Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#635 Fresno State 141.5 vs.
#636 Air Force -3
Tuesday, January 28, 2020 at 9:00pm EST
Written by Adam Rauzino

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#635 California State University, Fresno
#636 Air Force Academy
6-14
9-12
7-10-1
10-10
10-7-1
12-8
67
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The Fresno State Bulldogs will head on the road to take on the Air Force Falcons in an MWC battle Tuesday night from the Clune Arena. The Bulldogs were crushed 87-53 by Boise State in their previous action, and the Falcons dropped a 90-81 road decision to San Jose State on Saturday. Each team earned one win in last year’s season series.

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Fresno State Charged with Worst Loss of Season

The Fresno State Bulldogs find themselves near the bottom of the MWC standings. They have dropped four out of their last five games overall to fall to 2-7 in MWC action on the season with their lone win in that span coming against Wyoming. The Bulldogs have not been able to sustain any offensive momentum which continued in an ugly 87-53 home loss to Boise State on Saturday.

Orlando Robinson is struggling, going only 3 for 11 from the field in his last two games for a combined 15 points. The freshman forward is having a promising season overall, sporting an average of 12.9 PPG and 6.9 RPG. Nate Grimes is out indefinitely with a team suspension which is a big hit to their scoring. The senior forward is averaging 12.2 points and 9.5 rebounds per game. New Williams has reached double-digits in points in five out of his last six games. The senior guard enters this one averaging 12.1 points on 38% shooting.

The Bulldogs are ranked 165th overall in Ken Pomeroy’s college basketball ratings and hold a terrible 2-8 road record. Fresno State is only averaging 67.7 points on the season, placing them 277th in the country. They are holding opponents to 67.7 points, positioning them 137th overall.

Falcons' Defensive Issues Resume in Third Straight Defeat

The Air Force Falcons are looking to avoid their fourth straight defeat in this one. They are having trouble defensively which was evident in their 90-81 road loss to San Jose State on Saturday to dip to 3-6 in MWC play this season. Air Force features plenty of scoring threats but their defense has often not been able to contain their opposition.

Watch for Lavelle Scottie in this one. The senior forward is capable of big points on any given night and he came through with 25 points in Saturday’s win. Scottie has increased his season average to 15.1 PPG and 5.6 RPG. Ryan Swan has cooled off, shooting below 45% in five straight games. The senior center is having a strong season overall, filing an average of 13.5 PPG on a 50% clip from the field. A.J. Walker has netted 11 or fewer points in each of his last three games. The sophomore guard is now posting 11.9 PPG.

The Falcons are currently placed 174th in DI in Ken Pomeroy’s college basketball ratings and are 6-4 on their home floor. Air Force is scoring an average of 75.5 points, ranking them 84th in the country. They are allowing an average of 73 points, positioning them down at 270th overall.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

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I am siding with Air Force in this clash. Fresno State continues to stumble, losing four out of their last five games and the only victory in that span was against a terrible 5-16 Wyoming team. While Air Force hasn’t been much better, they feature significant scoring punch. The Falcons are shooting a stellar 46.5% as a team and Fresno State has surrendered 86 and 87 points respectively in their last two games.

Furthermore, the Bulldogs are not generating any significant offense, netting 65 or fewer points in four out of their last five games overall, so I am not concerned with the Falcons defense. They should definitely score enough points to cover the points.

Prediction: Air Force Falcons

Full-Game Total Pick

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This should be a high scoring tilt. As mentioned Air Force is potent offensively and they recently scored 85 points against Boise State and are coming off an 81 point effort against San Jose State on Saturday. The over is 5-1 in the Falcons’ last six games as a favorite.

In addition, while Air Force should contain Fresno State, they will squander points, conceding at least 78 points in four out of their last five games overall. The over is 16-5 in the Falcons’ last 21 games against a team with a winning percentage below .400, and that trend should prevail in this one.

Prediction: Over

Full-Game Prop Bet

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The over on the Air Force team total offered on PointsBet is a strong option. Air Force stands 16th in the entire country with a dazzling 38.7% efficiency from three-point range which is big as the Bulldogs' three-point defense is poor. They rank 248th in all of DI in three-point defense. Air Force is also especially productive on their home court which should continue in this game.

Prediction: AIr Force Team Total Over

Half-Time Side Pick

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I am taking the points with Fresno State on the halftime line. Air Force has not fared well offensively in the opening half recently, averaging 28.3 points over their last three games. The Bulldogs defense has been solid in the first half where they are holding opponents to 30 points. I expect a big second half from Air Force.

Prediction: Fresno State
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Written By Adam Rauzino

Adam has been a sports fanatic his entire life, closely following hockey, baseball, basketball and football. Adam enjoys analyzing various stats, as well as studying Sabermetrics and analytics to take his picks to a whole new level. Adam has a passion for writing about various sports as well as personal finance and has brought his talents to us here at Winners and Whiners. He graduated with a diploma in business marketing and business finance.