Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#613 Florida State -1.5 vs.
#614 Virginia 114
Tuesday, January 28, 2020 at 7:00pm EST
Written by Benjamin Hayes



#613 Florida State University
#614 University of Virginia


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No. 5 Florida State takes on unranked Virginia on Tuesday night from Charlottesville. The Seminoles sit at 7-1 in the ACC, which places them in second place. Virginia is 5-4 in the ACC, which puts them in a three-way tied for fifth place.

FSU defeated Virginia on Jan. 15 at home, 54-50.

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A close win but the streak continues

Florida State edged Notre Dame on Saturday 85-84 as a nine-point favorite. That came after barely beating Miami-Fla. by four in overtime and edging Virginia by four at home. The win over the Irish marked their 10th straight win and 59th in their last 62 home games. Notre Dame had a chance to win but an off-balanced shot missed the mark right before the buzzer.

“I think we needed every yell that was coming from the stands,” FSU coach Leonard Hamilton said after the game. “We needed all the energy that we could muster. That ball was bouncing around and I was on the sideline praying.

“So prayers were answered tonight.”

According to KenPom, FSU ranks 17th overall, 41st in adjusted offensive efficiency and 23rd in adjusted defensive efficiency. Devin Vassell (6-7, 194) leads the Seminoles with 13.1 points per game (5.2rpg). He scored 18 points and grabbed five rebounds in the first meeting against Virginia. Patrick Williams (6-8, 225) leads the team in blocks with 1.2 per game, but he's listed as questionable due to a toe injury. He missed the Notre Dame game.

Overall, the Noles average 76 points per game on 46.1% shooting (35.6% 3pt). They allow just 64.6 points per game on 40.3% shooting (33.2% 3pt).

Looking for consistency

Virginia sits at 59th in the latest Net Rankings, which means they have some work to do. The Cavs went through a rough patch where they lost at Boston College, Syracuse in overtime and at Florida State. They bounced back with a 63-58 road win over Georgia Tech last Saturday and then fell at home to NC State by two last Monday. UVa edged Wake Forest in their previous game on Jan. 26 65-63 in overtime.

The Cavs found a way to get by the Demon Deacons thanks to 21 points from junior-college transfer Tomas Woldetensae, who made 7 of 14 three-pointers. The rest of the team made just 1 of 16 from long range so his shooting was the difference. UVA struggled from the field (37%) and the line (11 of 19), but they held Wake Forest to just 31% shooting and forced 15 turnovers.

Virginia is ranked 53rd overall by KenPom, 258th in adjusted efficiency offense and second in adjusted efficiency defense. Mamadi Diakite leads the Cavs with 13.2 points per game while Braxton Key leads in boards with 7.3 per contest. UVa leads the nation in points allowed per game (50.4) and field goal percentage defense (35.6%). Offensively, they have struggled, averaging just 56 points per game (351st) on 40.1% shootign (332nd) and 26.7% three-point shooting (349th). The outrebound opponents by 4.2 per game.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

Insiders Status:


I know Florida State has played some close games as of late. But they keep winning and to give them a point, even if it lands on FSU -1, I'm taking the Noles. Virginia's lack of offense continues to haunt them and they are facing a very good defensive team. In the last meeting, Virginia was able to hang in the game, because they shot 46% from the field, which is 6% higher than their average. The Noles are a contender because they shoot the ball well from deep (36%) and from the free throw line (77%).

Prediction: Florida State +1.5

Full-Game Total Pick

Insiders Status:


Virginia shot 46% from the field in the first game and it still went well under the 113.5 total. They won't shoot 46% from the field this time (much lower), but they will keep the slowest pace in the nation. They rank 353rd in the in the nation in pace of play with 62.4 per game. These teams have gone under in eight of their last nine meetings.

Prediction: Under 115.5

Half-Time Side Pick

Insiders Status:


Florida State is the better team, but Virginia needs this game more. I think they'll get off to a better start and will be a little more motivated to get the win at home.

Prediction: Virginia +1/2+02 first half

Written By Benjamin Hayes

Ben has been a sports writer for over 30 years, dabbling in college and pro basketball, college and pro football, baseball, college lacrosse, minor league baseball and even college gymnastics. He's also been involved in the gaming industry for over 25 years and has been looking to beat the books since he was 13!