look for the Razorbacks to come up with the victory in this contest.

Prediction: Arkansas Razorbacks

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TCU is going to have to find a way to get their offensive attack going beyond Nembhard and Bane. The Horned Frogs are 207th in field goal percentage and a dismal 340th in free throw shooting this season. Facing an Arkansas team that is 44th in field goal percentage defense (39.6 percent) in addition to leading the nation in three-point field goal percentage defense is going to be a challenge for TCU. The Razorbacks have to be more efficient offensively as their shooting has been mediocre at best this season. This one ends up under the total as TCU tries to slow things down and Arkansas' shooting struggles keep things in check.

Prediction: Under

Written By Chris Kubala

Christopher Kubala has been crunching stats and following sports for over 30 years. His in-depth analysis and passion for sports have led him to writing books about sports, regularly being featured on sports talk radio and as the go-to person for any obscure trivia. Now he is writing for our team here at Winners @ Whiners. Chris keeps an eye on transactions and statistics like a hawk, especially when it comes to football, both the NFL and college. He is also very knowledgeable in the NHL, the NBA, college basketball and MLB. If you want consistency, then be sure and check out Chris’ content daily.